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  • #902,261
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:04pm Jun 3, 2014 2:04pm
PA is struggling under H1-EMA200 and at H4-RSI19 (50 Level).
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Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #902,262
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:11pm Jun 3, 2014 2:11pm
I must say looking across markets today it seems like ECB skepticism is the trade. The EUR is higher, which is especially strange given the recent CPI data. TRY and ZAR are suffering as the main dependents on dovish developed market central banks. Gold has fallen as well the last few sessions. US Rates are underperforming, yields are rising while German and Uk yields remain unchanged for the most part. Friday and Monday were mostly dominated by rising 2yr rates, the US 2yr is back up to 0.40% and rising. Today 10yr yields are the leader as the curve is flatenning after two days of steepning. Momentum internet stocks have under performed in the last 3 days.


skepticism on the ECB + optimism on NFP = sentiment shift towards tighter financial conditions


The ECB has a tall order but I dont think they will disappoint.... simply because current expectations are for a disappointment. All the articles and market pundits expect a buy the rumor sell the fact. They're trying to be clever when its not rally warranted.... may be better to sell the rumor then sell the fact. I am however optimistic on NFP. Combining these views I increased EURUSD shorts once again at 1.3630 and took profits on most long USDZAR positions and some of the USDTRY. Depending on how things look at the end of the week I will adjust
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #902,263
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:21pm Jun 3, 2014 2:21pm
Do you think we can manage tomorrow $1.370? With a Maximum low $1.36150 ( -/+ few pips) ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #902,264
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:37pm Jun 3, 2014 2:37pm
I find that quite unusual for people to buy when they know that the ECB is going to talk the Euro down. Anyways, they have 2 days to close their long on the Euro. We are very likely to touch 1.35 by the end of this week.
Experience comes with time
  • #902,265
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:45pm Jun 3, 2014 2:45pm
It will be a great help if any experienced member help me to understood the effect on eurusd of ECB QE, if you have a link of a good article, that will be a great help as well.

Thanks
  • #902,266
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:50pm Jun 3, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting Vachus
Do you think we can manage tomorrow $1.370? With a Maximum low $1.36150 ( -/+ few pips) ...
I guess, 1.3684 will determine that. It is possible if London make it b4 NY opens. I am hoping GBP Services PMI will help to achieve that.

And most importantly, Asia must not finger with 1.3615. If this happens, I will wait for 1.3581 to long.
  • #902,267
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:53pm Jun 3, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} I guess, 1.3684 will determine that. It is possible if London make it b4 NY opens. I am hoping GBP Services PMI will help to achieve that. And most importantly, Asia must not finger with 1.3615. If this happens, I will wait for 1.3581 to long.
What i can say is, the Door is wide open towards $1.37x something - it's always a question, if buyers will follow or leave the opportunity .. as for the bold number, i don't really think we are going back there, without an ECB surprise!

* And so it doesn't sound like a prophecy, $1.361x and $1.364 are the ones gonna make this happens.
** As far as i'm concern, the Euro index is already reversing the losses - but EURUSD is legging behind it.
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"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #902,268
  • Jun 3, 2014 2:59pm Jun 3, 2014 2:59pm
Quoting onlyfortrade
It will be a great help if any experienced member help me to understood the effect on eurusd of ECB QE, if you have a link of a good article, that will be a great help as well. Thanks
In your case, I would just stick around and observe. When you dont know something it better to observe and take note instead of taking unnecessary risk.
Experience comes with time
  • #902,269
  • Jun 3, 2014 3:13pm Jun 3, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} What i can say is, the Door is wide open towards $1.37x something - it's always a question, if buyers will follow or leave the opportunity .. as for the bold number, i don't really think we are going back there, without an ECB surprise! * And so it doesn't sound like a prophecy, $1.361x and $1.364 are the ones gonna make this happens. ** As far as i'm concern, the Euro index is already reversing the losses - but EURUSD is legging behind it. {image}
I too believe that, 1.3737 is my expectation.
  • #902,270
  • Jun 3, 2014 3:19pm Jun 3, 2014 3:19pm
On the daily TF, the price is fluctuating up inside a bullish channel and we see an Invab=cd harmonic pattern simultaneously. We are expecting to see it fueling up if the demand increases and the price got stabilized above 1.3600. By having the lower end of the channel the forecast will be rescinded.


