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  • #900,841
  • May 26, 2014 11:12pm May 26, 2014 11:12pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} I hear you Kiwi. That SR (white line and 61.8) I have that's it now bouncing against is no small matter really. I've been tempted more than once to start building from here. If it goes up higher great, add more. Still undecided but I thought I might wait until some volatility comes along to see. It already tested the crap out of that TL and 50%. I'd like to see maybe a spike to the 200sma (green). Right now the 200ema (red) is choking it a bit.
yep, not to keen on the orange rising tl I cant see its origin but Im pretty sure its a secondary point of origin I prefer the one from early Jan which was the 1st touch from the rising tl Jan 2012
But I do like how you use your fibs, lots of different ways, but each touch of tl I find good for guide only problem is get too many touchs get too many fibs, but I can still use then find where the confluence take the level then remove them keeps the chart clean

My 2 cents is trend has changed since 8th of May 4 solid days of selling, and bulls barely got a look in, they are either putting in a bottom now or fighting a losing battle and soon to be crushed time will tell

By the way I have been already been building since May open and very very pleased with pa so far best seen on monthly with last months low the key for now
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #900,842
  • May 26, 2014 11:18pm May 26, 2014 11:18pm
Good Morning everybody .
EU probabilities rt now & then , thanks , take care because all can see may not true or success always. let's see before the believe .
fontu

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...10#post7493310
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #900,843
  • Edited 11:34pm May 26, 2014 11:18pm | Edited 11:34pm
the 6 days HV (historical volatility) had drooped more than 60% compare the the 100 days of HV (contraction) in the last 3 days, it could be time to get back to the same levels of 100 HV (expansion)...... in which direction is not clear.....nobody knows...a wide rage bar larger than the last 10 days would probably confirm that...or a sell stop trigger under the latest daily bar is on option considering that adx is at 29 and -Di is above +Di....
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #900,844
  • May 26, 2014 11:23pm May 26, 2014 11:23pm
Quoting saver0
Now might be the time to add to your shorts Today's pattern looks very similar to that of 2008.10.23 (~90% similar up to 300 bars in 30M). Attached is the screenshot. It could be a bull trap. So be careful setting too high long targets. {image}

Here is more of my reasoning for why at this moment it seems we may be getting ready to go down even further.

USDCHF seems to be gearing for a continuation of the bulls as well. I'm at the moment waiting for my indicators to tell me a good shorting opportunity.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #900,845
  • May 26, 2014 11:24pm May 26, 2014 11:24pm
EUR/USD Am trying to Short in Sell Limit at 1.37071, Hope things well go well..
  • #900,846
  • May 26, 2014 11:30pm May 26, 2014 11:30pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} yep, not to keen on the orange rising tl I cant see its origin but Im pretty sure its a secondary point of origin I prefer the one from early Jan which was the 1st touch from the rising tl Jan 2012 But I do like how you use your fibs, lots of different ways, but each touch of tl I find good for guide only problem is get too many touchs get too many fibs, but I can still use then find where the confluence take the level then remove them keeps the chart clean My 2 cents is trend has changed since 8th of May 4 solid days of selling,...
Whoops, sorry about that Daily TL origin . Here it is on a weekly along with the weekly TL I (think) you mean as well? I normally only display them on each individual TF. I'm a small fish day trader so while I do always keep the big picture in mind, I'm forced to set it aside on day basis.

I'm just getting into harmonics now so yeah, The fibs tend to get a bit messy at times as I watch levels. I do prefer clean charts.

Interesting on this view. The Blue 50ema along with the 1.13 sits at my first short target of 1.3565ish and the weekly TL crosses the 1.38 at 1.3470ish. Target # two perhaps? Nice confluence with both 200's (red & green) and the 100ema (yellow) as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdmweekly.png Size: 76 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #900,847
  • May 26, 2014 11:35pm May 26, 2014 11:35pm
that week closing below 3661 makes me skeptical of the bounce strength. the st bulls had sights on 3671. we never made it to 3627/28 before, like it would usually. so i dont trust this move. . so we may go to 3592.. i have been waiting for a bounce, 3671 would be the first complete one in weeks if we made it.. even so, atm we did not retrace for it. and if we did retrace it would take us below 3661 again. i closed trades and opened others using 3671 needing 3627.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #900,848
  • May 26, 2014 11:37pm May 26, 2014 11:37pm
Quoting saver0
{quote} Here is more of my reasoning for why at this moment it seems we may be getting ready to go down even further. USDCHF seems to be gearing for a continuation of the bulls as well. I'm at the moment waiting for my indicators to tell me a good shorting opportunity. {image} {image}
Here is the 4H targets. It looks like the probability is on the side of Longs on EU up to the 23% Fib (and 23% Fib Short on USDCHF) as of now. Long trades should be safe with smaller TP targets. I would still wait for a slight pullback before going long. Let's see how things play out
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #900,849
  • May 26, 2014 11:43pm May 26, 2014 11:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i have 92 also,, 3634 to 3592 has 3613.5 in the middle. i considered this to 3661. on my hands w/o some little evidence
st aimed for 3671. just kinda sceptical with the week close below 3661.. sunday the low is here. friday we didn't know this. the assumption of 2#s led to 3613.5. its either wrong or an astronomical shot of luck.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #900,850
  • May 26, 2014 11:49pm May 26, 2014 11:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} st aimed for 3671. just kinda sceptical with the week close below 3661.. sunday the low is here. friday we didn't know this. the assumption of 2#s led to 3613.5. its either wrong or an astronomical shot of luck.

