EURUSD

No problem, as long as it's above the 50 level, the PMI remains expansionary. The main event is the EU GDP for 1st Quarter (S.A) ... isn't ironic for Europe to score growth, while USA GDP dropped by -1% !

Thank you for that update.

is the market open yet?

remaining 40% off here - no new low via news on cable - looking to long cable if it looks good > 16720

some buyers there - I'm joining them - looking for 740ish

closing -5 pips

opens below 36

We will have to wait and see. So far the market has been pretty dull since 7:00gmt. GBP moved down before its pmi news, and since the news we had a strong bull candle on the 5m. As many have suggested, later today should create some decent price action.

euro just retraced about 76% from previous move up from yesterday: today is the day to reach 3660/

even 3720-40

good trading !

done

I have build a scenario where a ECB disappointment will actually lead to lower euro and lower Developed markets yields, with a blow-out on carry trades and higher volatility. (yeah im a panic maker)

It starts with how much ECB will disappoint on next meeting. If it doesnt do anything substancial besides cutting rates I think peripheral yields will sell-off violently marking the start of the problem, and carry trades to get disrupted.

While US economy is still strong, markets are not pricing any slow-down even if little on next semester, which is likely to happen, creating a global slowdown spill-over speculation.

And we are set on the right conditions for a renewed mistrust into Euroarea, specially peripheral europe and carry trades. As PIIGS yields shoot even higher and ECB creditibliy is on the line, it will be just a matter of time before markets test OMT (that doesn't exist) which will increase pressure on the eur/usd and all risk-assets including S&P and asian stock markets and higher volatilty.

I think ECB went out of line with trying to adjust market expectations. So fuck them.

Will ECB disappoint?
Yes I think it will, but that is also priced in into the market at some extent imo, I think anti-ECB trade is not as less crowed as it appears.
I think ECB will disappoint because of the lack-of-noise coming out of ECB; Sources talk about rate cuts ONLY and I would expect by now some reports of where ECB is looking at, some details they are working through to deliver QE. There aren't any, it seems nothing is being prepared or taken seriously.

I think ECB will do:
Rate cuts, end SMP, Another LTRO, No neg. dep, Announce QE, only to be operational in near future on the meeting but don't actually do it. This will euro to rally big time. The only thing that could send it lower by now is a neg. dep rate.


“Keep always your promises and do not promise anything you cannot accomplish. This is how you built your credibility in the long run.”

DAMN! should have held.

when it pass 3650 , it will go 3720 100%
good luck

yep - basically , I switched from EU long to Cable long - as Cable looked better for it in the short term

who needs luck when you have 100% certainty?

Why is everbody so sure that it goes up,when al newsankers say that the euro will colapse when there is a rate cut from europe?

Sell the rumour buy the fact LOL.

Any way most retail traders are long, so it should continue going down.....

Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)http://static.mfbcdn.net/images/high.impact.png0.2%0.2%0.2
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)http://static.mfbcdn.net/images/high.impact.png0.5%0.9%0.9

oops - HFT fat finger

I didn't have time to post this before the news, but I sold the pump and dump @ 3621, I also have a further sell order below 36

edit: that below 36 order now @ 3598