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AUD/USD

  • #78,221
  • May 29, 2014 8:58pm May 29, 2014 8:58pm
Quoting Matts Micro
I am waiting for this EA setup to be confirmed. Could possibly be a 1000 pip move imo. {image}
I got in this trade at 1.4640. I am not the best long term trader and always end up kicking myself for not keeping trades open to original destination. I am thinking of a do or die attitude on this trade, ofc covering the position at reasonable stages though. I feel I must be in the wrong direction going by the IR but with the bullish divergence of the AU and indicators still pointing south on the EU the plan still stands. Next weeks data will be interesting, I am just hoping the trade can advance far enough to avoid spiking my SL during news events if news is in the direction of trade.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #78,222
  • May 29, 2014 9:00pm May 29, 2014 9:00pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I got in this trade at 1.4640. I am not the best long term trader and always end up kicking myself for not keeping trades open to original destination. I am thinking of a do or die attitude on this trade, ofc covering the position at reasonable stages though. I feel I must be in the wrong direction going by the IR but with the bullish divergence of the AU and indicators still pointing south on the EU the plan still stands. Next weeks data will be interesting, I am just hoping the trade can advance far enough to avoid spiking my SL during...
Watch last support (lows) since your entry is so close to it.
  • #78,223
  • May 29, 2014 9:05pm May 29, 2014 9:05pm
Mentally not ready for short.... yet...
  • #78,224
  • May 29, 2014 9:07pm May 29, 2014 9:07pm
End of the month and price is spot on monthly pivot @ .9317, I would be surprised if the big players will be holding long into the weekend.

Im short from .9323 looking for a 10 pip rejection so I can move SL to BE and have a free run at .9280 into tomorrow.

Good luck traders, have a nice weekend!
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #78,225
  • May 29, 2014 9:10pm May 29, 2014 9:10pm
Quoting julia2011
{quote} be ready to short it from 9330 down 300 pips to 9030
Where'r the stops for that target?


Quoting Lamira
Mentally not ready for short.... yet...
Told ya. You are under spell and now is a frog. You need a prince.
  • #78,226
  • May 29, 2014 9:13pm May 29, 2014 9:13pm
This is the trendline that I will adhere for now.

You can see the Daily trendline 0.9350 and 4H trendline 0.9370

No doubt now the direction is up. My target is 0.935-0.937

Looking at the massive volume daily candle pushing through the supply concerns me. I'm not sure but this seems to me a classic distribution where everyone is expecting a crash only to get stop out by the buying of professional for last distribution. My trendline is pretty clear. For my view to be wrong the price shooting up near or more 0.9470 .

I will be looking closely to Daily and 4H candle, try to read what the professional wanted to do. If price reacting to the trendline I drawn , The following 2 coming months will tank hard for AU.

But right now. the only sensible direction is up until or near the 0.935-0.937.

Happy Pipping !
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Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #78,227
  • May 29, 2014 9:18pm May 29, 2014 9:18pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Watch last support (lows) since your entry is so close to it.
Yah thanks, it's the way I trade, not too economical but I tend to use BO area's rather than at supply/demand levels. It heightens risk but I find it has a better rate of success. I have given this trade a bit of room to move but will re-examine tonight/monday just to be sure it's not a fakeout that tends to happen at end of week/month profit taking. The R/R isn't bad so wont mind taking a small loss if it proves incorrect and re-enter if challenged again.

EJ looks like could be moving to next supply level.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #78,228
  • May 29, 2014 9:24pm May 29, 2014 9:24pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Yah thanks, it's the way I trade, not too economical but I tend to use BO area's rather than at supply/demand levels. It heightens risk but I find it has a better rate of success. I have given this trade a bit of room to move but will re-examine tonight/monday just to be sure it's not a fakeout that tends to happen at end of week/month profit taking. The R/R isn't bad so wont mind taking a small loss if it proves incorrect and re-enter if challenged again. EJ looks like could be moving to next supply level.
E/A and A/U are inversely correlated. If you have clear levels for at least A/U and E/U + E/A shouldn't be a problem for confidence to stay in trades.
  • #78,229
  • May 29, 2014 9:48pm May 29, 2014 9:48pm
NZDUSD looking for a little more lovin off support...
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #78,230
  • May 29, 2014 10:03pm May 29, 2014 10:03pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} E/A and A/U are inversely correlated. If you have clear levels for at least A/U and E/U + E/A shouldn't be a problem for confidence to stay in trades.
Self doubt in this industry is a biach (it's an old nemesis of mine) but have found it is only fueled if using incorrect MM- including positive trades for the temptation of taking profit too early. I am watching this years AU lower daily/weekly channel TL, I think from the current range we will either get a double top or new highs. The iron ore down trend is being discussed here however as a possible weakness in the AUD. The EU could be at one of the yearly major turning points imo, will see what happens next week. Time will tell
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #78,231
  • May 29, 2014 10:07pm May 29, 2014 10:07pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Self doubt in this industry is a biach (it's an old nemesis of mine) but have found it is only fueled if using incorrect MM


(tried to paste about 100 of these to express agreement with this TOTALLY...)
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #78,232
  • May 29, 2014 10:08pm May 29, 2014 10:08pm
Quoting Magix
NZDUSD looking for a little more lovin off support... {image}
I am watching the weekly TL (start 31.7.2011) for a possible bounce and further upside from BO.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #78,233
  • May 29, 2014 10:22pm May 29, 2014 10:22pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I am watching the weekly TL (start 31.7.2011) for a possible bounce and further upside from BO.
Ahhhhhhhh yes...The ever popular, tilt your head and change the time frame, trendline...

