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  • #901,461
  • May 29, 2014 6:00am May 29, 2014 6:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} in the above post if the bulls are here. they would easily push this thing to the extremes of the small bear setup for 3556. and if they are strong enough they will push above 68.. so at/near 68 (-69) is a sweet spot...one could risk a little + spread. and they will not be waiting around all day waiting to tp or s/o
the same is true here at/near 3585 for 3632 or more. the risk at/near 3585 is a small amount of pips. norm is 3597. its 100% certainty either 3668 or 3585 will get hit.. after that the question is will it stop.. it cost a few pips
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #901,462
  • May 29, 2014 6:04am May 29, 2014 6:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the same is true here at/near 3585 for 3632 or more. the risk at/near 3585 is a small amount of pips. norm is 3597. its 100% certainty either 3668 or 3585 will get hit.. after that the question is will it stop.. it cost a few pips
Hello Gatorinla. So you say the "BULLS" will drop EU to the price of 3585 which was the price it was many many moons ago, which we had some accumulation and a move upwards from?
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  • #901,463
  • May 29, 2014 6:14am May 29, 2014 6:14am
EU is clearly following EJ tick for tick. If EJ closes across 138.46 on the 5m chart, then it should break the high which is the main pivot. Which in turn should cause the same for EU.
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  • #901,464
  • May 29, 2014 6:14am May 29, 2014 6:14am
I noticed something when a contradictory data comes out. Like right now:
USDPrelim GDP q/q-1.0%-0.6%0.1%
USDUnemployment Claims300K321K326K

Usually there is a rapid move in one direction
Than a quite quick turn in another, which exceeds the starting point
Final move in the direction of the first "instinctive" move, which is usually quite big (and exceeds the first high after the news release with a lot)

Just curious if we have hit the bottom of the second part of this 3-way move at 1.599

GL
Riding the Dragon....
  • #901,465
  • May 29, 2014 6:22am May 29, 2014 6:22am
You can see the two arrows on the EJ chart. We have had two rejections from that price. A close across that price would be a good price to go long for an extension of this run. The 100.00 fib level is the high of the last spike, and the 0.0 fib is the low after the price closed between the two ma lines which I use.

And now since EJ has begin to pullback a bit, EU has gone silent.
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  • #901,466
  • May 29, 2014 6:28am May 29, 2014 6:28am
Quoting Farstrider
I noticed something when a contradictory data comes out. Like right now: USDPrelim GDP q/q-1.0%-0.6%0.1% USDUnemployment Claims300K321K326K Usually there is a rapid move in one direction Than a quite quick turn in another, which exceeds the starting point Final move in the direction of the first "instinctive" move, which is usually quite big (and exceeds the first high after the news release with a lot) Just curious if we have hit the bottom of the second part of this 3-way move at 1.599 GL


Avoid extrapolating one time (or ten time) situations into a template for future trading. I did this when i first got into trading... "if oil is going up as the stock market opens, then airline stocks should drop by a corresponding amount..."


thing is it never works as easy as it sounds
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  • #901,467
  • May 29, 2014 6:29am May 29, 2014 6:29am
Quoting FibsWork4Me
{quote} Hello Gatorinla. So you say the "BULLS" will drop EU to the price of 3585 which was the price it was many many moons ago, which we had some accumulation and a move upwards from?
i said in the 354x/92 area has lots of different tf reasons for a bounce. i have no way of knowing if we will bounce here. last year the bulls pointed to 4146. the thing is most times it will go to 3102 before. 3102 never happened. so we may see 3102 before any real bulls return. at the same time we have a b/o for the bears after 2008. we made 3 humps after where bears wanted. the last to 3966 was trip 3 to norm..for .8xx... 3966 is below 4146. if the LL since 2008 is correct, it makes 3966+ stretched. that plus going to 3102 before 4146 is what happens most times. makes this move close to the mid point.. 3992-31020=3547. a bunch of other mids and targets 354x/3592. many of the targets never retraced to their norms. it makes a bounce chance greater. in the 3540/92 area. its not a certainty, its just a place to see if other methods line up with these levels.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #901,468
  • May 29, 2014 6:29am May 29, 2014 6:29am
Quoting Greener
{quote} serious offers should be around 13660 and 13700....when one of the two main parties is absent usually it gets back to where it started by the close of the day. If it doesn't I would be preparing myself for a long ride.
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  • #901,469
  • May 29, 2014 6:37am May 29, 2014 6:37am
EUR hasnt managed more than a 30 point rally since 1.3994... I think a short squeeze is due before the ECB meeting. This entire situation feels extremely reminiscent of the trading conditions that occured around the BoJ easing. Domestic rates drop (germany&france),new highs for global stocks, EM and periphery credit spreads tighten, yen(euro) sells off, carry trades rally, VIX plunges etc. etc.

