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  • #903,261
  • Jun 7, 2014 4:20am Jun 7, 2014 4:20am
Quoting MarianneOslo
The rate(euro) was down to minus and this is not a sign for an improving economy. The stock market should decline because of this but instead we see arally
My take on it is after the announcement, people got out of Euro and into global reserve $, then out of $ into stocks.
With record low cash rates everywhere, where else is smart money going to make more money?
Stocks and the economy have not been linked for sometime now as CB's slash rates.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #903,262
  • Edited 4:55am Jun 7, 2014 4:29am | Edited 4:55am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} My take on it is after the announcement, people got out of Euro and into global reserve $, then out of $ into stocks. With record low cash rates everywhere, where else is smart money going to make more money? Stocks and the economy have not been linked for sometime now as CB's slash rates.

I see the picture but the big money then should go to the real estate market in south europe with cheap lending of money. So in this way it may a rise in the euro. The importan thing anyway is not the locgic but where the money flows goes.
The volume thursday and friday I think was not changing positions into stock market but changing the positions from short to long in the euro.
The money flow should also be loan in euro and place the currency in another currency with a higher interest rate and this should make the euro decline.
I think this also explains the increase of NOK we saw on friday. In Noway you can get 3% in a saving account a lot different from minus 0,1 in the euro.

Some articles from december 2012 showed big money flow into scandinavian currencies when the swiss introduced negative interest rates on the CHF.
The money now must be flowning out of the euro.
  • #903,263
  • Jun 7, 2014 4:53am Jun 7, 2014 4:53am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} I see the picture but the big money then should go to the real estate market in south europe with cheap lending of money. So in this way it may a rise in the euro. The importan thing anyway is not the locgic but where the money flows goes. The volume thursday and friday I think was not changing positions into stock market but changing the positions from short to long in the euro. The money flow should also be loan in euro and place the currency in another currency with a higher interest rate and this should make the euro decline....
Marianne, not wanting to be rude here, but do you realize this has already been catastrophic and has no sense at all?

That's exactly what has happened to PIIGS: cheap lending of money to do surreal things without the tinniest common sense.

Big money has few options now, it's that simple. Don't know how smart is smart money, but things can't be how they used to be pre-2007 for a while. Earnings can't be the same unless some investor or some group of investors seize a great opportunity here or there in some specific spots, but that's it. Sharks are running out of big meat.

Just look at the big banks. They've been borrowing money at a minimal interest from the ECB and then have lended the same money to finance public debt of countries to get 6%-7% interest in return. A neverending loop. The same goes for other big investors. Meanwhile, there's no investing in industry or private companies that do things and make things unless they are in important stock indexes. Thus, there can be another bubble in some of those indexes.

So how smart is smart money?
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  • #903,264
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:03am Jun 7, 2014 5:03am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Gatorinla , Let's make this a more constructive argument, to put an end to this Pickering: Currently price is trading at unique opportunity, $1.364 and the Dollar Index 80.42 : I, Say $1.42 before $1.30 ? * It almost known to everyone i'm long, WILL U TAKE THE OPPOSITE TRADE?! If you accept, i'm gonna make this post the last one here. - In case $1.30 got hit, i'm not gonna post another post here or under any name, till the day i die ... but if you lose, on the day price...
Hi neighbor,

1-How can be outcome of this more constructive? We will lost you or gator at the end theoretically.


2-Why would any one should take a trade because he/she challenged.

3-You put your analysis on the table, he puts his analysis on the table. And we all read them. If there is any positive outcome from those 2 different analysis we use them or not according to our analysis.

4-If someone blindly follows someone else analysis he/she should stop trading at the first place.

5-You and him are different type of traders. He trades short time frames compared to you with tight stop loss and if he is wrong he took the loss and moves on to the other opportunity while you are using long time frames.

6-You believe EZ will be perform much better than USA while he believes other way around on the long run.

7- As far as i can understand you are using fundamentals much more than technicals while he use his mofu system in his analysis.

So my friend I really believe there won't be any positive outcome from this challenge.


I like to read every idea in this thread, I choose everybody to stay here.

Regards.
  • #903,265
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:03am Jun 7, 2014 5:03am
Good Valley!

I am not saying it is smart money but more trying to see the money flow just now. Is anything done after the financial crisis very smart?

I think the euro must go down due to fundamental reasons. This is why we have have seen a negative interst rate. The swiss did the same in 2012 but they are still struggeling.
So it is in the interst of the euro to change positions from euro to other currencies. One of the currencies are the scandinavian currencies.To buy risky loans in Europe is different fram same and protected money in other currencies.
  • #903,266
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:05am Jun 7, 2014 5:05am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} some of us do but it is noticeable how people prefer to respond to other posts instead. I used to get loads of questions and comments when I posted a chart nowadays not so much, I think too many still want to get rich quick from $100 and have no patience for trading proper setups and prefer their gut feel.... nevermind they can do as they choose
This does not mean somebody has opened your charts as 2 or 3 tabs in their browser and look at them time to time during trading.
  • #903,267
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:09am Jun 7, 2014 5:09am
hi its my first post here. new to fxtrading and i am always curious about how long does it usually take to double your account balance (ie. 100% return on initial capital) , for an experience fx trader?

i am also of the opinion that the market is due an retracement for the drop from 1.3993@ May 8)

1.3680 is an important level and should be the center of gravity for the next week.

to judge the strength of the bulls i would closely watch 1.3780-1.3800

and it could be a range for mid-term (4-6 week) short entry.

