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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #46,301
  • May 23, 2014 6:08am May 23, 2014 6:08am
Quoting santuary123
{quote} Yeah agree.. Will move to 102.xx (in green zone) Then will reversal from there {image}
There are a few zones where a reversal could happen. Unfortunately they are scattered across the region 101.90 to 102.80, or even 103.
Last night I sneaked a few pips with my first short on UJ for a long time, so I am watching the charts keenly.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #46,302
  • May 23, 2014 6:22am May 23, 2014 6:22am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Haha not doubting you just annoyed reading random post with "it will go there and here" "take the heed", ..... blablabla acting like someone who can control the markets. They even bother to quote their own post with "see I told you so"... Probably they are on something and in delusional state. Active substance can do funny thing to the brain. Some posters even claim having positions in yards........... Praise the Lord Hallelujah http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3UYrSQeZCk
Thanks, I really enjoyed that vid.
Seems to me that there are many more Americans with a sense of national pride than there are Brits with the same.
Or could be that I'm just too jaded.......
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #46,303
  • May 23, 2014 7:54am May 23, 2014 7:54am
Descending Trend line resistance near 102 can cap the upside move of UJ pair.
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  • #46,304
  • May 23, 2014 8:32am May 23, 2014 8:32am
Quoting Fx_Anil
Descending Trend line resistance near 102 can cap the upside move of UJ pair. {image}
i see resistance at that area too.. i rather watch n act carefully.. maybe this just up before another down who knows..
the true currencies here is patience and react precisely
  • #46,305
  • May 23, 2014 8:45am May 23, 2014 8:45am
Quoting Fx_Anil
Descending Trend line resistance near 102 can cap the upside move of UJ pair.
Fx_Anil, I am looking shorter term (to end of US trading today) and it has to really break 101.6 for me to be worried about downtrend
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forex forex forex
  • #46,306
  • Edited 9:03am May 23, 2014 8:45am | Edited 9:03am
I am short from 101.93, now stopped at BE.
PA bounced off 101.80 so will find out soon....

edit: on the basis of strong new-home data that just came in I closed my short.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #46,307
  • Edited 11:09am May 23, 2014 10:18am | Edited 11:09am
looks like UJ about to jump off the cliff

edit: wrong analysis
  • #46,308
  • May 23, 2014 10:46am May 23, 2014 10:46am
Well looks like it's stalling on the .900 where my h4 150ema lies. However on the 21st that daily pinbar and the large bull body closing above the 150 seems to me longs to around 103. Staying out though until monday, bank hols, so probably Tuesday will see where this goes
  • #46,309
  • May 23, 2014 11:55am May 23, 2014 11:55am
I'm done for the week. Y'all have a pleasant weekend.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #46,310
  • May 23, 2014 1:09pm May 23, 2014 1:09pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
She (Yellen) is going to say something like this, retail shows very weak recovery house shows very weak recovery Along with noticeable growth in Job Manufacturing Mixed news makes no further rate decision, 101.00 level probably will continue to hold for the time being.
And the 101.00 level held.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #46,311
  • May 23, 2014 1:15pm May 23, 2014 1:15pm
USDJPY is hitting its resist level at 102.00 level and 4H 200 SMA after 3 day worth of rally from its recent lowest 100.84.
Next week only has 4 New York sections and gonna have to wait and see what happens at 102.00.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #46,312
  • May 24, 2014 5:33am May 24, 2014 5:33am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} There is something weird going on in the FX market these days. FED is reducing QE, dollar is not appreciating. BoJ prints more Yen, Yen is not weakening. Other fundamentals support weaker Yen, but it is not..... I have no advice at this time except protect your capital. edit: I just noticed that the BoJ is directly intervening in the stock market.... "The Bank will purchase exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) so that their amounts outstanding will increase at an annual pace of about 1 trillion yen...

