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Sonic R. System

  • #72,481
  • Edited 12:39pm May 28, 2014 11:48am | Edited 12:39pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} More on Absolutes & GBPUSD: That is a nice, "catchy" phrase, but it belies the sometimes very short term of effectiveness. This is becoming bearish, and retraces aside, this could start to go much, much lower. It is not so good to put absolute faith into such simplistic "rules". The Deceiving & Thieving MMs will make a mockery of them whenever they want to. You believe this statement that strength is in down bars and that it means there is actually buying that is increasing, and this will lead to a price reversal? Do you really believe that is always the case? All the MMs have to do is keep pouring on the selling to keep driving down the price while "rule believing buyers" flock in to give the MMs liquidity for more shorting! Sonicers, if you put your absolute faith into all the nicely coined terms and phrases used by the market, you will absolutely fail! This is not the way of Sonicers. -tah {image}
Quoting billko1977
{quote} For me one very important thing to remember is that ALL strength is shown on down bars and ALL weakness is shown on up bars... The 1 hr image you posted is all buying. Either short closing= buying or long opening = buying EDIT: I am not giving trade recommendations. Just because there is buying here does not mean one should enter long. Please use your own analysis and judgment to determine trade direction as Tah states below. {image}
I do have an opinion, that'll just a beginning of much deeper low. Significant downward push, maybe opened up some retracement up. But the up will be limited. On this scenario, everbody that tempted to enter long have to be aware with the risk and the limitation. Take long opportunity only when bear start weakened. For newcomer of sonic, I do not recommend long. Wait until retracement up finished by looking the sign of weakness by bull, then jumping in.

Do not chase the momentum if you can not find the escape. If it's long way to the door you're in big trouble.

Regards,
Gupito Poernawan
On a good day, I'm okay...
On a bad day, I'm okay too...
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It's all started from page one
  • #72,482
  • May 28, 2014 11:52am May 28, 2014 11:52am
Quoting Gupito1508
{quote} {quote} I do have an opinion, that'll just a beginning of much deeper low. Significant downward push, maybe opened up some retracement up. But the up will be limited. On this scenario, everbody that tempted to enter long have to be aware with the risk and the limitation. Take long opportunity only when bear start weakened. For newcomer of sonic, I do not recommend long. Wait until retracement up finished by looking the sign of weakness by bull, then jumping in. Do not chase the momentum if you can not find the escape. If it's long way to...
thanks, this explanation should clear the air out, some sort of retracement make sense in order to drive down more..
  • #72,483
  • Edited 12:31pm May 28, 2014 12:01pm | Edited 12:31pm
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USD strengthen this few days, maybe running ahead for tomorrow news and end this month with big weak news? tomorrow will be interesting..


AUD/USD they executed perfectly and dont want let people realize they are bulls.
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just speculating, i might wrong. what do you think prof.tah?

feinan
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  • #72,484
  • May 28, 2014 12:03pm May 28, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting Gupito1508
{quote} {quote} I do have an opinion, that'll just a beginning of much deeper low. Significant downward push, maybe opened up some retracement up. But the up will be limited. On this scenario, everbody that tempted to enter long have to be aware with the risk and the limitation. Take long opportunity only when bear start weakened. For newcomer of sonic, I do not recommend long. Wait until retracement up finished by looking the sign of weakness by bull, then jumping in. Do not chase the momentum if you can not find the escape. If it's long way to...
Gupito1508,

Once again your insight is invaluable. I have no intentions of doing anything with GBP/USD until things calm down and give me some clear signals about where to go. I was just trying to help bolehbah69 understand what loeil MAY have been looking at. Thats all.

