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idea for a statistical strategy

  • #21
  • May 19, 2014 6:22pm May 19, 2014 6:22pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} 1/ If you have a profitable strategy, there's no reason to change anything 2/ If you have losing strategy, NOTHING will change that ... no matter the maths you will put in.
1- i have a strategy :it's all my expertise in all branches of analysis >>>> and i mention that psychology at certain time may have a negative effect

2- that's what 95% think


i wish that instead you have write this you may have post any simple ( bad ) strategy as i request

instead of arguing me
  • #22
  • May 20, 2014 6:05am May 20, 2014 6:05am
I think here is nothing more than practice. The more you practice you will learn how to create your strategy. So you need to practice with demo account. Read signals and being active in forums you will understand automatically that what you need to do and how you will create your own strategy and how you will analysis a pair in the mean time in forex.
  • #23
  • May 20, 2014 8:09am May 20, 2014 8:09am
Quoting zelenko
hello every one as it known statistically if you enter 100 random trades ( without any analysis) and your target was 50 pip and the stop was 50 pip nearly the wining trades will be 50% of all trades ( 100 trades ) so if we make the trades with target 100 to stop 50 the result will be 33% wining trades now what i want i want a strategy that i will make an expert for it this strategy have the following characteristics : 1- pre defined target 2- pre defined stop 3- target to stop = 2:1 4- win rate of the trades more than 25% ( mean every 3 loosing...
Idk whats the hype with the random trades lately, seems like more and more people like putting trades at random.

Sadly though it wont give you any edge, deal with it.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #24
  • May 20, 2014 9:37am May 20, 2014 9:37am
It's not so easy. If one threw a dart at dart board with pairs written on them to choose a trade, then threw another dart to go long or short there is no way 33% Will be win percentage. Considering each pairs Average true range and its position within that range at any given moment I don't see this working. There are many pairs at this very moment I have difficult time finding 2:1 reward risk within my margin tolerance and time frame with effort!

prob not happening...
  • #25
  • May 20, 2014 10:26am May 20, 2014 10:26am
Quoting aktrader
It's not so easy. If one threw a dart at dart board with pairs written on them to choose a trade, then threw another dart to go long or short there is no way 33% Will be win percentage.
You would be very surprised if you did the experiment for a long enough sequence of trades.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #26
  • May 20, 2014 11:11am May 20, 2014 11:11am
So maybe our problem is we are trying too hard or even just trying?
  • #27
  • May 20, 2014 5:07pm May 20, 2014 5:07pm
Quoting aktrader
So maybe our problem is we are trying too hard or even just trying?
You can try but try elsewhere, random poking is not an edge

This system is good to test to have fun or just for education, but you wont make a dime out of it.Trading like this is gambling not trading,
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #28
  • May 21, 2014 8:01am May 21, 2014 8:01am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} You would be very surprised if you did the experiment for a long enough sequence of trades.
that's what i mean so i request a system that give a signal every day to get large numbers of trades that will assure the percentage of 33%

but unfortunately up to now in this thread

there is about 15 post just for arguing

and about 2 or 3 posts only talking about the main purpose of this thread
  • #29
  • May 21, 2014 12:18pm May 21, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting zelenko
day after day i'm seeing why 95% of people lose because of such thinking and never go out the box
No offense, but this line of thinking is about as "in the box" as you get.

There have been hedge funds comprised of solely PhD mathematicians that have gone bankrupt. Plenty of people much more brilliant than you and I have tried to out think everyone else and failed. Actually, I haven't met any time-tested trader who doesn't stick with the boring old basics.

Out of all the people who have ever traded, you are not the first to come up with an idea such as this one. Dig through FF.

If you are still interested in pursuing your idea, there is no reason you couldn't backtest it. That will give you all the data you need to determine whether or not your statistical game has any merit.
I'm a dog chasing cars.
  • #30
  • May 21, 2014 1:14pm May 21, 2014 1:14pm
ok every one forget all what i said

consider i am crazy , looser , thief what ever

but i want from every one of you a small favor that will cost you 2 to 3 minute

let's stop talking and arguing

i want every one to write in a post a serial of 50-100 trades in a form of (( x )) an (( o ))

where x mean a loosing trade and o mean a wining trade

don't forget to consider that the Target is twice the stop

i will give an example of what i want you to write

((( LET'S i am not a GOOD TRADER AND MY TRADES TARGET TO STOP IS 2:1 HERE IS MY TRADES HISTORY

X
O
X
X
O
X
X
X
O
X
X
O
X
O
O
X
X
X
X
O
X
X
O
X
X
O
X
X
X
X
O
X
O
X
X
O
X
O
X
X
X
O
X
X
X
O
X
O
X
X
X
X
O
X
X
O
X
X
X
O
X
X
X
O

44 LOOSING
20 WINING

THAT'S AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT I WANT

AND I WANT YOU TO POST A BAD SCENARIOS THAT MAY HAPPEN TO EVERY ONE OF YOU
  • #31
  • May 21, 2014 1:53pm May 21, 2014 1:53pm
Blah ...


I thought this was going to be useful
  • #32
  • May 21, 2014 2:25pm May 21, 2014 2:25pm
If you are going to make a random-based idea, I think it would be better to at least have some statistical-info, which of course it wouldnt be random anymore, however if the sysytem is only based on pure numbesr, rather than data entries, you could at least know that based on statistics, the system you have based on pure numbers, "stastically", will give you profits, however past results doesn't mean it will give you good results. And this is the problem, because the statistics could have been based by random factors, and not by true data, indicators, causes that would let you decide that it will hapen again and not just random.

Also, if you are generating profits, you could say that the system would be successful, but the question now would be: Was that just another random result based by non-event and non-data statistics? Which in other words is "luck".
  • #33
  • Aug 10, 2014 7:21am Aug 10, 2014 7:21am
Quoting zelenko
ok every one forget all what i said consider i am crazy , looser , thief what ever but i want from every one of you a small favor that will cost you 2 to 3 minute let's stop talking and arguing i want every one to write in a post a serial of 50-100 trades in a form of (( x )) an (( o )) where x mean a loosing trade and o mean a wining trade don't forget to consider that the Target is twice the stop i will give an example of what i want you to write ((( LET'S i am not a GOOD TRADER AND MY TRADES TARGET TO STOP IS 2:1 HERE IS MY TRADES HISTORY X O...
Although the purpose of this thread is not clear to me,
Applying 2:1 RR to your trades scenario will lead to negative output (20x2 - 44x1 = -4 ).
This is without considering the Compounding Effect of course.
So where is the catch ?

P.S. I just noticed that this thread is been inactive since May, sorry.
No guts, no glory
  • #34
  • Last Post: Feb 8, 2018 3:45am Feb 8, 2018 3:45am
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} Although the purpose of this thread is not clear to me, Applying 2:1 RR to your trades scenario will lead to negative output (20x2 - 44x1 = -4 ). This is without considering the Compounding Effect of course. So where is the catch ? P.S. I just noticed that this thread is been inactive since May, sorry.
the catch is in money management
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