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idea for a statistical strategy

  • #1
  • First Post: May 15, 2014 1:47am May 15, 2014 1:47am
hello every one

as it known statistically if you enter 100 random trades ( without any analysis) and your target was 50 pip and the stop was 50 pip

nearly the wining trades will be 50% of all trades ( 100 trades )

so if we make the trades with target 100 to stop 50 the result will be 33% wining trades


now what i want

i want a strategy that i will make an expert for it

this strategy have the following characteristics :

1- pre defined target
2- pre defined stop
3- target to stop = 2:1
4- win rate of the trades more than 25% ( mean every 3 loosing trades have 1 wining )
5- to give big numbers of trades ( 1-2 trades daily or 5-15 trades weekly )

does any one know or have such a strategy
waiting for your ideas
  • #2
  • May 15, 2014 1:49am May 15, 2014 1:49am
Look like you are looking for the holy grail ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #3
  • May 15, 2014 10:37am May 15, 2014 10:37am
why do you say that ????????????????????????????????????????????????

statistically if we enter the trades randomly without any analysis
let's say we will take trades according to coin toss

if we make 100 trades we will find nearly 33% was wining ( target : stop = 2:1 ) >>>> give 2 losing trades and 1 wining

that's without any effort from me without any analysis


what i am demanding is less than this

i want 25% win rate >>>> 3 losing and 1 wining

how could this be difficult ????
  • #4
  • May 15, 2014 10:44am May 15, 2014 10:44am
Quoting zelenko
why do you say that ???????????????????????????????????????????????? statistically if we enter the trades randomly without any analysis let's say we will take trades according to coin toss if we make 100 trades we will find nearly 33% was wining ( target : stop = 2:1 ) >>>> give 2 losing trades and 1 wining that's without any effort from me without any analysis what i am demanding is less than this i want 25% win rate >>>> 3 losing and 1 wining how could this be difficult ????
Yes I missed the 25% ...

So what would be the purpose of finding a system less profitable than your "statisticaly" BE random system ?
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #5
  • May 15, 2014 11:24am May 15, 2014 11:24am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} Yes I missed the 25% ... So what would be the purpose of finding a system less profitable than your "statisticaly" BE random system ?
Obviously you trade opposite this system and end up with 75% winners!
  • #6
  • May 15, 2014 1:38pm May 15, 2014 1:38pm
Quoting AlanB
{quote} Obviously you trade opposite this system and end up with 75% winners!
Oh cool! That's at least a full month we didn't have a "let's reverse a loser" kind of thread....yippee
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #7
  • May 15, 2014 3:14pm May 15, 2014 3:14pm
Why would you want a strategy that will lose you money?
  • #8
  • May 15, 2014 5:34pm May 15, 2014 5:34pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} Yes I missed the 25% ... So what would be the purpose of finding a system less profitable than your "statisticaly" BE random system ?
i am trying an experiment that if succeeded will turn the fx market upside down
  • #9
  • May 15, 2014 5:35pm May 15, 2014 5:35pm
Quoting AlanB
{quote} Obviously you trade opposite this system and end up with 75% winners!
definitely that is not true and this is not my purpose
  • #10
  • May 15, 2014 5:38pm May 15, 2014 5:38pm
it must not be accurate strategy or complex

let's say open buy at the day open with target 100 and stop 50


i want a very simple (( fool )) strategy

sure if any one have a better strategy that would be good

but the experiment will proof it's strength if it succeed with a bad strategy
  • #11
  • May 15, 2014 6:03pm May 15, 2014 6:03pm
Quoting zelenko
why do you say that ???????????????????????????????????????????????? statistically if we enter the trades randomly without any analysis let's say we will take trades according to coin toss if we make 100 trades we will find nearly 33% was wining ( target : stop = 2:1 ) >>>> give 2 losing trades and 1 wining that's without any effort from me without any analysis what i am demanding is less than this i want 25% win rate >>>> 3 losing and 1 wining how could this be difficult ????
the market isn't random, people move the market. In your randomness if you manage to be on the right side of it you'll be ok for a time but like ferrufx says Holy Grail time
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #12
  • May 15, 2014 6:07pm May 15, 2014 6:07pm
zelenko,

To get a profit/loss ratio (25%) you need to extract some information from market, which give you statistical advantage, and, of course, to use this information. Therefore, opening OR/AND closing of your position need to be NOT random.
  • #13
  • May 15, 2014 6:45pm May 15, 2014 6:45pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Oh cool! That's at least a full month we didn't have a "let's reverse a loser" kind of thread....yippee
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #14
  • May 15, 2014 7:23pm May 15, 2014 7:23pm
If you're looking to improve on a random entry & use your money management (2:1), pick any indicator & enter only in the direction of the indicator.
Examples: (pick just one to keep is simple)
-Above 50 ema, buy only.
-Stoch rising, buy only.
-20 ema above 50 ema, buy only
-MACD above "0", buy only
-Price above "daily open", buy only
***Sell only when indis opposite.

