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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #46,361
  • Edited 11:13am May 27, 2014 11:00am | Edited 11:13am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I agree. I'd like to see (some of) these people put in stocks before being hanged for public entertainment. But people have been banged up for a lot less than $2k: "Nicholas Robinson, 23, was jailed for six months for looting a £3.50 case of water from Lidl." http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...fan-Hoyle.html
ha ha
  • #46,362
  • May 27, 2014 12:03pm May 27, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting forexings
No reason to sell atm Price bounced off after breaking old low. Let's see if we can see another peak.
Yes, you are right, Forexings.

There is no reason to sell while Yellen remains muddy on rate decision and 101.00 would hold.
No reason to rally any further either till next week NFP.

USD GDP in 2 days, and that's about it.

101.00 is firm.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #46,363
  • May 27, 2014 12:07pm May 27, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting sergo
When people manipulated market and make billions they get away with it ,it's normal but if I go robbed the bank for $2000 i'll probably get 10 years jail makes me sick
You need to steal at least $500,000 then you'll only get 3 years........
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #46,364
  • May 27, 2014 12:12pm May 27, 2014 12:12pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} You need to steal at least $500,000 then you'll only get 3 years........
More I steal the las time I get
  • #46,365
  • May 27, 2014 1:05pm May 27, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting sergo
{quote} More I steal the las time I get
Exception you can only steal from poor people but if you steal from reach you going to jail
  • #46,366
  • May 27, 2014 10:10pm May 27, 2014 10:10pm
Last hour was formed an interesting 1h pinbar off the 61.8% Fib of Tuesday's range. Buyers shouldn't allow price to move past 101.88 on Wednesday.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #46,367
  • May 27, 2014 10:17pm May 27, 2014 10:17pm
Here is the chart from above post:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5.27.14 USDJPY 1HR.png Size: 20 KB
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #46,368
  • May 28, 2014 2:17am May 28, 2014 2:17am
Quoting zusch
Here is the chart from above post: {image}
welcome back.

long time no see no hear.

made some cash and went on long holiday? hehehe
  • #46,369
  • Edited 3:39pm May 28, 2014 2:56am | Edited 3:39pm
Quoting zusch
Last hour was formed an interesting 1h pinbar off the 61.8% Fib of Tuesday's range. Buyers shouldn't allow price to move past 101.88 on Wednesday.
Harmonic guru Scott Carney considers the 78.6 FIB to be possibly the most important one. Illustrated nicely here as buyers defend next level below the 61.8 FIB.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj 71.6.jpg Size: 149 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #46,370
  • May 28, 2014 7:07am May 28, 2014 7:07am
Possible?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ.JPG Size: 87 KB
  • #46,371
  • May 28, 2014 8:05am May 28, 2014 8:05am
One of the most traded currency pair USD/JPY, still ranging between key levels 102.00 and 101.65. Last months of 2013, currency pair realized spectacular increase but then the bears took advantage. Now we are witnesses of unsuccessful trying by the price to create new trend.

Let’s analyse the day chart. Last week the psychology level 101.00 was breakout but EMA 200 stopped the price to continue decline. After price movements all short trade investors will have much more confident for their positions. If we add trend line, we will seе new levels of resistance and curious fact, that the price located between 102.00 and 101.65. Only 35 pips divided currency pair by new breakout and this breakout can be signal for buy or sell.

If we analyse 4 hours chart, first thing, that will see is the down trend. But the power of bears look like will end soon. The MACD indicator helps us to determine divergence. That’s strong signal and we can expect new price decline.

Last few days american currency increased and realized good winnings for investors. Tomorrow all traders expecting GDP news for first quarter of 2014. The analysts predictions are negative and if they are right, the american currency will lost some value.

So i can summarize the japanese yen looks like haven’t enough power and i think it will decline soon. No matter what will be tomorrow news i will sell carefully.
  • #46,372
  • May 28, 2014 10:29am May 28, 2014 10:29am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} welcome back. long time no see no hear. made some cash and went on long holiday? hehehe
lol nah, just haven't been focusing much on FX as U.S. equities have been trending much better (at least compared to U/J and FX in general).

What is weird about U/J right now is that USD is showing a lot of strength as EURUSD looks weak, AUDUSD looks weak, but U/J still refusing to move out of this range.

E/U, A/U are probably the right pairs to trade short at this point. Retail is overall long those pairs along with U/J.
http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...osition-ratios
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #46,373
  • May 28, 2014 10:38am May 28, 2014 10:38am
"What is weird about U/J right now is that USD is showing a lot of strength .... but U/J still refusing to move out of this range."

Tell me about it!!

I have two longs, aggregate position 101.77 and I've been waiting 3 hours for something definite to happen.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #46,374
  • May 28, 2014 10:46am May 28, 2014 10:46am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Harmonic guru Scott Carney considers the 71.6 FIB to be possibly the most important one. Illustrated nicely here as buyers defend next level below the 61.8 FIB. {image}
Is 71.6 a typo? I've seen 76.4 and 78.6 used, but not 71.6.

Regardless, traders have different methods and different experiences in the market. As a momentum trader, I really prefer price not to retrace more than 50% of the previous day. Generally, less retrace = more power in intended direction. The 61.8 Fib for me is essentially the last line of defense.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #46,375
  • May 28, 2014 10:50am May 28, 2014 10:50am
UJ doesn't looks good, cannot break 102 and 10y yields under 2.5%
maybe another fall < 101 is in the cards. conclusion is anybody with the finger on "buy" command should wait for now, better to buy above 102 with some bullish signs than now, specially when the bond market doesn't believe in inflation which was an important driver for UJ bulls. my 2 cents..
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #46,376
  • May 28, 2014 11:23am May 28, 2014 11:23am
Quoting bikov
UJ doesn't looks good, cannot break 102 and 10y yields under 2.5% maybe another fall < 101 is in the cards. conclusion is anybody with the finger on "buy" command should wait for now, better to buy above 102 with some bullish signs than now, specially when the bond market doesn't believe in inflation which was an important driver for UJ bulls. my 2 cents..
  • #46,377
  • May 28, 2014 1:22pm May 28, 2014 1:22pm
So boring these days.... I went long at 101.70 a few hours ago and it barely moved. I just managed a few quick scalps on EU today, oh well... we live to fight another day, maybe tomorrow some more movement as the month comes to an end.


Regards and green pips to all,
VladG



P.S: is anyone trading some exotics like TRY, BRL, ZAR or SGD ? This evening we might see some movement from Brazil !?!
  • #46,378
  • Edited 3:54pm May 28, 2014 3:39pm | Edited 3:54pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} Is 71.6 a typo? I've seen 76.4 and 78.6 used, but not 71.6. Regardless, traders have different methods and different experiences in the market. As a momentum trader, I really prefer price not to retrace more than 50% of the previous day. Generally, less retrace = more power in intended direction. The 61.8 Fib for me is essentially the last line of defense.
Yes sir, a good old fashioned typo 78.6 is the flavor of the day
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #46,379
  • May 28, 2014 3:53pm May 28, 2014 3:53pm
Another interesting tidbit with this pair. It correlates at 81% with the Nikkei225 which was up about 0.7% in the past two days yet the dollar hasn't followed suit.

Possible Nikkei correction back too 14000, possible correction in the SP500 after making an all time high, Treasury yields below 2.5%, all UJ negative and I think the smart money is a bit leery of buying UJ anywhere near 102.

IMO, we need to visit 101.25 area before any significant move up.

Good luck traders
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #46,380
  • May 28, 2014 4:21pm May 28, 2014 4:21pm
I am of the mind that 99.56 is what is calling the pair. It is a past monthly point of control on the downside. Could be met if the weekly point of control 101.28 is broken. 98.58 after 99.56 if that doesn't hold. Some think 100 wont be broken but my weekly and monthly chart is telling me otherwise, I do view these timeframes differently than some though. Price has been in balance for 4 months now with downward momentum behind it. Below 101.48 may lead a new lower low, if so then momentum may carry it further down.
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