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  • #901,421
  • May 29, 2014 6:11am May 29, 2014 6:11am
Quoting chazzle
{quote} 75 pips away - and yes, what Gator said - poss. fresh blood needed after 400 pip drop
Yes.....bears would like to see a few HL's on the daily, this is the weekly, 35 is possible in my view....the UPTL.
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Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #901,422
  • May 29, 2014 6:12am May 29, 2014 6:12am
Quoting gabe32
{quote} What site did you use for that picture of S/R
I use my own tool to extract from http://www.actionforex.com/markets/p...2010040955112/

Google "extract data from website". You will find plenty of such tools.
  • #901,423
  • May 29, 2014 6:20am May 29, 2014 6:20am
Quoting WillyWonka
{quote} Well if you don't have confidence in the trade what is the point of keeping it open? We all open positions that spend a little time in the red before doing what we planned them to do.
Yet, how much time should those positions be in red? Also why should "confidence" play a role in how many pips you are willing to risk in any position.
Ever thought about how much money you could earn wagering against yourself?
  • #901,424
  • May 29, 2014 6:26am May 29, 2014 6:26am
Quoting FibsWork4Me
{quote} Yet, how much time should those positions be in red? Also why should "confidence" play a role in how many pips you are willing to risk in any position.

Please give it a rest.....
"Don't get caught trading wheat in the corn pit"
  • #901,425
  • May 29, 2014 6:30am May 29, 2014 6:30am
Quoting FibsWork4Me
{quote} Yet, how much time should those positions be in red? Also why should "confidence" play a role in how many pips you are willing to risk in any position.
You can apply the 3 period rule.
If by the third close of candlestick in the respective time frame (where you entered the trade) you still not in profit and assuming you not using other type of Stop loss, you just close it manually.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #901,426
  • May 29, 2014 6:30am May 29, 2014 6:30am
Quoting milam
{quote} 3612 could be a test of the bulls strength.....if any......me think
here we are
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #901,427
  • May 29, 2014 6:31am May 29, 2014 6:31am
Quoting milam
{quote} I ask you because I also look for contraction before expansion, I use two different of set ups on the Historical Volatility to determine that and it is not showing on GU atm (daily), would be interesting to see how you do it....
Ok, still studying this method, so not claiming to be an expert or anything like that.

See in the chart, you pick a little range between two swings in the middle of the trend (white). If it's not that clear where you should choose the right spot, you look for the 50% of the move crossing a strong candle pushing the move, in this case a strong up candle.

Then, go to the next swing up (in the case of an up trend) and search for a previous low in respect to the low you picked before. Obviously, your second range (yellow) will be bigger than the first one. Also, try to look for the right spot placing the 50% crossing the middle of a good strong candle.

Next, find another two swings, higher and lower. This will be our bigger range (blue).


Now, see the 50% dotted lines. The third 50% (bigger range) falls under the second (medium size range), and the second falls lower than the first 50% dotted line. This "should" be a clear sign of market contraction. If the 2nd line were placed above the 1st and the 3rd was on top of the 2nd, the market would be expanding so we would expect higher levels.