There's a thousand more simple methods you could use to improve a random entry & still keep it simple. None of them are near perfect but still better than random.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusddaily.png Size: 41 KB
  • #15
  • May 16, 2014 3:09am May 16, 2014 3:09am
Quoting billytt
{quote} the market isn't random, people move the market. In your randomness if you manage to be on the right side of it you'll be ok for a time but like ferrufx says Holy Grail time
Quantum random generator isn't random either, photon particles give the numbers! Or thermal noise!

Now we know what some quantum random generators are based on photons, can we predict the results?
  • #16
  • May 16, 2014 3:30am May 16, 2014 3:30am
Quoting mikkom
{quote} Quantum random generator isn't random either, photon particles give the numbers! Or thermal noise! Now we know what some quantum random generators are based on photons, can we predict the results?

anything mechanical has a bias,
The thread starter only need realise that once he has a data base of statistics/odds his trading will become easier OR being on the right side with the flow, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #17
  • May 18, 2014 11:23pm May 18, 2014 11:23pm
Quoting srt
If you're looking to improve on a random entry & use your money management (2:1), pick any indicator & enter only in the direction of the indicator. Examples: (pick just one to keep is simple) -Above 50 ema, buy only. -Stoch rising, buy only. -20 ema above 50 ema, buy only -MACD above "0", buy only -Price above "daily open", buy only ***Sell only when indis opposite. There's a thousand more simple methods you could use to improve a random entry & still keep it simple. None of them are near perfect but still better than random. {image}
and what will be the target and stop for all this ????
  • #18
  • May 19, 2014 4:05am May 19, 2014 4:05am
Quoting zelenko
hello every one as it known statistically if you enter 100 random trades ( without any analysis) and your target was 50 pip and the stop was 50 pip nearly the wining trades will be 50% of all trades ( 100 trades ) so if we make the trades with target 100 to stop 50 the result will be 33% wining trades now what i want i want a strategy that i will make an expert for it this strategy have the following characteristics : 1- pre defined target 2- pre defined stop 3- target to stop = 2:1 4- win rate of the trades more than 25% ( mean every 3 loosing...

forget all this mambo jumbo stuff.. learn how to trade or choose another profession, there is no damn short cut to this.. if it was everyone would be doing it and everyone was a gisillionaire.

Your coin toss thing.. to say the least over a long haul you could at one point end up with 10+ losses.. or your trade could be a winner for only +95 pips and back to hitting your stop.. for the coin toss that is a winner and for you a loser.. market is to vast to put a cap on it.
so after all you still would need a much sounder MM with trader discretion.. if this was not the case all the major ballers with more cash and brain than perhaps someone like you, would have already made a holy EA of such.

just trying to light a bulb for you and ff-ers, no mean to offend.

anyhow I own a 200 year old coin if your interested to buy.. for extra luck lol
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #19
  • May 19, 2014 9:25am May 19, 2014 9:25am
day after day i'm seeing why 95% of people lose

because of such thinking and never go out the box

watch this video

Inserted Video



and

read this thread

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=404151

this was from a year ago and the invention in this thread become more powerful than it was a year ago

and i have been trading manually all this time

but when you grow big the psychology have a negative effect

so i think of building an expert

and as we know 99 % of experts fail but this in normal condition

but when adding my money management it may defer

so why i write this thread

to get a defined strategy and turn it to expert

if

1- it was a good then i will win a lot faster
2- it was bad : i will win but also i will be the inventor of forex holy grail

and last thing i am not making this thread to sell anything

because i know that a lot of people (( i call them xx people )) will start to attack the thread


n.b. : the (xx people ) is a person that use his efforts to attack , depress , annoy .......etc other people
and if he use his efforts positively he will benefit and other people will
  • #20
  • May 19, 2014 9:40am May 19, 2014 9:40am
Quoting zelenko
1- it was a good then i will win a lot faster
2- it was bad : i will win but also i will be the inventor of forex holy grail
1/ If you have a profitable strategy, there's no reason to change anything

2/ If you have losing strategy, NOTHING will change that ... no matter the maths you will put in.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
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