Still have 2.07 longs. waiting for 2.15
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #161
- May 20, 2014 7:15am May 20, 2014 7:15am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
- #162
- May 20, 2014 7:21am May 20, 2014 7:21am
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts
{quote} I hope to be there with you....via a bit of two way plundering ....
I want to see how things are after fed minutes and turkey central bank. should know relatively soon if 2.15/2.16 is possible
Twitter: @TrendersGame
- #164
- May 20, 2014 7:22am May 20, 2014 7:22am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Excellent work everyone. I'm working on getting short at the moment. The market will likely take the stops out above this last drive up. Then it'll go back to < 2.1 as we approach Thursday. I'd be surprised to see this driven up much more when the market is trading blindly. My short target will be 2.0950. I'm looking for a pin bar that touches 2.115. Patience.
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #166
- May 20, 2014 8:10am May 20, 2014 8:10am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Informed | 1,641 Posts
{quote} That would be nice, but the last two US sessions have failed to break above the European morning's highs.....TWT
- #167
- May 20, 2014 8:10am May 20, 2014 8:10am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #168
- May 20, 2014 8:41am May 20, 2014 8:41am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #170
- May 20, 2014 10:13am May 20, 2014 10:13am
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts
Twitter: @TrendersGame
- #171
- May 20, 2014 11:05am May 20, 2014 11:05am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
{quote} Thank you, Sir. Looks like they might touch 2.115 on my chart afterall. TWT.
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #172
- Edited 11:23am May 20, 2014 11:08am | Edited 11:23am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Informed | 1,641 Posts
- #174
- May 21, 2014 2:38am May 21, 2014 2:38am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #175
- Edited 3:13pm May 21, 2014 11:39am | Edited 3:13pm
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Informed | 1,641 Posts
We've made it back down to 2.10 within the past couple of hours. It's a waiting game now, trading up until the rate decision would be ill advised.
As everyone has noticed I often think, rethink and then rethink again my view of the market. I suppose this is how it should be, we are always getting new information and price itself has a way of giving a feel to information and sentiment.
See the monthly chart of the Dollar/Lira below. As you can see, the recent recovery of the Lira has really been a mild one. Those in Turkey who are in charge of monetary policy have made it their job the last couple years to reinvent the wheel as it were. They were under the impression that they could be "clever" and so followed unpredictable-unorthodox monetary policies. Investors don't like this sort of "It's my toy, leave me alone to play with it" sort of mentality. When policy makers do this, investors don't just leave a market they punish it, even if the policy makers have good intentions and thats exactly what we've seen in the Lira.
If Turkey cuts rates tomorrow it will truly be foolish. If it happens we'll see a freefall. For the Lira to realize a true recovery, rates will need to remain where they are through at least the end of the year. In addition to this, the market will need to see consistent strong statements from the central bank leadership that they intend to heal the damage that's been done to the Lira because of their unusual policies and artificially low rates. They got themselves into the mess they are in and digging out will not be pleasant, but is however necessary. A high interest rate and a central bank the market can have confidence in is the only road that will lead back to FX rates seen a few years ago. The political situation is truly troubling and stirs an unhealthy amount of uncertainty into the market. I hope the Turkish people can put someone new in office come August. Someone who values freedom before his own ego and personal pride. Someone who won't jail his journalists because they call him out. I'll withhold another rant here, but people need freedom to thrive, and Turkey is being let down the opposite path politically.
All that said, if Turkey holds rates tomorrow without gumming up the works with lots of statements about cutting them soon, we'll see 2.0. If we get these silly contradictory statements we'll still see appreciation but it will be slow going. My prediction in that case is that we'll touch 2.05 and then stall out again.
I've highlighted 1.75 below, the market spent years around this level and in my humble estimation is where this thing ought to go. We'll see.
As everyone has noticed I often think, rethink and then rethink again my view of the market. I suppose this is how it should be, we are always getting new information and price itself has a way of giving a feel to information and sentiment.
See the monthly chart of the Dollar/Lira below. As you can see, the recent recovery of the Lira has really been a mild one. Those in Turkey who are in charge of monetary policy have made it their job the last couple years to reinvent the wheel as it were. They were under the impression that they could be "clever" and so followed unpredictable-unorthodox monetary policies. Investors don't like this sort of "It's my toy, leave me alone to play with it" sort of mentality. When policy makers do this, investors don't just leave a market they punish it, even if the policy makers have good intentions and thats exactly what we've seen in the Lira.
If Turkey cuts rates tomorrow it will truly be foolish. If it happens we'll see a freefall. For the Lira to realize a true recovery, rates will need to remain where they are through at least the end of the year. In addition to this, the market will need to see consistent strong statements from the central bank leadership that they intend to heal the damage that's been done to the Lira because of their unusual policies and artificially low rates. They got themselves into the mess they are in and digging out will not be pleasant, but is however necessary. A high interest rate and a central bank the market can have confidence in is the only road that will lead back to FX rates seen a few years ago. The political situation is truly troubling and stirs an unhealthy amount of uncertainty into the market. I hope the Turkish people can put someone new in office come August. Someone who values freedom before his own ego and personal pride. Someone who won't jail his journalists because they call him out. I'll withhold another rant here, but people need freedom to thrive, and Turkey is being let down the opposite path politically.
All that said, if Turkey holds rates tomorrow without gumming up the works with lots of statements about cutting them soon, we'll see 2.0. If we get these silly contradictory statements we'll still see appreciation but it will be slow going. My prediction in that case is that we'll touch 2.05 and then stall out again.
I've highlighted 1.75 below, the market spent years around this level and in my humble estimation is where this thing ought to go. We'll see.
- #177
- May 22, 2014 2:45am May 22, 2014 2:45am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #180
- May 22, 2014 4:04am May 22, 2014 4:04am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs