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  • #903,221
  • Edited 7:11pm Jun 6, 2014 1:59pm | Edited 7:11pm
Quoting TomTheTrader
Hey guys ,... as i can see you have a fun here ,... As i had some profit during last three days i don't trade today and just watch how the market behave.
We didn't see much retracement in the latest downmove. To have retracement you need good volumes, which I don't see now. US is certainly getting stronger but still needs support. However, it looks like Draghi has more tricks in his hat than what common people and press can think. From last ECB meeting we learned that deflation is not an immediate risk but prolonged low inflation is. ECB measures will take 3 quarters to take effect, which means that inflation and interest rates will stay low until the end of the year at least. We also know that one of the main factors affecting low prices now is the exchange rate. Draghi recently revised down his inflation expectations for 2014 and 2015 which means that the exchange rate is expected high for a while probably to support US economy as tapering comes to an end. If America keeps its pace with the good things, a slow upmove in EURUSD is more likely. With no immediate risks for the world economy, a shy risk taking approach is the way ahead inmho.
  • #903,222
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:05pm Jun 6, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting wisemadguy
{quote} Not only in technical analysis its going down again because it hits a strong resistance and came back but indicators and volumes show buyers are at the top levels so probability of more sells and at least for short period of time , euro/usd downward would make more sense however nothing is 100% in Forex
You got that right. Let's wait to see what happens. I just find it weird how the "bulls" have been so excited the last 24 hours, when during the last 3+ weeks it has been a sell fest. I guess long term eu is oversold, but I never look at trading that way. I wish all of us could profit together, so we can all be jolly and maybe plan a big old reunion. Unfortunately, expectations are different, so there for we all trade differently.
Ever thought about how much money you could earn wagering against yourself?
  • #903,223
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:06pm Jun 6, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting MarkoTrd
{quote} Sorry what you mean with more time?
Time for the swing or one can say for the next peaking candle (no matter what direction).

You might have noticed that depending on the TF there is always time (i.e. candles) between the peaks in both directions.

As I mainly observe such estimations for time on H4 I get a much better feeling for how long it might take to get to a target X.

If you read this forum a lot you sometimes can get the feeling it only takes minutes or a few hours to go to a target that someone of the big boys is calling here. But most of the time this is not true. It is more to the truth that it takes days, if not weeks.

Most of the time I think in swings not smaller than about 18 hours. But do not think its easy. Sometimes you can have the peak (swing point) after 1-2 hours and then have 16-17 hours where nearly nothing happens or vice versa. Very seldom the peak is exactly in the middle of my personal minimum timeframe.

Gator has a big advantage here: He is only interested in levels and does not care about how long it takes to get there. My trading style is different.
  • #903,224
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:09pm Jun 6, 2014 2:09pm
Quoting Nan-ook
WTF? Whats happend now?
It moved three pips -
  • #903,225
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:10pm Jun 6, 2014 2:10pm
now we can talk
Quoting MAM.Trader
erusud 3650 then direction negotiable
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #903,226
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:12pm Jun 6, 2014 2:12pm
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} It moved three pips -
I have move 10 pips
  • #903,227
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:13pm Jun 6, 2014 2:13pm
Quoting MAM.Trader
now we can talk {quote}
Yup it popped, and then went quiet again. I wonder if most of the orders today after NFP were buys or sells....
Ever thought about how much money you could earn wagering against yourself?
  • #903,228
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:17pm Jun 6, 2014 2:17pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} We didn't seen much retracement in the latest downmove. To have retracement you need good volumes, which I don't see now. US is certainly getting stronger but still needs support. However, it looks like Draghi has more tricks in his hat than what common people and press can think. From last ECB meeting we learned that deflation is not an immediate risk but prolonged low inflation is. ECB measures will take 3 quarters to take effect, which means that inflation and interest rates will stay low until the end of the year at least. We also know...
Actualy agree with all here written.

The main question is still whose quests are more important ,...european ? or american ? Hard to say. As you have written the low prices and "cheap money" are able to send an impulse to people spend more money so in that case companies will have greater profit = higher GDP ( in general i mean). As i have learned the european economy is dependant on american. But there is still a main question who will profit more from this low interest rate ,... Europe or America ? If we can get an answer we can get a result which currency will be stronger.
Many green pips guys
  • #903,229
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:27pm Jun 6, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting Nan-ook
{quote} I have move 10 pips
Yes it had to.

