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  • #900,381
  • May 23, 2014 4:31am May 23, 2014 4:31am
Quoting gatorinla
about to be s/o 3620... last entry was at 3630. total risk at 1% total on 3 trades. c/a 3645
Good trade
  • #900,382
  • May 23, 2014 4:34am May 23, 2014 4:34am
Quoting milam
{quote} If I may say...... you bought when most were selling.......you need to be patient ......if you wanted to buy, wait for a break of the tl and a test of the recent low, that will be the best option.......I am just sharing.....meant to be a constructive criticism....
Milam, as stated before - i don't scalp ... i shared the trade but not the reasons! The stop was triggered, so no harm done.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #900,383
  • May 23, 2014 4:40am May 23, 2014 4:40am
The Novices will be taking profit from their shorts cause they think its plain to see a slowing down of bearish pressure. That will lead into a a bull trap for setting up a nice stop hunting bar into the support area where the pro's are waiting for valid reasons.
Taking responsibility means believing that your outcomes are self-generated
  • #900,384
  • May 23, 2014 4:42am May 23, 2014 4:42am
Quoting Jcandle
The Novices will be taking profit from their shorts cause they think its plain to see a slowing down of bearish pressure. That will lead into a a bull trap for setting up a nice stop hunting bar into the support area where the pro's are waiting for valid reasons.
Yeah agree here.
  • #900,385
  • May 23, 2014 4:45am May 23, 2014 4:45am
Quoting math_GB
{quote} Indeed... I am not in a rush mate...
if it breaks 36 I will get quite excited

Inserted Video
  • #900,386
  • May 23, 2014 4:49am May 23, 2014 4:49am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} if it breaks 36 I will get quite excited http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gi5IEjeH6E


Not a Maxdoom production I hope...
  • #900,387
  • May 23, 2014 4:49am May 23, 2014 4:49am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} could be a while.... I have adds set at 3628 3615 which ever comes first for 3600 test
Next stop for the EURUSD is the 1.36 where my target is set.
Want to learn more: HTO Trading
  • #900,388
  • May 23, 2014 5:00am May 23, 2014 5:00am
a nice double top bear flag on the 5.......
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #900,389
  • May 23, 2014 5:06am May 23, 2014 5:06am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} This information is useless because it is too subjective. You think market is confused, I say it shows it is balanced. For market to move it needs imbalance. Imbalance requires market sentiment to change, or data release shift, or market movers to enter, or fundamental shift. We are none of the above' PA is never ever confused it knows exactly what it is doing, just because we seem confused doesn't make the market / pa confused. We as market movers are like a flea on a elephants buttock. All we have to make a decision is charts, and generally...
I love EU market. Whenever i show the open lot/positions indicators, i have only one point that big players will keep hunting majority side. I am not good in chart analysis because i am mathematician and i have methodology so i am making money in forex. For me it does not matter that price going down or up. I am making money in both ways.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #900,390
  • May 23, 2014 5:15am May 23, 2014 5:15am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} if it breaks 36 I will get quite excited http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gi5IEjeH6E
It will because 1.3523 is the next. After, let's see the market what decide. If 360° bear from last top was not enough, we could go to 1.3300 level.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #900,391
  • May 23, 2014 5:20am May 23, 2014 5:20am
Quoting aahmad29
{quote} I love EU market. Whenever i show the open lot/positions indicators, i have only one point that big players will keep hunting majority side. I am not good in chart analysis because i am mathematician and i have methodology so i am making money in forex. For me it does not matter that price going down or up. I am making money in both ways.
Can you share with us how you do your trading following your mathematical methodology? Thanks Ahmad
  • #900,392
  • May 23, 2014 5:21am May 23, 2014 5:21am
Quoting gatorinla
about to be s/o 3620... last entry was at 3630. total risk at 1% total on 3 trades. c/a 3645
took my money. today's close is on a larger tf. 3661 is the one i watch above or below. the week is ending and i dont want to hold. still looking to short higher. it seems it dont want to give the opportunity. possibly 3661 ish, its just not as high as i would have liked. and its less then normal. pa has a indication for 3561, but it still has not done what it does usually. on other target like 4146, most times it would have gone to 3102 before. the half way point from the high is 3547.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #900,393
  • May 23, 2014 5:27am May 23, 2014 5:27am
Quoting Alki
{quote} It will because 1.3523 is the next. After, let's see the market what decide. If 360° bear from last top was not enough, we could go to 1.3300 level.
no 3580 after
  • #900,394
  • Edited 5:53am May 23, 2014 5:31am | Edited 5:53am
Quoting Alki
{quote} It will because 1.3523 is the next. After, let's see the market what decide. If 360° bear from last top was not enough, we could go to 1.3300 level.
not many drivers for euro atm, it can only drop or it would be a pure gamble to bet on a bounce from here. No sign of bulls whatsoever....13580 is the place where I would start looking for a bounce.

