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  • #903,301
  • Jun 7, 2014 10:38am Jun 7, 2014 10:38am
Quoting Trenderer
{quote} I understand the golden ratio as I took several calculus classes in college. My point was that even if it doesn't really apply to the market, enough people use it thus making it a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy
Oh... I just must (Stop me Ken...please....) ...lol

Well sir, you took calculus and that's great. (Just basic math for me as I only made 11 grades before "life" got in the way ) So you understand the "math". Cool!

But just as it does with all other things in life, it applies directly to the market. Self fulfilling prophecy? Hmmm... Yes, you could call it that. But it has nothing whatsoever to do with how many people use, or don't use it in the market(s).
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #903,302
  • Jun 7, 2014 10:39am Jun 7, 2014 10:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}..enough, i have wasted enough of my time and enough of others who read this. i am here to learn, not to throw darts at others trading plans i dont understand. if 500 pip drawdown is ones method, god bless them. all i ask is tell others you use a 500 pip stop and the % of risk, before telling them to follow. if you want to continue to play thug ball. then you welcome here will be gone.
Talk, Talk, and more talking ...
I never expected u to take the trade, anyway. It's too abstract and too obvious, you can't hide behind the 44,000 posts with all the possible levels and the impossible ones - while a trade call like this hanging over you neck. This one will make u exposed, and shows your trading skills on the spot ..

On the bold part, i never posted - as far as i remember wide stop loses like 500 pips - I DON'T USE STOP LOSES AT ALL BTW (I manage the draw down) Here, since i have no idea who might be persuaded or influenced by my opinion, i post an actual stop lose ..
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #903,303
  • Jun 7, 2014 10:40am Jun 7, 2014 10:40am
Quoting Trenderer
{quote} I understand the golden ratio as I took several calculus classes in college. My point was that even if it doesn't really apply to the market, enough people use it thus making it a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy
Golden ratios are everywhere toilet bowl measurement tree trunk why should it be an exception to price movement
  • #903,304
  • Jun 7, 2014 10:52am Jun 7, 2014 10:52am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Golden ratios are everywhere toilet bowl measurement tree trunk why should it be an exception to price movement
Toilet bowls and tree trunks? ... LOL... odd examples but yes, absolutely.

But let's give out a real hint here Ken and then let them take it from there for whatever it's worth. The Golden Ratio is aptly named. It explains from a mathematical construct the very structure of All things in life including LIFE itself. This includes the very structure of our own DNA. So it's no surprise that all we see, do and think in this "reality?" conforms to that very sequence.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #903,305
  • Jun 7, 2014 10:54am Jun 7, 2014 10:54am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Oh... I just must (Stop me Ken...please....) ...lol Well sir, you took calculus and that's great. (Just basic math for me as I only made 11 grades before "life" got in the way ) So you understand the "math". Cool! But just as it does with all other things in life, it applies directly to the market. Self fulfilling prophecy? Hmmm... Yes, you could call it that. But it has nothing whatsoever to do with how many people use, or don't use it in the market(s).
If that's true, then great. It gives me even more confidence in using it. My point is that even if it wasn't, I'd still pay attention to it because of its popularity
  • #903,306
  • Jun 7, 2014 10:56am Jun 7, 2014 10:56am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Toilet bowls and tree trunks? ... LOL... odd examples but yes, absolutely.
Haha I am sure they get the point. Simple googling will bring them to new horizon
  • #903,307
  • Jun 7, 2014 11:07am Jun 7, 2014 11:07am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Golden ratios are everywhere toilet bowl measurement tree trunk why should it be an exception to price movement
I don't know about toilet bowls since they're not natural constructions whereas price movement could most certainly be since it's created by people (in most cases). However, even price movement doesn't conform to fib ratios all the time
  • #903,308
  • Jun 7, 2014 11:07am Jun 7, 2014 11:07am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Vachus, I think you suffer from the same misunderstanding that a lot of people have: his trading style isn't about being right or wrong, it's about probabilities. The technical analysis indicates certain targets and thus high probability trades if something else doesn't happen. The arguments about fundamental trends (energy, etc) are mostly oberservations which (as far as I see) don't influence the technical trading or targets much, if at all. If you read Gatorinla's posts you will acutally know what the answer to this 'challenge' should...
Larry, since i placed on ignore once - which is not the case now, i think i own u an apology first. When that happened, i think almost 6 months ago i was reading the forum on the road, through my phone 3G internet and i had to eliminate most of the people, because the page was taking forever to download. ( That's what i remember, but i have no idea why i placed u back then on ignore ) I completely understand Gator's system, but My conflict was Gatorlina started long time before the recent peak, as old as late 2012 ... this merely the escalation!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #903,309
  • Jun 7, 2014 11:15am Jun 7, 2014 11:15am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Haha I am sure they get the point. Simple googling will bring them to new horizon
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #903,310
  • Jun 7, 2014 11:32am Jun 7, 2014 11:32am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Toilet bowls and tree trunks? ... LOL... odd examples but yes, absolutely. But let's give out a real hint here Ken and then let them take it from there for whatever it's worth. The Golden Ratio is aptly named. It explains from a mathematical construct the very structure of All things in life including LIFE itself. This includes the very structure of our own DNA. So it's no surprise that all we see, do and think in this "reality?" conforms to that very sequence.
but, but, but......