I hope you dont mind but im adopting you as my mentor.... lol. Your posts are always just what i need to keep my focus on the task at hand instead of getting caught up in all the non sense that goes on around here...
Thanks again

Bill
  • #72,485
  • Edited 12:23pm May 28, 2014 12:05pm | Edited 12:23pm
Quoting traderathome
GBPJPY Short Trade Opened: Entered with Scout. What I see is a lot of activity above the half number without price going either up or down. Since this activity is above the half number, according to PVSRA the odds are the Robber Banks are accumulating shorts, hence my short entry. Time will tell. {image}
GBPJPY Short Trade Closed:

Closed trade for 1,597.3 pips gain. Subsequent to the initial entry, I added two short Scouts. Then price reversed on me. At the half number I thought the hike was done and added two more short Scouts. Price ranged, popped towards the upper whole number and fell to the half number area again, where I added my final short Scout. I added when the MMs moved price against my trade because my analysis was that the trade was valid,....not a time to fold or just hold, but to add.

I thought the MMs would support YEN pair prices and even drive UJ higher, but this has not happened. For this trade, price is back to support. From here it could get hiked again, or just proceed lower. I do not know and so I decided to take profit and wait and see what future PA looks like.
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  • #72,486
  • May 28, 2014 12:22pm May 28, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting traderathome
EURUSD Short Trade Opened: Entered with three Classics. I have been trading this up and down for some days now, but not posting. I decided to post this one to show folks what a Classic setup looks like. {image}
EURUSD Short Trade Closed:

Closed trade for 2,968 pips gain. Subsequent to the entry with three Classics, I added another.

This pair is slow to drop. The MMs are stepping it down only gradually. Price is now below a whole number and a retrace might be the next event. I decided to take profit and await future PA.
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  • #72,487
  • May 28, 2014 12:54pm May 28, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting traderathome
USDCAD Long Trade Opened: Entered long #1, pre-LS Classic and #2 Scout on retrace. No TP set at this time. {image}
USDCAD Long Trade Closed:

Closed trade for 804.3 pips gain. Subsequent to initial posting I added long Scouts to this trade.

My analysis was that the MMs were bulls. If they were (I still think they were and that they still are) they went into hibernation. This has been whipped and whacked to death, and going no where. I tired of it and so I have decided to take profit here and move on. This, like UJ, is not a pair I normally trade. I am out of it now, and happy to be so.
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  • #72,488
  • May 28, 2014 1:37pm May 28, 2014 1:37pm
Quoting billko1977
{quote} I dont care what anyone says.... holding trades like that until u are well in the green takes some balls. Thats badass Tah.
billko1977,

What it is, is bad trading. I get sick and tired of getting myself into trades like this. It happens due to poor trade management. I like to think I am getting better at not putting myself into such situations, but then sometimes I think nothing has changed at all. Yet, I continually strive to be more disciplined, so maybe the day will soon come that, like the train that kept saying, "I think I can. I think I can.", I will be over the top and on my way to "never more" of this sort of debacle. Even if the trade comes green, there is the pressure, the tying up of the funds, and possibly the lost time value of the money.

-tah
  • #72,489
  • May 28, 2014 1:56pm May 28, 2014 1:56pm
Wow the beast just doesn't care.. when it gets to moving, it's hard to stop it.. i set my TP way above where it was actually going. i was sleeping so i couldn't monitor this trade.. plus the beast scares me. oh well, profit locked.
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Trading is Easy.. Controlling your emotions is the hard part.
  • #72,490
  • May 28, 2014 2:17pm May 28, 2014 2:17pm
Quoting feinan
{image}USD strengthen this few days, maybe running ahead for tomorrow news and end this month with big weak news? tomorrow will be interesting.. AUD/USD they executed perfectly and dont want let people realize they are bulls. {image} {image} {image} just speculating, i might wrong. what do you think prof.tah? feinan

Hi, I am probably reading wrong but I am not seeing the volume you noted.
I wanted to share my screenshot of volume from another broker. I'm still new, but amazed you didnt have the green candlestick I did form 5/26 at 14:30. I entered a short on this earlier based on what I perceived as a classic. (Posted above.)

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  • #72,491
  • May 28, 2014 2:23pm May 28, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting traderathome
USDJPY Classic Long Trade Opened: Classic long, but pre-LS. This is based on bullish PA wave off of lows after pullback from whole number, and with Dragon recently crossing above Trend. {image}
USDJPY Classic Long Trade Closed:

Closed trade for 48.4 pips loss. Subsequent to initial post I added a couple more long Classics and various long Scouts.

I expected this to go higher. This has not happened. Price now looks bearish to me and now a retrace has achieved 50% of the bear swing down. Time to take my loss and exit. Like UCad, UJ is not a pair I normally trade. When I do, it more often than not gets the better of me, probably because it has a trading range that sucks, and I expect too much from it.
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  • #72,492
  • May 28, 2014 2:47pm May 28, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting feinan
{image}USD strengthen this few days, maybe running ahead for tomorrow news and end this month with big weak news? tomorrow will be interesting.. AUD/USD they executed perfectly and dont want let people realize they are bulls. {image} {image} {image} just speculating, i might wrong. what do you think prof.tah? feinan
AUDUSD;

I agree with the thought that the MMs are bulls.

The DAY chart trend is up. Twice in as many months now, the MMs whacked the price down and the lower whole number (0.9200) holds as strong support. The Dragon is still above the Trend and while we cannot know how price will move next, this PA could easily be the MMs loading longs again ahead of another bounce upwards. That has my vote. Let's see what happens.
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  • #72,493
  • May 28, 2014 2:54pm May 28, 2014 2:54pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EURUSD Short Trade Closed: Closed trade for 2,968 pips gain. Subsequent to the entry with three Classics, I added another. This pair is slow to drop. The MMs are stepping it down only gradually. Price is now below a whole number and a retrace might be the next event. I decided to take profit and await future PA. {image}
. Great. I like this example.
  • #72,494
  • May 28, 2014 2:59pm May 28, 2014 2:59pm
If I might bring something to your attention to hear what you think(now that I've read your AUD USD bullish bias I am having second thoughts though)
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  • #72,495
  • May 28, 2014 3:09pm May 28, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting DDaniel
If I might bring something to your attention to hear what you think(now that I've read your AUD USD bullish bias I am having second thoughts though) {image} {image} {image} {image}
AUDUSD is not the same as AUDJPY. Personally, I believe the former to be bullish and the latter (as with all YEN pairs) to be overall bearish. This is just one person's opinion, however. What counts is what the MMs do, and that we cannot know in advance.
  • #72,496
  • May 28, 2014 3:27pm May 28, 2014 3:27pm
NZDUSD:

I also think the MMs devoted today to torpedoing this one too, just like AUDUSD, in order to attract shorters and to get the price low again, both for the purpose of building long.
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  • #72,497
  • Edited 8:01pm May 28, 2014 6:29pm | Edited 8:01pm
[quote=feinan;7497720]{image}USD strengthen this few days

I think USD strength to continue across many pairs including NU and AU
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Solid Break of AU 9200 whole number could be nice classic just like its cousin NU has already begun see below...

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Entries in the wicks over and over **PVSRA rules!
  • #72,498
  • May 28, 2014 8:41pm May 28, 2014 8:41pm
AUDUSD

AUD skyrocket, before USD news.
Because I run through my analysis AUDUSD & NZDUSD run down (looks like grabbing more long), so feel today USD news AUDUSD & NZDUSD might go long if a proper classic set-up comes in.
btw just scalp +5.6pips because is asia session I scare lol.
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-AdrianC.
  • #72,499
  • May 28, 2014 9:08pm May 28, 2014 9:08pm
Two reasons why I short on AU:
1. RDH is the strong R of this week.
2. H1 and H4 are still down trend. The bear volumes are still dominant also in H4
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  • #72,500
  • May 28, 2014 9:39pm May 28, 2014 9:39pm
Quoting feinan
{image}USD strengthen this few days, maybe running ahead for tomorrow news and end this month with big weak news? tomorrow will be interesting.. AUD/USD they executed perfectly and dont want let people realize they are bulls. {image} {image} {image} just speculating, i might wrong. what do you think prof.tah? feinan
first told cha... target will be at 0.933x
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