Do you believe this market is random? | Page 25 | Forex Factory

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Do you believe this market is random?

  • #481
  • May 25, 2014 1:13am May 25, 2014 1:13am
Quoting Porkpie
Essentially, the market is a mirror of human behaviour which at times is seemingly random and chaotic. However, once you put humans under particular types of stress, then the behaviour becomes more predictable. To illustrate this, a fire alarm goes off in the cinema, what are most people likely to do? With the market, a news item is positive for for the $, the market spikes showing $ strength what are people most likely to do? Or the market makes a yearly high, what are most people likely to do? Couple this with the socio-economic engineering by...
Legit.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #482
  • May 25, 2014 1:37am May 25, 2014 1:37am
Quoting Aaronfb
"Random" is a word that has no basis in reality. So the question is does the market give you enough information to predict where it is headed next?
Hi Aaronfb, you got it backwards.

Market is always there, information is always there up on your screen. Question is do you have the proper knowledge to interpret and make proper prediction and execution to be profitable.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #483
  • May 25, 2014 1:51am May 25, 2014 1:51am
Quoting Legionary
How will you know? For simplicity example is simplified (but true or easier than real FX market) Time: - sell/buy 10:03 someone buys 10.000 10.04 John buy 2.000 10.05 someone sells 30.000 10.06 someone sells 70.000 10.07 Clive sell 1.000 10.08 someone buys 50.000 10.09 someone sells 78.000 10.10 someone buys 300.000 10.11 Peter buy 5.000 10.12 someone buys 100.000 10.13 someone sells 500.000 10.14 someone buys 250.000 10.15 someone sells 4.000.000 10.16 Henry sell 25.000 10.17 someone buys 12.000.000 Please let me know via pm or here, and please...
the ONLY thing you must list in your example that you missed was the entry PRICE for these transitions.
Therefore your example is stupid nonsense.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #484
  • May 25, 2014 1:54am May 25, 2014 1:54am
Quoting SeanyTsunami
Banks and hedge funds buy and sell currencies, these entities provide order flow which moves price. Looking at round numbers, longer term charts, like the daily and weekly. You can see areas that are respected and patterns that repeat themselves over and over. So, movements can be predicted fairly accurately with good technical skills and knowledge. There is dynamics to price movements and you can generally rely on the knowledge of these dynamics along with good discipline to have a good idea where price is headed.
Legit and agreed.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #485
  • May 25, 2014 1:57am May 25, 2014 1:57am
Quoting ronaleo10
Randomness doesnt exist in universe.
God gives everyone a path. Your path is stay away from trading.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #486
  • May 25, 2014 2:01am May 25, 2014 2:01am
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} did hawking discover something extraorinary?no. he's a puppet in a wheel chair. i'd go with einstein on the nature of the deterministic universe. he did not even had a tv and he predicted something fantastic. and also the role of imagination in making new discoveries in science.
Stephen Hawking is not stupid.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #487
  • May 25, 2014 2:17am May 25, 2014 2:17am
Quoting orabi
Nothing is random .every thing goes with in its own rules human think it is random because he dont know the rules if a bank buy bank price will raise this is a rule and if it took profit price will fall combined banks and hedge funds and small traders that buy and sell create the output picture because there act followed a rule and was not random the out put picture also can have a rule and logic that it move thought it discovering such a rule needs certain capabilities and minds but they do exist and until they are discovered people will see the...
200 words, ZERO punctuation.

When you put above possibilities and dozens other possibilities you failed to mention all together with $217 billion retail Forex DAILY volume, do you still think NOTHING IS RANDOM??? Trading is not flipping coins. Trading is not rolling dices.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #488
  • May 25, 2014 2:26am May 25, 2014 2:26am
Quoting Gwan
psst psst, here's a sample of possibilities http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat when a thing can actually have perfect 50% chance, it may still goes to 1 side, not both side, or stay in the middle say coin toss has 50% chance, that doesn't make the result to be 50% head and 50% tail because the occurrence maybe too few so when coin is tossed for 1 time only, we can say that the result is random and big bang only happens once, so you may say universe is randomized. do my mind miss something?
Randomness in trading solidly interact with probability.
It has absolutely nothing to do with with that damn cat in the box, big ban theory, or possibility.

It's probability NOT possibility. And again, I would guarantee you that your next 200 trades would ALL ended up different. Not so much coin flipping theory there, did it?
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #489
  • May 25, 2014 2:34am May 25, 2014 2:34am
Quoting victor_ray
I really don't want to do this because this thread shouldn't be bumping up any further. The 1st post was started on : Nov 5, 2013 2:51pm And all the people that have chance for input stop around Nov 11,2013. Also the question should already have been "absolutely answerED" in the timeframe that's why "no one need to input any further. Apparently one person have enough free time...to read old post and decide to comment... since there newbie who alway read the 1st page... it's likely they will read this thread so this thread could make or "break" them...
I give great amount of respect to someone would go through such length to further explanation on this topic. Thank you and bookmark.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #490
  • May 25, 2014 2:35am May 25, 2014 2:35am
Some good points fella.

So what is not random?

 

  1. The market opening times
  2. The sessions particular news releases are released
  3. The fact that the market is contained to a range or certain limit to it's movement. I can safely say that a 1 million pip will definitely not happen on any pair.
  4. The fact that S/R areas whether they will hold or not, do exist, and most traders whether they believe in them or not will acknowledge their existence.
  5. Trends happen
  6. Trends fail
  7. Every single strategy can work... sometimes


You could list another 100 things that are not random about the market. All of the above directly or indirectly, have some bearing on price movements.

like totally failure brah
  • #491
  • May 25, 2014 2:38am May 25, 2014 2:38am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} people would be convinced if you could supply any piece of evidence to back up your claims, but nobody can.
like totally failure brah
  • #492
  • May 25, 2014 2:42am May 25, 2014 2:42am
Quoting dkrock
Since this is still a viable question, and a lot of answers refer to fundamentals, allow me to provide a mathematical response to "randomness", since it is a mathematical anomaly. In my experience, the markets are predictable, very predictable, in all but five situations. 1. Stop hunts. If you do not think your stop loss is intentionally triggered, you are only fooling yourself. The worst type of stop loss trigger is the spike candle and it is impossible to predict. It usually occurs within 30 minutes of a market open, 5 seconds to 5 minutes before...
Off top of my head, 6. News such as rate hike and etc that would fundamentally change price direction. For example, if Yellen tomorrow state rate hike will be in place in June, USDJPY will over be 105.00. Anything under 105.00 is a BUY. That's a prediction, a valid prediction.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #493
  • May 25, 2014 2:54am May 25, 2014 2:54am
Get ready to get your bubble ripped apart.

School is in section. Reality is here.

87 won over 89 trades, 98% probability, 12 longs and 77 shorts, average hold time 59 minutes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-5-24 22-14-54.png Size: 335 KB


9/26-9/30 62 won over 62 trades, 100 probability, 41 longs and 21 shorts, average hold time 3 hours
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-5-24 22-14-19.png Size: 377 KB


You want the evident, and here is your evident.
Now tell me where is your RANDOMNESS????
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #494
  • May 25, 2014 2:57am May 25, 2014 2:57am
Quoting FXSayWhat
where is your RANDOMNESS????
In your signature

Inserted Video
like totally failure brah
  • #495
  • May 25, 2014 3:05am May 25, 2014 3:05am
Quoting simonb
{quote} In your signature https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPq36Zp9cJY
feel free to follow me and looking forward to see yours too.

I will put this topic in rest now. As my 2-hour forum section is ending, good night and good luck everyone (102 of you).
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #496
  • May 25, 2014 3:19am May 25, 2014 3:19am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} feel free to follow me and looking forward to see yours too. I will put this topic in rest now. As my 2-hour forum section is ending, good night and good luck everyone (102 of you).
Just check my journal, I don't post hindsight demo statistics, it seems to me more like a wet dream. All my trades are before they happen... And live.
Anything else is a scam by default, either scamming your own self, or the people who stumble across your ego. (in my opinion)

Sure I'll follow you for a bit. Let's see what you got.
like totally failure brah
  • #497
  • Edited 4:39am May 25, 2014 3:31am | Edited 4:39am
Quoting simonb
{quote} Just check my journal, I don't post hindsight demo statistics, it seems to me more like a wet dream. All my trades are before they happen... And live. Anything else is a scam by default, either scamming your own self, or the people who stumble across your ego. (in my opinion) Sure I'll follow you for a bit. Let's see what you got.
Get a demo and do 60 trades for a week see what you got.

I don't scam anyone only give evident to back up my statement. Other than that i don't really give a damn about what people believe.
Learn or not to learn choice is his hand really.

zero ego involvement.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #498
  • May 25, 2014 3:37am May 25, 2014 3:37am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Get a demo and do 60 trades for a week see what you got. I don't scam anyone only give evident to back up my statement. Other than that i don't really give a damn about that people believe. Learn or not to learn choice is you his hand really. zero ego.
Everyone has an ego my friend. It's not a bad thing.

The thing about demo is... It's not real
like totally failure brah
  • #499
  • Edited 4:40am May 25, 2014 3:38am | Edited 4:40am
say two weeks later i proof i get the same winning streak on my live. Does that bring me the pleasure of proofing the FF community that i am absolutely right on this topic? No, i am just doing that i do the best and make some money.

Most of you should feel grateful seeing i posting out my screenshot just to get your heads to somewhere that would take you years or forever (for some traders) to figure. 24 pages worth of posts, 0 evident till I comes in. Is that not the fact?
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #500
  • Edited 4:21am May 25, 2014 3:57am | Edited 4:21am
Quoting simonb
{quote} The thing about demo is... It's not real
Apparently my buddy here is pointing out one of the screenshots i posted above was a demo and NOT solidly enough to proof my statements.

Okay.

Are you ready now?

2 Months worth of data, 321 won out of 330, 97% probability.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-5-25 1-51-34.png Size: 72 KB


I guess it's my bad(?) i posted a demo TRY to back up my point on this subject. You want a live, here is your live.


This one goes to you, Simonb.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
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