with Fib-levels sooo many, which one is the right one? Inquiring minds want to know?

And that leads us to the ultimately question: how do we trade this many levels?

And how do we deal we the overshots/undershots, which do happen not so seldom?


If you want to bet big on Fibs, or mofus or whatever, You may do it Gator style. Very tight SL and let the winners run.


So please tell me/us, how you do trade the fibs......


Thanks in advance and have all a great weekend
  • #903,311
  • Jun 7, 2014 11:37am Jun 7, 2014 11:37am
Quoting Trenderer
{quote} I don't know about toilet bowls since they're not natural constructions whereas price movement could most certainly be since it's created by people (in most cases). However, even price movement doesn't conform to fib ratios all the time


If someone is interested in wave relationships, look at the following link:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post6952235


there you can download the great work of Swannell, and you can see, that wave relationships happen in a wide array (and not necessarily in fib-relationship)
  • #903,312
  • Jun 7, 2014 11:49am Jun 7, 2014 11:49am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} If someone is interested in wave relationships, look at the following link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post6952235 there you can download the great work of Swannell, and you can see, that wave relationships happen in a wide array (and not necessarily in fib-relationship)
Great graphics (and wave counts) you are having there in your"Club". Will visit you more often (and will read this Swannell pdf, thanks for it).

Schöne Pfingsten
  • #903,313
  • Jun 7, 2014 12:03pm Jun 7, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} but, but, but...... with Fib-levels sooo many, 1) which one is the right one? Inquiring minds want to know? And that leads us to the ultimately question: 2) how do we trade this many levels? 3) And how do we deal we the overshots/undershots, which do happen not so seldom? 4) please tell me/us, how you do trade the fibs...... Thanks in advance and have all a great weekend
I know you're just making fun here infinitus. (I'd use your real name but don't know if you'd care for that?) Oh yes, I watch you surf your waves in the club and have great respect for the way you do it.

The simple answers to the questions in bold?

1) Which ones all depend on your style of trading. Do you seek small quick moves at a higher risk per trade? Or longer slower ones at a lower risk?

2) Almost the same as question #1. Less levels on larger TF's, more on smaller.

3) Overshoot? Take it for all it's worth. Undershoot? Watch PA for stalls, bounces, turns at SR and again, take it for all it's worth.

4) I actually use all of the above as I trade swings to scalps. Although I prefer swings much more. Not in a position to Position Trade....yet.

As my sig suggests, The base of my trading is SR+PA. Don't think I need to explain that one, especially to you. Combined with fibs and harmonic ratios, I find it to be a very suitable approach for me. In the end, that's what matters right?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #903,314
  • Jun 7, 2014 12:10pm Jun 7, 2014 12:10pm
This is the chart i'm looking at , the USA Federal Reserve Bank Balance sheet ... http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...centtrends.htm
- As long as no European government or periphery, doesn't declare bankruptcy,
Or an institutional failure or deadlock, in the Key European countries such as Germany,.. etc
Or some referendum of an EU-Exist,
As long as Europe outlook remains stable