Well...

Good luck, with that..

Ya see where price is now?

Do you know why this is a safer area to short than is to go long?

Because if price moves above, it will come back down...if price is rejected here...it's curtains for this bitch...

Sure, I know there's a lotta AUD bulls in the house...like I give a shit...fact remains, we are heading in to summer session and this can really do whatever it wants. Below this line, it wants to devour some bulls...

Do whatcha wanna do....but, before you put heavy faith in your trend-lines...you see if you can find 1 single person, who can look at the same trendline point to point and have the same exact extensions on the line.

Throw that shit out dude...it's worthless.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #78,234
  • May 29, 2014 10:27pm May 29, 2014 10:27pm
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #78,235
  • May 29, 2014 10:37pm May 29, 2014 10:37pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} (tried to paste about 100 of these to express agreement with this TOTALLY...)
I read an interesting article the other day that relates. It was about the difference of successful traders and the ones that blow accounts and it has nothing to do with IQ. Basically it was saying that the successful people are the ones that know what to do and have the discipline to be able to execute that knowledge. So many people "know" the truth of trading disciplines that is often read in the very first books they read on the subject but the problem is that traders, even the very brightest of us, fail to actually execute those lessons. Knowing a truth and being able adhere to it can be two completely different matters. It made me think of all those mistakes I made when I was starting out. Even back then I often thought to myself that I shouldn't of being making a certain trade or risking a certain amount etc but went ahead and did it anyway. It's hard lesson to learn and even harder to be good at it. I still have a ways to go.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #78,236
  • May 29, 2014 10:42pm May 29, 2014 10:42pm
according to daily chart we can expect downward movement for audusd. price just trying to test previous high.9398, if this level breaks by the pair it will go up otherwise we will see 100-180 pips fall for this pair in upcoming weeks
  • #78,237
  • May 29, 2014 10:47pm May 29, 2014 10:47pm
Thought I could try a couple GA longs...too...



Support line.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #78,238
  • May 29, 2014 10:51pm May 29, 2014 10:51pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Ahhhhhhhh yes...The ever popular, tilt your head and change the time frame, trendline... Well... Good luck, with that.. Ya see where price is now? Do you know why this is a safer area to short than is to go long? Because if price moves above, it will come back down...if price is rejected here...it's curtains for this bitch... Sure, I know there's a lotta AUD bulls in the house...like I give a shit...fact remains, we are heading in to summer session and this can really do whatever it wants. Below this line, it wants to devour...


It's true TL's can be imprecise, especially on the larger tf's. When I look at these lines however I am not only looking at the TL but other factors such the S/D levels you are referring to. In following these lines however I have noticed that they co-exist with other factors of S/R lines and important levels. The TL I am referring to actually wont cross over the PA for another 60 pips lower (around .8440). If a horizontal line is drawn at this level it can be seen it is possibly a very strong support region and worthy of at least a bounce if not a kick back into the longer term bull trend.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #78,239
  • May 29, 2014 10:52pm May 29, 2014 10:52pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Ahhhhhhhh yes...The ever popular, tilt your head and change the time frame, trendline... Well... Good luck, with that.. Ya see where price is now? Do you know why this is a safer area to short than is to go long? Because if price moves above, it will come back down...if price is rejected here...it's curtains for this bitch... Sure, I know there's a lotta AUD bulls in the house...like I give a shit...fact remains, we are heading in to summer session and this can really do whatever it wants. Below this line, it wants to devour some bulls......
i think this area is more safe to wait than do anything.
  • #78,240
  • May 29, 2014 10:54pm May 29, 2014 10:54pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I read an interesting article the other day that relates. It was about the difference of successful traders and the ones that blow accounts and it has nothing to do with IQ. Basically it was saying that the successful people are the ones that know what to do and have the discipline to be able to execute that knowledge. So many people "know" the truth of trading disciplines that is often read in the very first books they read on the subject but the problem is that traders, even the very brightest of us, fail to actually execute those lessons....
I'm coming back from a long break and longed AU quite a bit too early with terrible entries, and "emotional idea" that the only thing the AUD could do was go up, yadi, yada, yadi, yada....Because of tight money management I've held on through the trough and built up some reasonable swaps in the process and have a whole new view that I thought I understood but totally didn't act on in this set of trades!! TOTALLY agree with you...thumbs up, high fives, hat tips....
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
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