EURUSD

I had 1.3670 as High at 7 day High/Low and 1.3661 as Mid and 1.3669 as UM at 13 day High/Low for 6/5/2014( Because it is now 6/6/2014 here)

maybe so. we closed a week and a month below recently

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...49#post7517029

Volatility has been very low recently. I wonder if the movie " Wolf of Wall Street" has anything to do with that. I mean now that investors know that their broker think of them as suckers who buy shitty deal so that they can get a commission. Maybe that movie open the eyes of those investors and eventually cause a plunge in global volatility

1.2042 1.4039

anyone looked at the drop from 3993 and how it compares to Thursdays? boxes are = distances.

Shorted eur/jpy at 139.911 tp 137.4

1.20413 as 2012 low,
1.4034 as 1.27956 to 1.3415 move target
and 1.4043 as (LM of 75 %) 1.49393 to 1.20413 move

Gidday Traders

Well nearly 1.37

Got a pending short there

They will coax the buyers in

an pull the chain hard.

Very possible. Even Draghi's bazoka is tiny.

Here are few levels.

Last night, I had 3562 as a support. It did break this support in early NY session but did not touch the next level that is 1.3499.

Missed the opportunity to enter a long near 1.3500 for a 40 pip TP as publicised in last week's posts. The next similar opportunity will be if it gets near 1.3400.

Short for now, it may make another attempt at 1.3500.

3832
3761
3742
3734
3698
3652
3650
3637
3630
3562
3539
3499
3472
3469
3441

The odds are more favorable to the downside, depending on how USA handles NFP.

Also, Close attention to Swiss is important.

They handle things very well and sometimes they very well footle too.

What are peoples thoughts on what fundamentals are at play here?

The way EUR value is rising implies that its a great place to park your cash?

This event appears to be 100% pure speculation.

Am I wrong?

Yes.

Sorry to poke, but why?

Is the EU expanding above expectations?

Sorry, but I'm try trying to workout where the demand is coming from.

Quotes from Capital Economics:

- After industry stuttered in March, Germany's main growth engine should have revved back up at the beginning of Q2 (07.00 GMT). After four monthly rises in a row, production dropped in March. But April's 3.1% monthly increase in industrial orders was fairly encouraging. (Data released on Thursday.)
- On balance, industrial output might have expanded by around 0.5% on the month in April, although the annual growth rate might have fallen slightly to 2.9%.

Hi Chicky,
Would you please check following numbers with your numbers and please give feedback about them when ever you have free time. I tried to code what you said.

Each block represent latest swings on weekly. Each block has 4 color.
For example for First block
Red for range high
Lime for range low
Aqua for range mid,
Yellows are 25/75/125/150/175/200/-25/-50/-75/-100. Edit: down projection ratios corrected
Other blocks with same logic.


First one is last values, second one progressive one which I can see the old levels as well.
Thanks.

A currency goes where most interests want to take it. No doubt Euro is the reserve currency of future and maybe one of the strongest currencies this world has ever seen since currency was invented. The question is where EU wants it now and in the near future? USA controls USD and not any other currency (I'm not sure even if USA controls Dollars with Federal Reserve there). If Europe wants to see weaker Euro it will try to bring it down, If Feds want to see Dollar lower, they will try to bring it down. This is not a good time to park cash.

Quotes from RBS:
- We are more confident that the USD can outperform on a stronger than anticipated payroll report even after it failed to do so in April.
- The potential for large-scale changes to GPIF investment being rolled out in Japan makes long USD/JPY compelling on an outperformance.

Quotes from RBS:
- The sharp reversal in EUR crosses after the ECB decision today suggests that the pain trade in EUR/USD is toward a higher EUR - weakness in US payrolls may add to the pain - a higher EUR on the crosses could be an attractive short-term position for those looking for an NFP underperformance, and with it USD weakness.

Quotes from RBS:
300k and Above - EM FX becomes more vulnerable as US interest rates rise and the Fed's dovish stance loses some credibility. Long USD/ZAR
240k to 300K - Another strong payroll number adds to the concern that the Fed will ultimately have to take a hawkish turn, though with inflation still low this is a slow burning story rather than an immediate development. Long USD/JPY
200K to 240K - The consensus lies in this zone. The risks of a disappointment in the unemployment rate, related to the labour force, and the reading on average hourly earnings may take the reins in terms of price action. CAD/JPY longs or AUD/CAD shorts may be attractive to take advantage of still-solid US data.
150K to 200K - While investors are likely tired of discussing the winter weather impact on the US data, note that just as the December and January reports understated the pace of job gains due to the weather, April's outperformance in particular likely overstated the pace of job gains. That may mean a result in this range also does not significantly change the underlying trend in payrolls, though lower US interest rates and a weaker USD may still take hold initially. Long GBP/USD
150K or Below - The Fed's extremely dovish view retains credibility as the jobs market slows from after three consecutive months of 200K+ gains. With the pain in EUR crosses likely toward a higher EUR, particularly if USD weakness helps push the EUR/USD cross higher, EUR/MXN longs or EUR/CAD longs may be an attractive tactical play on US growth underperformance. A combination of a loosening ECB and slower than expect normalization of policy, EM FX that is not as closely linked to US growth should trade strongly, favouring the likes of ZAR and BRL over USD, CAD and MXN.