It had a micro peak to the south, so it had to produce a micro peak to the north before it can produce a bigger mini-peak to the south again.
Micro-Swings within mini-swings within normal-swings and so on.
  • #903,230
  • Jun 6, 2014 2:28pm Jun 6, 2014 2:28pm
Monday
Quoting MAM.Trader
now we can talk {quote}
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #903,231
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:04pm Jun 6, 2014 3:04pm
Eur/jpy looks ready to retest 140 , be interesting to see if it makes it before close and what's going to happen come monday. Have my sell in there with a tight stop and a TP at 138.25 in case it does a large spike down for any reason.
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  • #903,232
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:10pm Jun 6, 2014 3:10pm
Quoting TomTheTrader
{quote} Actualy agree with all here written. The main question is still whose quests are more important ,...european ? or american ? Hard to say. As you have written the low prices and "cheap money" are able to send an impulse to people spend more money so in that case companies will have greater profit = higher GDP ( in general i mean). As i have learned the european economy is dependant on american. But there is still a main question who will profit more from this low interest rate ,... Europe or America ? If we can get an answer we can get a...
I have just seen this http://www.commitmentsoftraders.com/weekly.htm . I don't know what time last Thursday this data was recorded...if before or after ECB meeting. However, sellers seem to be still there where we left them. Scary if you have longs.
  • #903,233
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:24pm Jun 6, 2014 3:24pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I have just seen this http://www.commitmentsoftraders.com/weekly.htm . I don't know what time last Thursday this data was recorded...if before or after ECB meeting. However, sellers seem to be still there where we left them. Scary if you have longs.
CFTC says that eur net shorts increased to 33k from previous week 16K
  • #903,234
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:28pm Jun 6, 2014 3:28pm
Goldman says EUR/USD price action was puzzling on ECB day.
These are guys who watch the markets for years all-day long, working with all sorts of flows info and economic depertaments all for them. Still they think it was puzzling.

I will never understand this. I will never understand these guys, how is it possible? how is it possible for them to find it puzzling.
  • #903,235
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:31pm Jun 6, 2014 3:31pm
Gator, do you give any credit for 1.38019 (my broker's number for 150% coming from the up path from failed 1.3102) as a turning point and then south?

Looking at a historical horizontal line, not a bad level for that as well...

Was giving more chance for between 1.3717 and 1.3745 but...

Also not seeing the "below 1.3662-ish" thing as clear as you. See more probable choices, specially looking at daily/weekly candles.
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  • #903,236
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:35pm Jun 6, 2014 3:35pm
From the current level of the EURUSD we cannot be sure in which direction it will go next. Let's see how it keeps behaving next week.
  • #903,237
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:37pm Jun 6, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting emmalee25
Goldman says EUR/USD price action was puzzling on ECB day.
If you started the year promoting to your clients, how the U.S. Dollar will rise over the course of the next 12 month. While every quarter, they keep revise EURUSD forcaste higher- it becomes harder to back off just now ... so, they are hoping for the best
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #903,238
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:40pm Jun 6, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} CFTC says that eur net shorts increased to 33k from previous week 16K
non comms/ which include investment banks were still massively shorting this pair last Thursday....mmm food for thought
  • #903,239
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:49pm Jun 6, 2014 3:49pm
Gidday EUR/US

Well this is hard work

I will keep to small size trades

Bit risky to load up in any direction

I see some talk about 1.40 again

Thought they will make the EUR stay at lower levels

Wonder if they will pump up NZ an AUD
  • #903,240
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:54pm Jun 6, 2014 3:54pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} If you started the year promoting to your clients, how the U.S. Dollar will rise over the course of the next 12 month. While every quarter, they keep revise EURUSD forcaste higher- it becomes harder to back off just now ... so, they are hoping for the best
Well they were Euro bulls since 2013 and called 1.40 correctly. But last quarter (I think) they flipped sides and turned bearish on the euro to go under 1.30 so I don't know how they are doing now. But the thing I find strinking is how they spend so much time reading markets and market reactions still they find it puzzling.
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