However, worth noting that rating agencies have been upgrading sovereign debt of all Southern Europe: Portugal, Spain and Greece on the list. It doesn't seem to have an impact on FX as it used to.
  • #900,395
  • May 23, 2014 5:36am May 23, 2014 5:36am
Did anyone see what drive the weakness of Yen?
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #900,396
  • May 23, 2014 5:40am May 23, 2014 5:40am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} R u watching the Dollar index?! Some interesting things are happening there, count the last 8 bar and compare to EURUSD
it broke out north months ago and was at support on the retrace. the r/r chart is around somewhere.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #900,397
  • May 23, 2014 5:47am May 23, 2014 5:47am
still sliding eh?

*dances*
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #900,398
  • May 23, 2014 5:56am May 23, 2014 5:56am
Quoting Alki
Did anyone see what drive the weakness of Yen?
reality, its a nation on a volcano manufacturing w/o a domestic energy source. an aging population living on seaweed whose owes in interest its entire gdp.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #900,399
  • May 23, 2014 5:58am May 23, 2014 5:58am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} could be a while.... I have adds set at 3628 3615 which ever comes first for 3600 test
new low, entry made, now looking for 3600 test before 3580
  • #900,400
  • May 23, 2014 5:58am May 23, 2014 5:58am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} nice eh! even the consolidations have been flat topped and unable to make a decent flag have you given any thought to what draghi might see as a necessary value? I mean given that EU was hanging just under 1.4 at the time of his announcement of ready to act next time can we make any assumptions about what would make a material difference to warrant action? would a 5% drop be enough or 10% etc? 10% puts us back around 1.26 and I am thinking 1.26 to 1.30 would make a material difference, whereas 1.36 for instance not so much


Honestly I think we are getting down to levels where the EUR has overshot what makes sense given the actual tools available to Draghi that are on the table for the June meeting. The negative deposit rate will probably only take overnight interbank rats back down to levels that were similar to where things were when the LTROs were going full steam. For the Euro to weaken much further than it already has they will probably need to enact a QE program. So theres two things im looking at:

June 3rd CPI- if the recent fall in the EUR was enough to get CPI on a path higher that will help the EUR significantly.

ECB Meeting- If Draghi enacts a set of policy changes, namely rate cuts, discontinuing SMP sterilization, funding for lending style LTRO and an extension of fixed rate full allotment that will simply validate the recent decline in the Euro we have already seen. To get us on the road to 1.30 he will need to hint at QE, which probably wont happen yet.

The closer we get to 1.3500 the more I feel like this leg of EUR weakness has runs its course. That doesnt mean EURUSD cant go lower due to USD factors. I am very big Dollar bull based on the idea that over the next 6 weeks there will be a massive repricing of the rate hike schedule. I am betting these factors will take over as the driver of EURUSD in the 2nd half of 2014. However, the more EUR declines prior to the ECB meeting, the more I feel safer expressing my USD bullish view against EM currencies and AUD. There is more value in selling those currencies at this point.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
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