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  • #902,441
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:27pm Jun 4, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting emmalee25
{quote} Yes. My view is up, I've already said it. I am long EUR and will buy again as soon as it pushes lower on ECB rate cut news tomorrow.
IF ECB action comes through you will not see 1.4 or 1.38 for that matter. If it pushes through 3500 itll go towards 3300 in coming days/weeks.
  • #902,442
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:36pm Jun 4, 2014 12:36pm
Quoting Petiedawgs
{quote} IF ECB action comes through you will not see 1.4 or 1.38 for that matter. If it pushes through 3500 itll go towards 3300 in coming days/weeks.
ECB action is priced in...100 more pips towards 1.35 and then finally to 1.40, 1.45 or even 1.50.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #902,443
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:37pm Jun 4, 2014 12:37pm
In my opinion the last 1 week and a half was one of the best in a few months, with a nice tight and correct range of 55-65 pips in which the price respected the supports and resistances.
As for my 2 cents opinion I think that tomorrow ECB will do what the markets expect and cut the rates, and as Ichimoku shows on weekly we can see 1.3460ish where is the hammerhead and from where will be a turning point, if that point is breached the downside will be even more if not we will be again in a range until other news will come out.

Regards,
VladG


P.S: I closed all my shorts with nice scalps in the last 12 trading days and I'm gonna wait until tomorrow to see the outcome.
  • #902,444
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:38pm Jun 4, 2014 12:38pm
Quoting aahmad29
My pending long position is active and just missed T.P SL=BE {image}
Closed at BE. EMA200 is still above the PA. Lets see what happen.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #902,445
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:44pm Jun 4, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} Return to long @3604
Hi, where is your Tp with this long?
  • #902,446
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:45pm Jun 4, 2014 12:45pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} ECB action is priced in...100 more pips towards 1.35 and then finally to 1.40, 1.45 or even 1.50.
I guess you've been reading CNBC articles. Don't listen to that crap. Keep all options in mind. I've learned most "experts" are just as inept as most of us here. The reason they in the end make money is they have a lot more resources than us.

There are just the same amount of arguments for the downside as there are for upside. And also just some food for thought to you for the past year and a half the EUR has gone up, the bearish wedge has cracked and is in effect. Any upside is very limited IMO.

Of course this post you can take in anyway, but I suggest trading purely on the price action, and not on news. People were screaming 1.4 just a month ago, but six months ago people were screaming 1.3, what changed? Also if you look at who is mostly underwater now its the LONG positions. IMO there are plenty of shorters around, and more people that are willing to sell.
  • #902,447
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:47pm Jun 4, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting MisterSpread
In my opinion the last 1 week and a half was one of the best in a few months, with a nice tight and correct range of 55-65 pips in which the price respected the supports and resistances. As for my 2 cents opinion I think that tomorrow ECB will do what the markets expect and cut the rates, and as Ichimoku shows on weekly we can see 1.3460ish where is the hammerhead and from where will be a turning point, if that point is breached the downside will be even more if not we will be again in a range until other news will come out. Regards, VladG P.S:...
I hear you on that if you are a better range trader then this market has been gold for those types of traders. Personally I profit more during trends, and get chopped to death during ranges. Im learning though to fine tune my trading to at least cope better with range trading.
  • #902,448
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:47pm Jun 4, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting Nan-ook
{quote} Hi, where is your Tp with this long?
I'm on the same L@3602 and my tp is 3622
  • #902,449
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:50pm Jun 4, 2014 12:50pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} ECB action is priced in...100 more pips towards 1.35 and then finally to 1.40, 1.45 or even 1.50.
Also 1.5!!! where are you getting these numbers from???? Just picking at random. It may never reach 1.4 and you have 1.5 in your head. Get that number out of your head concentrate on what numbers and levels are within the current ranges.

Granted if you are an "investor" and not a day trader then okay I can understand your view for a very long term trade, but still 1.5 that number hasn't been almost seen since 2011.
  • #902,450
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:58pm Jun 4, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting Nan-ook
{quote} Hi, where is your Tp with this long?
At present @3624
  • #902,451
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:58pm Jun 4, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} And ? I know how to look on the calendar, but I think you didn't understood my question or didn't read my post: I said that I want to see where it show the date for the ECB Interest rate decision ? Regards, VladG
sorry man, i should not have responded earlier. mine is under my ff calender on whatever tomorrow's date is. thursday, the minimum bid rate.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #902,452
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:59pm Jun 4, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting Petiedawgs
{quote} I hear you on that if you are a better range trader then this market has been gold for those types of traders. Personally I profit more during trends, and get chopped to death during ranges. Im learning though to fine tune my trading to at least cope better with range trading.
Ohhhh believe me, I had my fair part of chopping from my account when I started trading 6 years ago, but now personally I prefer to combine 3 indicators ( RSI, Ichimoku and Fibo Piv) and trying to predict with them the price movements + opening bigger volumes after red news data and scalp it. I've learned a lot from my mistakes but even more from others mistakes and one of the most important lessons was that every time when I was looking at a graphic, I was trying to figure out an opening that I liked instead of one that was suitable for my account.
I don't know if I explained good or if it made any sense but I think all of us have been there, in that step where we try to deny the real upcoming move/trend and we open something just because it looks good and greed is also good.


