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AUD/USD

  • #78,861
  • Jun 7, 2014 4:48am Jun 7, 2014 4:48am
Quoting thodie
{quote} itīs not AUD strenght, its USD weakness... is there room for another decent push up?

imho the odds are higher for a bearish move, the only triangle that would fit here is a bearish barrier triangle. have a automated sell position in AUD/USD, so not really an effected bias through my open trades. {image}
Actually it's USD strength because of positive NFP and UR. But a healthy correction is expected unless negative data for AUD. There're fresh money coming from EUR some going to indices SP, DAX, etc some will be going to carry such as EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD. For hedgies and non leverage, few hundred pips fluctuation will not shake it out with positive swaps for long term.

Quoting Matts Micro
Lost my AU correlation ...again
Watching correlation you need to follow what is going around that ccy. Important data on Friday including CAD so need to watch AUD/CAD. Yes, it's not easy to hold positions targeting few hundred pips. Scalping can neglect all that just to mark on the chart from support to the next resistance.

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  • #78,862
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:16am Jun 7, 2014 5:16am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Nelson, Nice that you too are interested in seeing the market through other optics...the learning should always continue...and making a couple bucks whilst doing it, certainly cannot be frowned upon.... A couple of corrections though... The email was from me. Really, I do hate spam and hate sending that kind of shit out, but seriously...I've been a member of FF for a fin now and unless I was in trouble, never got an email from these guys...not saying that's necessarily a bad thing, really...FF is what it is.... The email was to continue...
... ...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #78,863
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:19am Jun 7, 2014 5:19am
Quoting Lamira
FOR THE HOOOORDE !!!!!!!!! http://us.battle.net/wow/en/choppers...oth-Choppers-8
Quoting Lamira
sorry
Sorry? For what? Long live the bikers and the steel horses we ride!! ...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #78,864
  • Jun 7, 2014 7:00am Jun 7, 2014 7:00am
Quoting Chanlie
it's over for AU i thinks AU will down next week {image}

Not so sure about that. AUD had many chances in the last 2 weeks to proceed lower but support at low 92's kept it higher. 23.6 Fib of 0.8656-0.9460 has supported the daily trend. This next leg higher is about shaking out the shorts before a resumption of the longer term bear trend. We will see 94-95 very soon.
  • #78,865
  • Jun 7, 2014 9:14am Jun 7, 2014 9:14am
I see the Aussie going higher aswell. Probably anther 100 pips. Could even go much higher more like 400 pips.. This is actually very likely 65% chance of this.
  • #78,866
  • Jun 7, 2014 10:42am Jun 7, 2014 10:42am
Quoting JTattheRanch
I see the Aussie going higher aswell. Probably anther 100 pips. Could even go much higher more like 400 pips.. This is actually very likely 65% chance of this.
I'd love to see more documentation on the probability you've mentioned. I don't disagree with the dynamics of the AU changing a good bit in the coming weeks because of the ECBs actions...

IMO: all eyes will be on the NZD this week and that will have impact on the AUD more than anything probably. Sure, some AUD announcements are on tap, but, they won't be center stage.

My prediction is for a choppy week (6/8/2014) on the pair with more direction the week after.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #78,867
  • Jun 7, 2014 8:10pm Jun 7, 2014 8:10pm
Good data from China, as the trade balance is higher than expected
Bad news for Aud, since the imports fell 1.6 percent, instead of the expected rise of 6.6 percent
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101740779
  • #78,868
  • Jun 7, 2014 8:18pm Jun 7, 2014 8:18pm
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  • #78,869
  • Jun 7, 2014 8:19pm Jun 7, 2014 8:19pm
Simple, most clients and customers are shorting the Aussie. Therefore it will go up sharply. Most of the time it goes the opposite direction the customers what it to go.
  • #78,870
  • Jun 7, 2014 8:33pm Jun 7, 2014 8:33pm
Have a look at the May 7 data impacts on A/U
  • #78,871
  • Jun 7, 2014 8:35pm Jun 7, 2014 8:35pm
Quoting JTattheRanch
Simple, most clients and customers are shorting the Aussie...
Please advise where did you get such info. Oanda shows them equal - http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/
  • #78,872
  • Jun 7, 2014 8:38pm Jun 7, 2014 8:38pm
Quoting JTattheRanch
Simple, most clients and customers are shorting the Aussie. Therefore it will go up sharply. Most of the time it goes the opposite direction the customers what it to go.

...welll...I sure can't argue with that other than to say my broker sent me a link to a platform with the buttons coded backwards...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #78,873
  • Jun 7, 2014 9:25pm Jun 7, 2014 9:25pm
Quoting Ken A
Have a look at the May 7 data impacts on A/U
whats the impact on the may 7 data previously for A/U ?
Learn to Trade is Important. Keep your bias & ego aside.
  • #78,874
  • Jun 7, 2014 10:36pm Jun 7, 2014 10:36pm
Quoting Chanlie
it's over for AU i thinks AU will down next week {image}

  1. good analysis Chanlie... its time to go up higher to 400 pips next few weeks catch the trend and the train..

  • #78,875
  • Jun 7, 2014 10:38pm Jun 7, 2014 10:38pm
I think it's fair to say that it will be choppy, as someone has already previously suggested.
  • #78,876
  • Jun 7, 2014 10:39pm Jun 7, 2014 10:39pm
Probably AUD will open high, but not much.

Based on COT index , current Chinese house market and China local gov debt, I assume AUD will move to 0.8x area shortly.

Only If China release strong stimulus policy to improve infrastructure investment, otherwise aud is no way to go back 0.95+.


Export :195.47B USD，+7%；Import 159.55B USD，-1.6%；

BTW: Recently Chinese major banks are not willing to lend home loan, they think house market is overpriced and they don't have enough cash. This never happened before in recent 15 years.
  • #78,877
  • Jun 7, 2014 10:40pm Jun 7, 2014 10:40pm
Quoting eugenyk
{image}
what website do u use ?
  • #78,878
  • Edited 10:59pm Jun 7, 2014 10:43pm | Edited 10:59pm
Quoting chaosbun
{quote} whats the impact on the may 7 data previously for A/U ?
May 07 was positive for A/U and spike about +80 pips, IIRC.

This June 07 data may have positive impacts on A/U as markets have time to digest what was going on previous year 2013 due to the inflated false invoices to manipulate capital flows. Just personal opinion, will have to wait for the facts on Sunday or pre market opening. A/U trade balance was deficit for the same period spike down around -25 pips then bounce up following ECB decision to current level.
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Edit: and more important data in the coming week
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  • #78,879
  • Jun 7, 2014 11:01pm Jun 7, 2014 11:01pm
Quoting Mr.Kane
{quote} what website do u use ?
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
  • #78,880
  • Jun 7, 2014 11:06pm Jun 7, 2014 11:06pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} May 07 was positive for A/U and spike about +80 pips, IIRC. This June 07 data may have positive impacts on A/U as markets have time to digest what was going on previous year 2013 due to the inflated false invoices to manipulate capital flows. Just personal opinion, will have to wait for the facts on Sunday or pre market opening. A/U trade balance was deficit for the same period spike down around -25 pips then bounce up following ECB decision to current level. {image} Edit: and more important data in the coming week {image}
The 80 pips spike u mention for may 7 was during asia market or the market before asia.
Thanks for the information.
Learn to Trade is Important. Keep your bias & ego aside.
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