The market is making pin bar as I type (carving out the pre-news range), This thing really wants to touch the 50% retrace of the long mechanical looking downward swing. I think the top end of the range will be 2.11 just above that 50% level with the lower end being just below 2.09-- the market will likely sweep the stops down there. So if I had conviction about direction, I'd try getting short when the market sweeps the stops of those who sell the first touch of that 50% level, and I'd get long when we get back down just below 2.0930. Just throwing that out there. London is now gearing up and spreads are narrowing down to reasonable levels.
- #123
- Edited 3:54am May 16, 2014 3:08am | Edited 3:54am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #124
- May 16, 2014 4:00am May 16, 2014 4:00am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Informed | 1,641 Posts
{quote} Agreed - this fits in well with my technical view....this 4hr has just closed as a pin / doji with low volumes as its pre LO. In extension the 61% retrace if also a possibility IF another rally goes exponential....that's only 200 pips higher....TWT {image}
You mention the term "exponential." I have for curiosities sake done some research on how the market reacts to non-linear exponential lines and have found some interesting results. I've searched FF on a few occasions for this sort of thing and don't turn much up on this. It's not rocket science, it stuff we learned back in middle school--quadratic, cubed, square root graphs, but the price oddly follows some of these curves, especially parabolas with rational decimal coefficients i.e. .00001X^2... I have come to the conclusion that these graphs could be very helpful in profit taking during a trend. If one were using an exponential curve to time profit taking verses a straight line, the curve gives more pips and times the trade better. I'll shut up for now as I'm getting ahead of myself but I'll maybe add this into the mix in the near future. Here is what I'm talking about though:
This is an older USDTRY hourly chart done in Excel. Sorry the lines are somewhat faint.
- #126
- May 16, 2014 5:47am May 16, 2014 5:47am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #127
- May 16, 2014 5:49am May 16, 2014 5:49am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
I've seen uglier charts...not paid much attention to TRY but its quite smooth on a 10R setting. {image}
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #131
- May 19, 2014 12:17am May 19, 2014 12:17am
I hope everyone had a good weekend. As we move into this rate announcement week, I get the sense that we could see more upside before the 22nd rolls around. My target will be 2.1350. It would make no sense to head much higher than that in the case we don't see a rate cut, but if you're already sitting in profits then you definitely want to liquidate at the current pricing. If the timing works out where spreads are tight, I'll look to get in @ 2.0875 down where the stops are. This has already been oversold, its impossible to know exactly what will...
Hi,Scotty
I got the chart above from CBRT,
it shows the frequecy of monetary policy statistics is 'weekly',
so shall we get the interest rate decision from CBRT every week?
I am a new trader on this pair,thanks.
no other killers to me but emotion
- #134
- May 19, 2014 1:24am May 19, 2014 1:24am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #137
- May 19, 2014 1:55am May 19, 2014 1:55am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Informed | 1,641 Posts
Went ahead and pulled the trigger when the spread dropped to 6.5. I think the London guys will take this to that 38 fib level, I hate DD but a few pips won't kill me. We'll see what they want to do with it. Hopefully we'll see 2.13 soon.
- #140
- May 19, 2014 2:07am May 19, 2014 2:07am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs