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  • #902,341
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:32am Jun 4, 2014 3:32am
Short at 1.3620 from yesterday. Reverse at new low <1.3580 against the wrong assumption of down trend resumption. Stop 1.3640
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #902,342
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:32am Jun 4, 2014 3:32am
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  • #902,343
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:33am Jun 4, 2014 3:33am
Quoting MarianneOslo
ECB has a b g pressure and may be forced to do something.
What pressure? I'm not aware of any pressure ..
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #902,344
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:40am Jun 4, 2014 3:40am
Stop lieing to yourself, what ECB credibility are you all talking about?!

Does anyone dares to short the Euro, if the ECB give u back nothing?
Any bond trader would like to commit suicide before shorting the peripheries?
Or perhaps shorting EU equities? Yeah, that one turned out great 2012 / 2013 / 2014 ..

How the hell everyone now is talking about negative interest rates, and got the Refi rate -10 / - 15 from?! ... Yes, go ahead and say it ... Don't be afraid ... THE MEDIA!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #902,345
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:42am Jun 4, 2014 3:42am
only one trade for me today: risked 4.5 pips (0.45%) made 5.6.

reasons: prices reached my bottom channel line (which is a duplicate of my downtrendline) and an uptrendline. Soon after an inside bull trend bar was printed, showing to me that bulls were not sleeping....... I did not enter just above that bar because I was concerned of the larger (strength) bear bar before the inside bar, in those cases I would wait for a second entry which is also called an H2. The first entry is seen soon after the inside bar where prices travel above the high of the previous bar, three bars after the inside bar the second entry occurs and I am in, my sl goes 1 pips below the signal bar.

The trade was a bit risk because some kind of range formed in last few bars and it is not such a good idea buying at the top of the range...or selling at the bottom of the range.....anyway it did work.... done for the day.....I think it is a bit difficult to trade till next week..ta
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  • #902,346
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:49am Jun 4, 2014 3:49am
Hi Vacus!

He has been talking now for several months abouth rate cut due to the too high euro. Europe still have big problems with too low inflation and too high employment rate.. We saw it also yday from Germany the low inflation.
This is a big probmen for the euro sone indepedent of the traders. The traders should look for the real value in the currency and it is still too strong.

After a decline of 4 percent it may be a recyl up. I have been trading the euro up the last days. Today I am trading the euro down and only looking for the small pips because I am not too sure. Too me it looks more down today than up.

My point is we have an opinion of what the big traders do like when the euro was at 1,4. Everyone expected it to go further up even though it went almost straight up from 1,36 to 1,4. It is in my opinion ok to be careful tmrw as as the big money doest do what we think they would do anyhow ECBs decision.

My way of trading the last days is to wait for a bigger move and for the move back again. EG when the euro reached 136,2 1 sell the euro and buy at 1,36 it works
  • #902,347
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:52am Jun 4, 2014 3:52am
Quoting Vachus
Stop lieing to yourself, what ECB credibility are you all talking about?! Does anyone dares to short the Euro, if the ECB give u back nothing? Any bond trader would like to commit suicide before shorting the peripheries? Or perhaps shorting EU equities? Yeah, that one turned out great 2012 / 2013 / 2014 .. How the hell everyone now is talking about negative interest rates, and got the Refi rate -10 / - 15 from?! ... Yes, go ahead and say it ... Don't be afraid ... THE MEDIA!
Whatever happen already happen, if ECB didn't want to act this meeting then ofcourse there has been a spectacular mismanagement of market expectations, which the end result will be the same, euro blowing into the highs to test 1.40, but over long-term its really bad for Europe and EUR/USD. In case you haven't noticed things are not looking okay for global growth. Forget about equities those are not pricing anything for a long time.
  • #902,348
  • Jun 4, 2014 3:56am Jun 4, 2014 3:56am
I am also long EUR, because I think ECB wont announce negative rates. But we will see..
  • #902,349
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:02am Jun 4, 2014 4:02am
One day until the ECB. See the importance of EURUSD 1.3650. For today, 1.36 traded for 6th day in a row.

See Daily Forex Trading Outlook

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  • #902,350
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:08am Jun 4, 2014 4:08am
Quoting MarianneOslo
Hi Vacus! He has been talking now for several months abouth rate cut due to the too high euro. Europe still have big problems with too low inflation and too high employment rate..
I wish you the best of luck, however Europe has a problem with a deflationary economy just like everyone else around the world ... ( No innovation, no sector growth or small business to ease a crisis)

If you compare the amount of money spend, by the Feds, BOC and BOJ to kick start inflation - what is happening in Europe is a miracle ... the ECB hasn't spent a penny to bring back GDP growth, and keep inflation from slipping. So, in comparison in Japan's doubling it's money supply or Feds doubling it's balance sheet or Bank of England asset purchase program. All what the ECB done was completely the opposite, so it's feasible they are legging behind.

Now, the ECB might be wrong or right - but they have to question the unintended consequence of so called quantitative easing .. ( If someone asked my opinion, i would choose to remain in deflationary cycle instead of this cheap money being printed)
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #902,351
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:14am Jun 4, 2014 4:14am
The outlook for tomorrow looks very simple to me . First the ECB with drop rates this is a fait accompli. Second The Euro will sink like a stone, the big money is just waiting until tomorrows announcement.
"Don't get caught trading wheat in the corn pit"
  • #902,352
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:15am Jun 4, 2014 4:15am
Quoting emmalee25
{quote} . In case you haven't noticed things are not looking okay for global growth.
In case you haven't noticed, the Americans were the ones responsible for this crisis - due to their own stupidity in regulating banks and risks ... if they are concern over the global growth, they should start printing more money and more money! It's enough everyone is cleaning up the mess, they have created.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #902,353
  • Edited 4:33am Jun 4, 2014 4:20am | Edited 4:33am
Vachus!

At 1,36 it is a diffecult level for the euro as already it has fallen 4% but for Europe to compete with all new BRIC countries they will be dead.


When the level euro/USD was at 1,4 i was sure it was going down. At 1,36 I am not sure of the direction and only trading small pips

From my bank today goggle translated

Preliminary inflation figures from the eurozone showed that inflation fell from 0.7 to 0.5 percent. According
Reuters consensus expected prices to remain unchanged. With low inflation, there is little doubt that Mario Draghi
and the ECB will come with new monetary stimulus at the meeting tomorrow. According to Reuters, it is expected
cuts in both repo and deposit rates. Despite the low price figures, the euro appreciated something yesterday. A
reason is probably that many had feared an even lower outcomes for inflation after Monday
German figures. In addition seem clean cut from the ECB already being taken into account in the current market pricing.
Thus, market participants less potential for further euro decline from current levels.
Over the past month EURUSD fell from just under 1.40 to about 1.36 and
market participants' positioning has gone from long to short euro. Yesterday chose several to reduce its short
positions, which led to the euro strengthened. Yesterday's movements are also indicative of
that cutting interest rates will not necessarily lead to a further weakening of the euro significant. For
To get there, you have probably ESB come up with stronger measures, such as quantitative easing. There we consider
as relatively unlikely. In the short term we therefore upside potential for EURUSD.
The euro strengthened.

At the moment the euro looks stronger and I am waiting for next stop level to sell and oppsite of this banks opinion.


It is though interesting that many changed their position from short to long yday.
  • #902,354
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:29am Jun 4, 2014 4:29am
Quoting MarianneOslo
Vachus! At 1,36 it is a diffecult level for the euro as already it has fallen 4% but for Europe to compete with all new BRIC countries they will be dead. Ehen the leven euro/USD was at 1,4 i was sure it was going down.
Let's not kid of our self, shall we ... exports will not rise just because of 10% depreciation in currency? Exports and productivity will rise when Europe - as a whole- can and able to deliver the best products available! Not only Germany and the rest of Scandinavian countries, but all and whole! Greece's, Italy, Spain and France have all much bigger problems than the ECB can manage. Europe needs fiscal consolidation, not cheap money
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #902,355
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:42am Jun 4, 2014 4:42am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Let's not kid of our self, shall we ... exports will not rise just because of 10% depreciation in currency? Exports and productivity will rise when Europe - as a whole- can and able to deliver the best products available! Not only Germany and the rest of Scandinavian countries, but all and whole! Greece's, Italy, Spain and France have all much bigger problems than the ECB can manage. Europe needs fiscal consolidation, not cheap money
That is the main problem why the EUR always will be less than USD. The countries within the Eurozone are to different and all need different fiscal policies. I think that ECB is already to late with acting and deflation is inevitable.
  • #902,356
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:42am Jun 4, 2014 4:42am
The euro should decline 30% towards it main trade countres to be competable. I am still expecting some bad things to happens in this currency war. The crisis is not over.
  • #902,357
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:48am Jun 4, 2014 4:48am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} In case you haven't noticed, the Americans were the ones responsible for this crisis - due to their own stupidity in regulating banks and risks ... if they are concern over the global growth, they should start printing more money and more money! It's enough everyone is cleaning up the mess, they have created.
1) Thats the problem! They are not convieced that we will have a slow growth and thats the problem as they continue to remove QE, thats why risk-off will happen.
2) Euro-area has growth because US has growth! Its not a miracle, peripheral yields are not back to normal because Draghi said 'whatever it takes', its because QE money THE ACTUAL MONEY pushed them lower.
  • #902,358
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:50am Jun 4, 2014 4:50am
Draghi could have said "Whatever it takes" 100 times and nothing would have happen. Some other central bank had to put the actual money upfront, it was the FED.
  • #902,359
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:54am Jun 4, 2014 4:54am
Quoting emmalee25
Draghi could have said "Whatever it takes" 100 times and nothing would have happen. Some other central bank had to put the actual money upfront, it was the FED.
What are you talking about?! The FEDs were buying U.S. Treasuries notes and morgage backed securities ... what Europe has to do with the Fed?! The what ever it takes was to announce OMT introduction and the firewall for financing, in case a sovereign goes bankrupt! ( Have u seen any European country going bust to activate the program?! )
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #902,360
  • Jun 4, 2014 4:59am Jun 4, 2014 4:59am
Quoting chazzle
EG H4 rebuilding EURGBP long - looking to 8130 for support ...
most of the position on at 8130 - some ammo left to add higher or lower (not too low) - next step: 8160 - out of here , gl all
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