Thanks for all of you who post here as i am new to the EURUSD market.
  • #903,268
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:13am Jun 7, 2014 5:13am
Quoting albchr
Does anyone actually post a chart with their analysis in here anymore? Or is it all just thoughts now? If just thoughts, I think it will go up and down not necessarily in that order.
You are right :
in dayli , the blue channel been broken so its going to go down at least as height of the channel
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdprodaily.png Size: 44 KB

In weekly an old resist line ( red one ) been crossed few times but as you see never crossed the orange trend above it YET ( Its forex ! nothing is 100% bro )
so there we have a downward again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdproweekly.png Size: 39 KB
People wont learn to post analysis in forums not "I think its down/up!"
  • #903,269
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:14am Jun 7, 2014 5:14am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} I think too many still want to get rich quick from $100
Getting rich from $100 is completely undervalued cause you can loose your account much faster

It is much easier to trade with a fat account and use low leverage only. That way you can live for weeks deeply underwater.
Try that with $100!
100 pips wrong and you are history.
  • #903,270
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:22am Jun 7, 2014 5:22am
Quoting MarianneOslo
Good Valley! I am not saying it is smart money but more trying to see the money flow just now. Is anything done after the financial crisis very smart? I think the euro must go down due to fundamental reasons. This is why we have have seen a negative interst rate. The swiss did the same in 2012 but they are still struggeling. So it is in the interst of the euro to change positions from euro to other currencies. One of the currencies are the scandinavian currencies.To buy risky loans in Europe is different fram same and protected money in other currencies....
Yep, trouble is ECB's official mission is not controlling the currency's value, only inflation and that's it.

Of course they want to lower the yuro, France and Italy want this badly to export (while they should be fixing a lot of things and they aren't). But setting this "tax/fine" of -0.1% to banks can only make them lose 0.1% of their benefit and that's all. Measures are supposed to disincourage them for lending money to public debt and give it to the "real economy", but will it work?

If you put this huge mass of money into the economy, yuro falls. But that's a collateral effect. But don't get it wrong. Interest rate are negative for that bank thing, not for everything. Interest rates have lowered only to 0.15%, while everyone and their dog expected 0.1%.

Thursday started at one point, and we fell with Count Draghi's speech. And then we rose. And we finished the day above the point we started off. That tells you how impressed the market was...

Not saying it won't fall. I'm expecting 1.309-1.31 soon. As soon as market and BS wants it there...

Added: then there's the energy / costs of things issue, big issue. Important issue. Europe is losing steam at a great pace...
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  • #903,271
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:29am Jun 7, 2014 5:29am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.png Size: 43 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4.png Size: 43 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly.png Size: 52 KB




We will need to break 1.3683 and stay to see further upside and 1.3985. It will perhaps range a bit inside 1.35 and 1.37
  • #903,272
  • Jun 7, 2014 5:52am Jun 7, 2014 5:52am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Gatorinla , Let's make this a more constructive argument, to put an end to this Pickering: Currently price is trading at unique opportunity, $1.364 and the Dollar Index 80.42 : I, Say $1.42 before $1.30 ? * It almost known to everyone i'm long, WILL U TAKE THE OPPOSITE TRADE?! If you accept, i'm gonna make this post the last one here. - In case $1.30 got hit, i'm not gonna post another post here or under any name, till the day i die ... but if you lose, on the day price hits $1.42 you Do the same! So, let's see your trading skills on the...
Vachus, I think you suffer from the same misunderstanding that a lot of people have: his trading style isn't about being right or wrong, it's about probabilities. The technical analysis indicates certain targets and thus high probability trades if something else doesn't happen. The arguments about fundamental trends (energy, etc) are mostly oberservations which (as far as I see) don't influence the technical trading or targets much, if at all.

If you read Gatorinla's posts you will acutally know what the answer to this 'challenge' should be, in fact I think I can find at least 10 posts where it says: 3102 before 4146 would be normal. But nobody can say for sure.

So what you're proposing is in essence a bet. What does it prove? Just flip a coin and you win or lose, what does it matter? Don't chew yourself up over nothing.

Gator in my view is a mastertrader, and one who consistently posts his views, in a timely matter, and he really helps people with great patience over the span of many years, if they ask. (Well, the lingo is something that needs getting used to, reason why I didn't really read his posts for my first year here on FF.) And I actually think he doesn't have a big ego.
Nevertheless, I would never like this forum or thread be one where only one view or school perseveres, the great thing is the diversity and constant flow of new people bringing fresh ideas, even if most of it is noise. I never really understood the roots of the Attila/Gator dispute, but guess it's got something to do with the stated misunderstanding.