http://forex-fa14.blogspot.com/

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  • #902,271
  • Jun 3, 2014 3:22pm Jun 3, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting Citiboy
I must say looking across markets today it seems like ECB skepticism is the trade. The EUR is higher, which is especially strange given the recent CPI data. TRY and ZAt
Anything is possible until Thursday. However, Asia yesterday didn't short this pair and today EURUSD managed to jump a little bit. I think everybody expects Draghi to flex his muscles as a warning for eurosceptics on Thursday. A practical demo of whatever it takes is very much needed.
  • #902,272
  • Jun 3, 2014 3:47pm Jun 3, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting Vachus
Do you think we can manage tomorrow $1.370? With a Maximum low $1.36150 ( -/+ few pips) ...
Donīt know if we reach 1.37, but from my point of view we have to go higher than today.

That does not to happen tomorrow, it can also happen on Thursday.

But I will not trade it with ECB ahead. So good luck to everyone who tries it.
  • #902,273
  • Jun 3, 2014 3:54pm Jun 3, 2014 3:54pm
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} So good luck to everyone who tries it.
I understand your trading style and approach, but this meeting is one of the high anticipated policy meeting since December 2013 (Fed's tapering) I do not remember any ECB's meeting highly anticipated like this one, maybe ECB August 2012 .. ( Strangely enough, Knight capital's Algo went nuts around this meeting)

So, even if you try to escape it - volatility may continue to the next week or the rest of the month..
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #902,274
  • Edited 4:49pm Jun 3, 2014 4:01pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting MaxDoom
shorted @ 3644
that was a good call......... still I think 50 is near...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #902,275
  • Jun 3, 2014 4:17pm Jun 3, 2014 4:17pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} I understand your trading style and approach, but this meeting is one of the high anticipated policy meeting since December 2013 (Fed's tapering) I do not remember any ECB's meeting highly anticipated like this one, maybe ECB August 2012 .. ( Strangely enough, Knight capital's Algo went nuts around this meeting) So, even if you try to escape it - volatility may continue to the next week or the rest of the month..
It is simply too big (and probabaly too fast) for me.

I do not mind high volatility, but I have seen enough of these superfast moves that I know that I have no chance to trade them as long as I do not have traded into the right direction by fortune earlier.
  • #902,276
  • Jun 3, 2014 11:38pm Jun 3, 2014 11:38pm
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} this short is starting to look comfortable but better once below 2624 if it can break the Daily-PP again then I will look for a low test {image}
Hi,

Do you use H4, D1, W1 pivot indicator on your chart?

Regards
PROredart
PROredart is not PRO trader
  • #902,277
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:06am Jun 4, 2014 12:06am
EURUSD again signaling a test of 1.3590. Breaking which the descending trend channel on H4 chart continue to signal downtrend.
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  • #902,278
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:32am Jun 4, 2014 12:32am
Good morning everybody!

Attached is my H4 heat map detecting a very high probability for the Bulls, at least to reach the 23% Fib.

I'm long with a small TP target for now.

Happy trading!
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Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #902,279
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:54am Jun 4, 2014 12:54am
EU 1H

Not sure I'm with the bulls here. Mario tends to chase the bulls off so its today for the bulls or not for a while...

Range 1.365 Resisting 1.359 Supporting

1.362 seems to show some direction if price is above / below
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  • #902,280
  • Jun 4, 2014 12:55am Jun 4, 2014 12:55am
Quoting milam
{quote} that was a good call......... still I think 50 is near...
thanks Milam
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