You have to look into a speculative view. Yes it is supposed to be very dependent on supply and demand. However, if you will notice, the exchange is already discounted. On the time that BoJ talked about easing, YEN was already start depreciating, despite of having no eases yet. Exchange Rates are significantly correlated with interest rates speculation. For example, CPI. You should also know the plans of the government for the economy. If they want to have a higher inflation, then expect the exchange rates to go up. One good example is Euro; Draghi said that having an expensive Euro will give them a difficult time of reaching their inflation target, which is higher. Thus, during the announcement, the EUR started dropping. There are just many factors to consider. For me, Yen would probably CAP at 104-105 since their CPI, PPI and other gauges are improving. Once they reach their inflation target, they will start tapering. And that's gonna happen soon. I agree to everyone that thinks USDJPY has already reached the ceiling and already moving in a long term bear. I will definitely start shorting at 102.50. Check the May 30's JPY forecasts btw. It will give you hint where Yen is headed.
  • #46,313
  • May 24, 2014 5:38am May 24, 2014 5:38am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} There are a few zones where a reversal could happen. Unfortunately they are scattered across the region 101.90 to 102.80, or even 103. Last night I sneaked a few pips with my first short on UJ for a long time, so I am watching the charts keenly.

I truly agree. I've been watching it for hours and it always had a strong resistance on thos levels. I think the only reason why it break 102 is because most of traders in banks consolidate and square off before the weekends. All short positions closed off. I work in a treasury, that's what we do I will definitely start shorting in 102.20 - 102.70 levels.
  • #46,314
  • May 24, 2014 6:27pm May 24, 2014 6:27pm
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  • #46,315
  • May 25, 2014 5:18am May 25, 2014 5:18am
NOT a trade recommendation, just sharing my plan.

Maybe a bit repetitive, but I like to spell out my plan in words for others as well as for myself rather than just throw up a chart and assume traders understand it. It also helps me to be more diligent and maybe someone new will pick up something helpful.

I like trading confluence zones because it is simple and makes it easy for me to see where my trade becomes invalid. My main problem is "readjusting" my trade parameters once it has been invalidated.

Confluence resistance:

WR1 @ 102.07
78.6FIB RT ON 4H @ 102.01
38.2FIB ON WEEKLY DRAWN FROM 0CT 2013 @ 102.04
200MA ON 4H @ 101.98
4H TRENDLINE FROM APRIL 29TH

***possible AB = CD harmonic with completion point approximately 100.45***

Fundamental concerns:

1) President Draghi speaking on Sunday. Hopefully he won't drop any Euro time bombs leading to any US strength
2) Japanese monetary minutes also on Sunday. I am assuming it will be the same priced in regurgitation.
3) Last week US 10year yields firmed up a bit. Increasing yields = US strength

Hopefully this zone will hold until Tuesdays US durable goods report. A rejection at resistance coupled with a lackluster durable goods number might just be the catalyst that sends the dollar south. Also Tuesday is consumer confidence, who knows, maybe an unexpected time bomb

Trade plan:

Enter: Limit sell upon market open (a little gap up would be nice)

SL: 102.15
TP1: 101.63
TP2: 101.07

If TP1 hits then SL for trade #2 will be adjusted to BE +10

That's my rant for the day, good luck traders!
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #46,316
  • May 25, 2014 11:09am May 25, 2014 11:09am
Weekly outlook:


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Price in the triangle. If you trading inside the triangle - SELL
  • #46,317
  • May 25, 2014 3:04pm May 25, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting ProfitFcom
Weekly outlook:
This is what I got for monthly...
Got a short on already. Will add more if price goes up. Will reverse at monthly trendline, around 100.3. Might go as low as 99.95. Will add to the long if it does.
To conclude:
Short target 100.3
Long entry 100.3, will add at 99.95
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  • #46,318
  • May 25, 2014 3:08pm May 25, 2014 3:08pm
Even that i'm short here on USD/JPY i discoved this in the weekend by looking on my charts.An abcd pattern but ho much high we can go?
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  • #46,319
  • May 25, 2014 3:45pm May 25, 2014 3:45pm
nice charts
  • #46,320
  • May 25, 2014 8:40pm May 25, 2014 8:40pm
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