Cheers and green pips to you all,
VladG
  • #902,453
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:01pm Jun 4, 2014 1:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} sorry man, i should not have responded earlier. mine is under my ff calender on whatever tomorrow's date is. thursday, the minimum bid rate.
No harm done, actually after I clicked the full calendar it appeared, but when I was trying to look from day to day I didn't saw it, so your advice in the end helped .
  • #902,454
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:10pm Jun 4, 2014 1:10pm
Quoting emmalee25
LOL! LOOOL AHAHA there is no way this can go any lower tomorrow. {image}
It's not only here, but practically every where ... in the morning i saw the same picture, from Thinkforex capturing record Euro shorts almost at $1.36!

Mersch's media campaign has convinced everyone mid May, that the rate cut is in the bag. I guess, since it's few hours now is to wait and see: Who was right, and who was wrong!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #902,455
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:27pm Jun 4, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} It's not only here, but practically every where ... in the morning i saw the same picture, from Thinkforex capturing record Euro shorts almost at $1.36! Mersch's media campaign has convinced everyone mid May, that the rate cut is in the bag. I guess, since it's few hours now is to wait and see: Who was right, and who was wrong!

You know for sure not to lean your ear to this "experts" from CNBC, JP and other Pee agencies, the best thing for us small traders to do is to close all the big positions before the news come out and after try to add some bigger ones after the data comes out, cause we all know that when lions eat little pigs like us usually get slaughtered.
It can go both ways tomorrow up or down, I've been burned too many times to believe in the political class and their false promises, so with that said the only thing that I'm gonna do is scalp and try to take some crumbs from the table where the big boys eat.

Cheers and green pips to you all,
VladG

P.S: Sometimes I open a tight hedge with bigger volumes because on 7-8 cases out of 10 the price from EURUSD goes both direction after NFP, rate decisions and they both close with profit.
  • #902,456
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:35pm Jun 4, 2014 1:35pm
So tomorrow at 11:45 is Interest Rate Decision. Eur/USD goes up
45 minutes later, ECB press conference. Eur/USD goes down
Buy when price lowest before 11:45, then get rid of trade by 12:20
Then hold until 12:30, and whatever movement you see seconds after the conference.. go for it
Aye? ^_^
  • #902,457
  • Jun 4, 2014 1:49pm Jun 4, 2014 1:49pm
just come back to see that nothing has changed...the best that bulls could do was 13640...13475 is getting closer regardless

If nothing major happens in the next hour, I will start buying this pair at 13520 adding more at 13480 tomorrow
  • #902,458
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:03pm Jun 4, 2014 2:03pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} It's not only here, but practically every where ... in the morning i saw the same picture, from Thinkforex capturing record Euro shorts almost at $1.36! Mersch's media campaign has convinced everyone mid May, that the rate cut is in the bag. I guess, since it's few hours now is to wait and see: Who was right, and who was wrong!
effect of rate cut for aussie. It dropped 400 pips followed by 900 pips rally!. And one year later we are at exactly the same level as before the rate cut. So much for the rate cut. This market is driven by speculation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie-ratecut- id81_239.png Size: 72 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #902,459
  • Edited 2:30pm Jun 4, 2014 2:19pm | Edited 2:30pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} This market is driven by speculation. {image}
Speculations? Hmm ... hardly a group of gamblers could effect the supply & demand of a specific currency or how it's valued against another! If this was the case, economies would collapse in a blink of an eye. However, speculation that could front run a macro change or sometimes cause it is a different story.

Since you have wasted so much time to try to understand the possible effect of a rate cut, on a currency ... why haven't u used the last 4 rate cuts on EURUSD and draw us a nice picture on the chart ?! Use as many as u can to support ur view, i don't mind

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/monet.../index.en.html
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #902,460
  • Jun 4, 2014 2:30pm Jun 4, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Speculations? Hmm ... hardly a group of gamblers could effect the supply & demand of a specific currency or how it's valued against another! If this was the case, economies would collapse in a blink of an eye. Since you have wasted so much time to try to understand the possible effect of a rate cut, on a currency ... why haven't u used the last 4 rate cuts on EURUSD and draw us a nice picture on the chart ?! Use as many as u can to support ur view, i don't mind http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/monet.../index.en.html
I was a euro bull mate, went neutral after COT, don't know maybe its naive but showed 1.20 before draghi before and now boys at merc fliped sides after that, hard to predict where it'll go however I will go after futures and abandon this strategy or come back with "I told you so" bs.
swing it!
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