Maybe you should put him on ignore and safe your energy for trading. You might remember I was angry at you when you did that to me. This, because I really think I didn't warrant to be put on ignore (). And I wouldn't ignore you, because you tend to have interesting fundi information or at least views, even if you also tend to be abrasive... But in this case it might be for the best, instead of having pointless and distractive arguments. If you don't want to read any post of him or the (not existing) 'Mofu-gang', that's the way.
Fail better.
  • #903,273
  • Jun 7, 2014 6:36am Jun 7, 2014 6:36am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Hi neighbor, 1-How can be outcome of this more constructive? We will lost you or gator at the end theoretically. 2-Why would any one should take a trade because he/she challenged. 3-You put your analysis on the table, he puts his analysis on the table. And we all read them. If there is any positive outcome from those 2 different analysis we use them or not according to our analysis. 4-If someone blindly follows someone else analysis he/she should stop trading at the first place. 5-You and him are different type of traders. He trades short...
Nothing to add here
  • #903,274
  • Jun 7, 2014 6:48am Jun 7, 2014 6:48am
Quoting milam
{quote}
After a discussion with a friend (engineer by trade, used to work as a professional sports coach for two decades) about this scientific proof of mine, I wanted to use a different approach. So I take the number of worldcups up to date (this years is the no. 20) and use the the number of the cup that were won, we get these for Italy: 2, 3, 12 and 18. Germany won world cups 5, 10 and 14. Now you use the fib-tool for these and get the following picture:

Italy: next win in cup no. 28 (2046)
Attached Image

Germany: next win in cup no. 20 (this year)
Attached Image


Q.E.D.
Fail better.
  • #903,275
  • Jun 7, 2014 6:56am Jun 7, 2014 6:56am
Quoting wisemadguy
{quote} You are right : in dayli , the blue channel been broken so its going to go down at least as height of the channel {image} In weekly an old resist line ( red one ) been crossed few times but as you see never crossed the orange trend above it YET ( Its forex ! nothing is 100% bro ) so there we have a downward again {image}
... Now there's an analysis folks can sink their teeth into. Whether we agree or not is not important. It's a logical, thought out view that gives food for thought. Very nice!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #903,276
  • Jun 7, 2014 6:57am Jun 7, 2014 6:57am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Hi neighbor, 1-How can be outcome of this more constructive? We will lost you or gator at the end theoretically. 2-Why would any one should take a trade because he/she challenged. 3-You put your analysis on the table, he puts his analysis on the table. And we all read them. If there is any positive outcome from those 2 different analysis we use them or not according to our analysis. 4-If someone blindly follows someone else analysis he/she should stop trading at the first place. 5-You and him are different type of traders. He trades short...
Sums it up perfectly! Well said.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #903,277
  • Jun 7, 2014 7:34am Jun 7, 2014 7:34am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Gatorinla , Let's make this a more constructive argument, to put an end to this Pickering: Currently price is trading at unique opportunity, $1.364 and the Dollar Index 80.42 : I, Say $1.42 before $1.30 ? * It almost known to everyone i'm long, WILL U TAKE THE OPPOSITE TRADE?! If you accept, i'm gonna make this post the last one here. - In case $1.30 got hit, i'm not gonna post another post here or under any name, till the day i die ... but if you lose, on the day price hits $1.42 you Do the same! So, let's see your trading skills on the...
Are you by accident a relative of Steve Walker?

Can you pinpoint the bs-part of your post?
  • #903,278
  • Edited 8:14am Jun 7, 2014 8:00am | Edited 8:14am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} After a discussion with a friend (engineer by trade, used to work as a professional sports coach for two decades) about this scientific proof of mine, I wanted to use a different approach. So I take the number of worldcups up to date (this years is the no. 20) and use the the number of the cup that were won, we get these for Italy: 2, 3, 12 and 18. Germany won world cups 5, 10 and 14. Now you use the fib-tool for these and get the following picture: Italy: next win in cup no. 28 (2046) {image} Germany: next win in cup no. 20 (this year)...
lol

Fibonacci are an illusion, they do not work, they are there because you want to believe they are there, they are not facts, like the one I already showed to you previously which appended in Berlin (your home) in 2006..... I can give you more fact if you like, Madrid 1982:

http://www.la7.it/calcio/rivedila7/p...06-2014-132739

Still love ya
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #903,279
  • Jun 7, 2014 8:07am Jun 7, 2014 8:07am
Quoting albchr
Does anyone actually post a chart with their analysis in here anymore? Or is it all just thoughts now? If just thoughts, I think it will go up and down not necessarily in that order.


Yes all BS.......no facts only words.....
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #903,280
  • Jun 7, 2014 8:16am Jun 7, 2014 8:16am
Yeah but the charts are in such low resolution it is difficult to read off the ordinate and abscissa axes.
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