Hi Gator,
I need experienced info about ATR. Which ATR is more important? Dynamic or Static according to your observation with ATR indi I posted for you. Thanks

Edit: And what is the best period for ATR .
  • #900,851
  • May 26, 2014 11:54pm May 26, 2014 11:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
that week closing below 3661 makes me skeptical of the bounce strength. the st bulls had sights on 3671. we never made it to 3627/28 before, like it would usually. so i dont trust this move. . so we may go to 3592.. i have been waiting for a bounce, 3671 would be the first complete one in weeks if we made it.. even so, atm we did not retrace for it. and if we did retrace it would take us below 3661 again. i closed trades and opened others using 3671 needing 3627.
I have to agree gator. This thing bounced like a dead cat and not even close to what I thought would happen. I was looking to start building shorts at 3703/3734 area. It could surprise I guess but it'd take some doing at this point. I'm wondering if the elections might have just held it back for a spell, or stopped it all together.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #900,852
  • May 27, 2014 12:06am May 27, 2014 12:06am
hi everybody,
because of silent day that passed I think today we have busy day, lets see what happened
  • #900,853
  • May 27, 2014 12:48am May 27, 2014 12:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} st aimed for 3671. just kinda sceptical with the week close below 3661.. sunday the low is here. friday we didn't know this. the assumption of 2#s led to 3613.5. its either wrong or an astronomical shot of luck.
looks difficult. the move from 50 to 68 was on low volumes and in illiquid conditions. london may move it back to 70 but it would be sold again. I was bullish yesterday but I don't think it goes up now. I closed my long in 20 pips. 3636 is where some longs were loaded yesterday. 3612 is sunday low. will look somewhere around 3640 or 3668 to load shorts again
  • #900,854
  • May 27, 2014 12:57am May 27, 2014 12:57am
Morning guys,


For all the ones who are still building longs or keeping them from previous higher values, I advise caution because of the doubletop formed in the last days + the RSI's direction pointed downward. Also as I stated a few pages ago Ichimokus KijunSen on monthly is around 1.31-32ish area and on USDCHF is around 0.92-0.93, so with this + the bearish ECB recent stance for the EUR I would say that in the next 4-6 weeks we can see the levels mentioned above.



Best regards and green pips to all,
VladG
  • #900,855
  • May 27, 2014 1:11am May 27, 2014 1:11am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Hi Gator, I need experienced info about ATR. Which ATR is more important? Dynamic or Static according to your observation with ATR indi I posted for you. Thanks Edit: And what is the best period for ATR .
i never opened it. i am a software idiot. its zipped and it never opened like they once did.. so i haven't used it. years ago it seemed to give some good places to tp.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #900,856
  • May 27, 2014 1:15am May 27, 2014 1:15am
Quoting MisterSpread
Morning guys, For all the ones who are still building longs or keeping them from previous higher values, I advise caution because of the doubletop formed in the last days + the RSI's direction pointed downward. Also as I stated a few pages ago Ichimokus KijunSen on monthly is around 1.31-32ish area and on USDCHF is around 0.92-0.93, so with this + the bearish ECB recent stance for the EUR I would say that in the next 4-6 weeks we can see the levels mentioned above. Best regards and green pips to all, VladG
I agree with you and shakiba but I think in the short term (this week, next), it's very possible to see a 23% Fib retracement. If you want to go short, that might be the low risk high reward short entry in my opinion for now.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
  • #900,857
  • May 27, 2014 1:21am May 27, 2014 1:21am
Quoting saver0
{quote} I agree with you and shakiba but I think in the short term (this week, next), it's very possible to see a 23% Fib retracement. If you want to go short, that might be the low risk high reward short entry in my opinion for now.

Well I just added another short at 1.36512, nothing major but I just want to have something opened from this position of ECB will go for negative rates or some other driver will push the pair towards the 1.34 area .


Cheers and green pips to you saveR
  • #900,858
  • May 27, 2014 1:24am May 27, 2014 1:24am
Expecting a bounce from 3638 to 368x then down to 359x
  • #900,859
  • May 27, 2014 1:25am May 27, 2014 1:25am
is attila's membership revoked or has he changed the status manually???

I see his status as Membership Revoked
  • #900,860
  • May 27, 2014 1:47am May 27, 2014 1:47am
Quoting albchr
{quote} I have to agree gator. This thing bounced like a dead cat and not even close to what I thought would happen. I was looking to start building shorts at 3703/3734 area. It could surprise I guess but it'd take some doing at this point. I'm wondering if the elections might have just held it back for a spell, or stopped it all together.
that last move down could use 3684/90 from a bear perspective. if the bulls could get the first wave completed at 71, 84/90 may be worth waiting for. i hate not having a bounce. i thought 3832 or even now 3745 then again. 3966 has been in years of the making for a third hit. if 1876 was a break out. we have had 3 shots at 3966. 2 humps and a third half hump. if its the real deal, bounces not needed on these small scales
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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