Notice you can play with this toy choosing other spots to place your lines, but if you don't force things results will be more or less the same.
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  • #901,428
  • May 29, 2014 6:34am May 29, 2014 6:34am
Quoting WillyWonka
{quote} Please give it a rest.....
Well, I'll take it that your not willing to share your opinion with us all.
Ever thought about how much money you could earn wagering against yourself?
  • #901,429
  • May 29, 2014 6:35am May 29, 2014 6:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} atm i am watching to see if she goes to 3632/33 or more. even better is a drop before to 359x w/o making a LL... if this happens, it would be the first sign of a bounce in a while. a bounce would give sideliners a chance to short from higher. we moved 400+ pips, the move needs fresh blood. to get better ma. moves slow and traders bail. each short closed is a long.
i am not bullish. dont take me anticipating a bounce as bullish. its just observation. 3632/33 is just a small bull set/up. its below the normal retrace for a small bear wanting 3556. that retrace would be 3640 but below 3669 in normal times before 3556. but below 3669... so the odds are with the bears wanting 40 and the bulls 32.. we would go to 32 or more. the normal place to launch this is 3597 w/o a LL. Low atm is 3585. a retrace to 3640/68 may be all bears need to continue, its just not proportional to the 400+ pip drop at 65 pips.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #901,430
  • May 29, 2014 6:35am May 29, 2014 6:35am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} You can apply the 3 period rule. If by the third close of candlestick in the respective time frame (where you entered the trade) you still not in profit and assuming you not using other type of Stop loss, you just close it manually.
Nice rule. Although I trade engulfing patterns. Which I use to determine my sl. So should the candle I enter be engulfed even on the very next candle close then I would take the loss.
Ever thought about how much money you could earn wagering against yourself?
  • #901,431
  • May 29, 2014 6:36am May 29, 2014 6:36am
Quoting Goodvalley
{quote} Ok, still studying this method, so not claiming to be an expert or anything like that. See in the chart, you pick a little range between two swings in the middle of the trend (white). If it's not that clear where you should choose the right spot, you look for the 50% of the move crossing a strong candle pushing the move, in this case a strong up candle. Then, go to the next swing up (in the case of an up trend) and search for a previous low in respect to the low you picked before. Obviously, your second range (yellow) will be bigger than...
Thanks for sharing.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #901,432
  • May 29, 2014 6:39am May 29, 2014 6:39am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} You can apply the 3 period rule. If by the third close of candlestick in the respective time frame (where you entered the trade) you still not in profit and assuming you not using other type of Stop loss, you just close it manually.
Hello Pedro, That is an interest rule to help with stop loss. Question: Does it matter what time frame? Wouldn't a five minute chart be to quick to get out? or a 4hr/day chart be too long & you lose more? I understand what you r saying, I'm just trying to grasp the time factor. I've read somewhere you should give it a least an hour after you get in. But I mainly do a lot of long term trading off the 1 hr or 4 hour charts. The rule you quoted seems to be more for scalping technique? Thanks for your input on this.
  • #901,433
  • May 29, 2014 6:46am May 29, 2014 6:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i am not bullish. dont take me anticipating a bounce as bullish. its just observation. 3632/33 is just a small bull set/up. its below the normal retrace for a small bear wanting 3556. that retrace would be 3640 but below 3669 in normal times before 3556. but below 3669... so the odds are with the bears wanting 40 and the bulls 32.. we would go to 32 or more. the normal place to launch this is 3597 w/o a LL. Low atm is 3585. a retrace to 3640/68 may be all bears need to continue, its just not proportional to the 400+ pip drop at 65 pips.
in the above post if the bulls are here. they would easily push this thing to the extremes of the small bear setup for 3556. and if they are strong enough they will push above 68.. so at/near 68 (-69) is a sweet spot...one could risk a little + spread. and they will not be waiting around all day waiting to tp or s/o
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #901,434
  • May 29, 2014 6:46am May 29, 2014 6:46am
Quoting FibsWork4Me
{quote} Nice rule. Although I trade engulfing patterns. Which I use to determine my sl. So should the candle I enter be engulfed even on the very next candle close then I would take the loss.
I have a similar method. The stops should be placed few pips below the pattern. If you are stopped out, I guess you have to wait for another setup or realize whether that one was a genuine move or just a wash and rinse.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #901,435
  • May 29, 2014 6:49am May 29, 2014 6:49am
Quoting champoooy
US can't give good numbers now. Or it will badly hurt other majors; EUR, GBP and AUD. I believe that there is 85% chance for them to give negative data.
Hey guys, I jus picked this quote up off the news area a minute ago. We do have a lot of usd news coming up. What do you think? Will EUR/USD go up or down?
  • #901,436
  • May 29, 2014 6:50am May 29, 2014 6:50am
Quoting milam
{quote} Thanks for sharing.
This, apart from being visual, can lead us to call a clear top on a long trend. If (IF) we're spot on, the advantages are obvious.
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  • #901,437
  • May 29, 2014 6:50am May 29, 2014 6:50am
Quoting mr.stjoeguy
{quote} Hello Pedro, That is an interest rule to help with stop loss. Question: Does it matter what time frame? Wouldn't a five minute chart be to quick to get out? or a 4hr/day chart be too long & you lose more? I understand what you r saying, I'm just trying to grasp the time factor. I've read somewhere you should give it a least an hour after you get in. But I mainly do a lot of long term trading off the 1 hr or 4 hour charts. The rule you quoted seems to be more for scalping technique? Thanks for your input on this.
It could be 3 Months... What matters is the time frame where you enter the trade. Everything else is money management and discipline. Like any rule, it only works if you stick to it, NO MATTER WHAT.
I can recommend good material for you to read.
Cheers.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #901,438
  • May 29, 2014 6:53am May 29, 2014 6:53am
Quoting milam
{quote} made another entry @13 risking 5, gained my risk covered half, now both of my Sl are @ 7 {image}
closed the remaining @ +5
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #901,439
  • May 29, 2014 6:55am May 29, 2014 6:55am
Quoting chazzle
looking at UJ for next st bounce
UJ H4

got quite a good entry and added - will hold it for now since we had a fairly decent H4 close/ bounce out of the s/r / mid area - below 61.8% level and it starts to look dubious ... I'm out of here - gl all
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  • #901,440
  • May 29, 2014 6:57am May 29, 2014 6:57am
Quoting milam
{quote} closed the remaining @ +5
don't blame you - looking a bit H&S like on LTFs - good work
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