The EURUSD path of least resistance, is UP and more UP ..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FEDS-Balance-Sheet.PNG Size: 28 KB
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #903,315
  • Jun 7, 2014 12:17pm Jun 7, 2014 12:17pm
Quoting Vachus
This is the chart i'm looking at , the USA Federal Reserve Bank Balance sheet ... http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...centtrends.htm - As long as no European government or periphery, doesn't declare bankruptcy, Or an institutional failure or deadlock, in the Key European countries such as Germany,.. etc Or some referendum of an EU-Exist, As long as Europe outlook remains stable The EURUSD path of least resistance, is UP and more UP .. {image}

I have problems seeng the development of the euro with this chart? And as you are from Greece you know that nothing is ok in Europe. It is hardly improving.
  • #903,316
  • Jun 7, 2014 12:19pm Jun 7, 2014 12:19pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} If someone is interested in wave relationships, look at the following link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post6952235 there you can download the great work of Swannell, and you can see, that wave relationships happen in a wide array (and not necessarily in fib-relationship)
Thanks. Will check out
  • #903,317
  • Jun 7, 2014 12:42pm Jun 7, 2014 12:42pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} I have problems seeng the development of the euro with this chart? And as you are from Greece you know that nothing is ok in Europe. It is hardly improving.
Because you are trapped in the 2010 argument " Short the Euro, it's going to break up ". (Which is done, over and finished on August 2012 with ECB announcing OMT) I have said back in 2012, and continuously the European Union is not an economic union, it's a political one. But in any case, I'm not betting on Europe recovering fast, on the contrary i'm betting on USA. If you speed up the recovery, Dollars will exist the economy either searching for imports ( goods and services) or risky assets. (Risk on) But global financial markets goes into panic mode, or like recently the bond sell-off, the Dollar start strengthening as investors continue to liquidate assets, for a currency safety / Zero cash position. (Risk off)

If you are buying the U.S. Dollar, you simply betting for USA sluggish growth and going back into recession. Something, that was made clear isn't acceptable by either the Feds or China. While in the process, undermining the second biggest economy of global earth (Europe).

So you may have Bloomberg on ur Dollar trade, Wall street journal and most of investment banks like GS, CS and BNPP - i have the Feds and China ... who do you think, is gonna win?!

* The chart below is for USA trade balance, -3$ Billion for the month of April, reported on May 2014. ( Forecasts were for the deficit to drop 4$, not increase) Ironically, Germany got on the same period a positive +1.7$ Billion add to it's surplus ... and more of these will continue to come and the Dollar gets drained!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade-Deficit-USA.PNG Size: 137 KB
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #903,318
  • Jun 7, 2014 12:58pm Jun 7, 2014 12:58pm
Vachus!
quote
If you are buying the U.S. Dollar, you simply betting for USA sluggish growth and going back into recession.


Isnt this we are abouth to see US going back to recession and this will drag Europe down.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...te-300x300.jpgDuring the first three months of this year, the U.S. economy contracted at a 1 percent annual rate. Despite this, mainstream economists flooded the mainstream media with assurances that much better days are just around the corner on Thursday. In fact, many of them boldly predicted that U.S. GDP would grow at a 3 or 4 percent annual rate in the second quarter. None of them seem the least bit concerned that another major recession is rapidly approaching. Instead, they just blamed the bad number for the first quarter.

AS you said the Trade balanse in eurosone was much better than i US strange with this high level of euro. This must be the low YAUN/USD and import from China.
  • #903,319
  • Jun 7, 2014 1:05pm Jun 7, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
Isnt this we are abouth to see US going back to recession and this will drag Europe down.
Yes, the USA economy will be back into recession - while the Feds comes to Greece, relax and drink some Ouzo .... No, at the first signs of Economic sluggishness- the Tapering course will be halted if not totally reverse! (U.S. Monetary policy remains accommodation while the path of Tapering is not on persist course. remember) One way or another, the supply of cheap Dollars will continue ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #903,320
  • Edited 1:34pm Jun 7, 2014 1:15pm | Edited 1:34pm
They will end the tapering before they start again and if US goes int recession. Europe will go further into depression. I know a lot abouth Cyprus and investments. Nothing is hardly changed there It is so depressive I hardly go there any more.. A new market uncertantaty will kill south of Europe. The market is also ready for an correction and then we se the safe heaven currency USD.

If there was a change in the big traders position from short to long we will see 1,3590 first again. And if US need to weaken their currency. The euro need it even more.

Apart from this I agree in many of your thoughts.
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