It's really tempting to short this 9321 level, but something tells me after a couple times it's going to explode toward 9380 rather wait for that.
- #78,242
- May 29, 2014 11:26pm May 29, 2014 11:26pm
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,956 Posts
{quote} Back in 2012 many FF members from Euro Zone got crushed shorting E/U some were calling parity and .80 per dollar. Can't really blame them because they live in that situation and what they read and hear day in and out. If you have been watching XXX/JPY, where do you think all the money went to? U/J from 105.xx down to current level not to mention the money from XXX/JPY crosses?
Edit:The mining industry is "fickle" at best.... is what i was looking for. I had a bad mind block as I was about to write it and forgot the word I was about to use... sorry done now
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
- #78,245
- May 29, 2014 11:37pm May 29, 2014 11:37pm
{quote} I see where you are with both factors. The yen is making a come back to be sure, at least in the short term and lt indicators are starting to point long Yen too. I also live live in mining capital of Australia. The mining boom that has rolled Aus through the gfc is slowly winding down that can be seen with many factors not just news reports, a simple indicator is housing. It used to be impossible to find a house here but all needs to be done is turn to real estate section in the paper. The mining industry is volatile though; here one day...
From my understanding the mining industry in Aus (mind you I am a resident of Brisbane) kicks hard when our $ reaches .80. Whilst pointers are towards a rate increase of .25 late in the year or early next year I foresee our strong dollar will keep this at bay. I am short based on our economic fundamentals but as you can see doing my proverbial arse
. I would think the AUD should see 0.85 in the medium to long term. I have re-entered my short with a short shot (15 point at 0.93450) Just to see if it is resisting off the previous support.
- #78,246
- May 29, 2014 11:38pm May 29, 2014 11:38pm
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,480 Posts
{image}
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
- #78,249
- May 30, 2014 12:06am May 30, 2014 12:06am
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts
Ruffleo - #78,250
- May 30, 2014 12:08am May 30, 2014 12:08am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,956 Posts
{quote} Yeah sooner or later the dollar is going to rally hard against everything, but for me I think the AUD has already been sold off super hard against USD , so maybe will just make a retouch of the bottom. EU, NZD/ GU all feel like they have a long, long way to fall
{quote} E/A is moving to your direction
){quote} From my understanding the mining industry in Aus (mind you I am a resident of Brisbane) kicks hard when our $ reaches .80. Whilst pointers are towards a rate increase of .25 late in the year or early next year I foresee our strong dollar will keep this at bay. I am short based on our economic fundamentals but as you can see doing my proverbial arse
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
- #78,251
- May 30, 2014 12:14am May 30, 2014 12:14am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2012 | 3,968 Posts
{quote} I have heard economists here predicting the AU to be at .80 by the end of the year though I can't see it. I would be surprised if it doesn't reach parity again but if we make a new low from the start of this year without doing so would indicate a heavy drop imo. {quote} There's not much support stopping it from here, should be a 100 pip steady drop with any luck. (I like to throw that word around just to upset ppl
I don't think parity is coming any time soon, if anything maybe like 95-97 max, I mean it is possible while stocks are rising and risk off is going on, but overall it seems dollar strength is taking over as the only other place to put money other than the stock markets. I really don't know though. It's a tough environment right now to figure out long term, at least for the Aussie.
The euro on the other hand seems like it's in big trouble. Euro problems have not gone anyway and the rally from 1.3 to 1.4 is IMO unsustainable and will fail in months to come.
- #78,254
- May 30, 2014 12:42am May 30, 2014 12:42am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,956 Posts
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
- #78,256
- May 30, 2014 1:26am May 30, 2014 1:26am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: private | 2,606 Posts
just do it
- #78,257
- May 30, 2014 1:39am May 30, 2014 1:39am
This is the trendline that I will adhere for now. You can see the Daily trendline 0.9350 and 4H trendline 0.9370 No doubt now the direction is up. My target is 0.935-0.937 Looking at the massive volume daily candle pushing through the supply concerns me. I'm not sure but this seems to me a classic distribution where everyone is expecting a crash only to get stop out by the buying of professional for last distribution. My trendline is pretty clear. For my view to be wrong the price shooting up near or more 0.9470 . I will be looking closely to Daily...
- #78,258
- May 30, 2014 1:50am May 30, 2014 1:50am
- Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Trader | 4,895 Posts
End of the month and price is spot on monthly pivot @ .9317, I would be surprised if the big players will be holding long into the weekend. Im short from .9323 looking for a 10 pip rejection so I can move SL to BE and have a free run at .9280 into tomorrow. Good luck traders, have a nice weekend!
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
- #78,259
- May 30, 2014 2:06am May 30, 2014 2:06am
{quote} Mission accomplished, free rolling into the weekend. Monthly pivot rejected again, down goes Frazier, down goes Frazier!!
Ruffruderello i miss you !!!!!!!!! - #78,260
- May 30, 2014 2:51am May 30, 2014 2:51am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,956 Posts
{quote} There's not much support stopping it from here, should be a 100 pip steady drop with any luck. (I like to throw that word around just to upset ppl
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move