If draghi drops the ball that may be the start for extreme volatility. The line up of risk events over the next 2.5 weeks is massive
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  • #901,470
  • May 29, 2014 6:47am May 29, 2014 6:47am
Quoting Citiboy
The line up of risk events over the next 2.5 weeks is massive

Agreed

Heed the lessons of failure.
  • #901,471
  • May 29, 2014 7:06am May 29, 2014 7:06am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} delayed but inevitable
Quoting Greener
{quote} it's bank holiday in Europe
Quoting FibsWork4Me
{quote} That considered, EUR/USD still did have a nice move between the pivot which it is trading inside. Now the question is will we stay between this range or will it surprise everyone and shake out. .
We barely had a 50 pips move in the past few days. Anyways, I have always hated bank holidays
  • #901,472
  • May 29, 2014 7:09am May 29, 2014 7:09am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Avoid extrapolating one time (or ten time) situations into a template for future trading. I did this when i first got into trading... "if oil is going up as the stock market opens, then airline stocks should drop by a corresponding amount..." thing is it never works as easy as it sounds
yea, I think it might be because most of the time, this data can be calculated before the news comes out. So when the new is released, for the most part, the price already reflects the news. And we see spikes during news I think mainly because of HFT and regular Joe's like us trading..
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #901,473
  • May 29, 2014 7:17am May 29, 2014 7:17am
Quoting saver0
{quote} yea, I think it might be because most of the time, this data can be calculated before the news comes out. So when the new is released, for the most part, the price already reflects the news. And we see spikes during news I think mainly because of HFT and regular Joe's like us trading..
Yeah there are heavy funds involved at higher ends they must have better ways than us
Heed the lessons of failure.
  • #901,474
  • May 29, 2014 7:27am May 29, 2014 7:27am
144 hrs now it is trading in a 100 pip range. if you ask me it is extremely bearish.
  • #901,475
  • May 29, 2014 7:28am May 29, 2014 7:28am
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Good morning guys, Today I see a followup of the last weeks / days downtrend, lots of pressure on the 1.3620ish level, bad EU data ( German failed horrible for this time of year + the M3 inflation report was a bit off ), managed to close yesterdays scalps with a nice clean profit and reloaded today at 1.3620 looking for 1.3580ish today or by Friday the latest. {image}

Hey fellas,

I'm amazed how the price is respecting my downtrend line that I placed 2 days ago, besides the false breakout from this morning. In my opinion this will push EURUSD to 1.358 again and if that breaks even lower, because the data from US today was mixed ( SOO surprising, NOT ) and that adds to the pressure on the pair.
One more thing, I dare to say that in a few months we could see again the 1.28 - 1.30 value and I don't want to mislead anyone but we know that history repeats itself and if you look on weekly every time when EURUSD started to drop from 1.39 it dropped to the above mentioned values ( Examples : 14.11.2010 and 30.10.2011 ), wouldn't be surprised at all if in October - November this year we will see it at 1.28 - 1.30 .


Cheers and green pips to all,
VladG
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  • #901,476
  • May 29, 2014 7:28am May 29, 2014 7:28am
Quoting Citiboy
EUR hasnt managed more than a 30 point rally since 1.3994... I think a short squeeze is due before the ECB meeting. This entire situation feels extremely reminiscent of the trading conditions that occured around the BoJ easing. Domestic rates drop (germany&france),new highs for global stocks, EM and periphery credit spreads tighten, yen(euro) sells off, carry trades rally, VIX plunges etc. etc. If draghi drops the ball that may be the start for extreme volatility. The line up of risk events over the next 2.5 weeks is massive
tats what i thought when it suddenly rallied 30 pips yesterday in 5 mins. but the way people are calling for short squeeze and accumulating longs in the last 10 days only points to one way which is down. I think longs will be badly trapped now
  • #901,477
  • May 29, 2014 7:46am May 29, 2014 7:46am
Quoting Capelli
{quote} {quote} {quote} We barely had a 50 pips move in the past few days. Anyways, I have always hated bank holidays
We'll I mean for a scalper like myself the moves we have seen the last few days have been very good. The price has closed a cross pivots, and retraced to previous pivots (daily pivots), instead of trading at only one pivot once Asia opens.
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  • #901,478
  • May 29, 2014 7:48am May 29, 2014 7:48am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} tats what i thought when it suddenly rallied 30 pips yesterday in 5 mins. but the way people are calling for short squeeze and accumulating longs in the last 10 days only points to one way which is down. I think longs will be badly trapped now
I am aware there could be more downside in the next few days. However, let's not forget what happens to a tired bear competing with a relaxed bull

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  • #901,479
  • May 29, 2014 7:48am May 29, 2014 7:48am
Quoting Lagani
{quote} No? What about yesterday? You told everyone to BUY, but you failed and it went down. Today you are telling everyone to SELL and calling everyone noobs. You think 30 pip move is high? Kid, go study something because you never seen 200 pip move in a matter of seconds. I will make money, dont you worry about me Peace
haha 200 pip move

wake up, it was half year ago such a moves... or even more...

it wont be no more moves like that in near future
  • #901,480
  • May 29, 2014 7:49am May 29, 2014 7:49am
Amazing that EU has now made this run past the MR1 pivot. Let's see if we can atleast touch todays high which was right at the R1 pivot.
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