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EURUSD

  • #898,901
  • May 18, 2014 2:47pm May 18, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Ah, see what happens when you read the official sources ? Nothing is there ... Thank you
as a matter of fact he said he was seriously concerned about the exchange rate valuation. however, he didn't cut the rates and stressed on the fact that the exchange rate is not in his mandate. i am sure next time he will start some form of QE but won't cut the rates and if he did, it would be euro positive anyway
  • #898,902
  • May 18, 2014 2:50pm May 18, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} as a matter of fact he said he was seriously concerned about the exchange rate valuation. however, he didn't cut the rates and stressed on the fact that the exchange rate is not in his mandate. i am sure next time he will start some form of QE but won't cut the rates and if he did, it would be euro positive anyway
As a matter of fact, Two weeks ago, you advised me " not to read these statements".... what happens now, you became an expert on ECB decisions?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #898,903
  • Edited 3:02pm May 18, 2014 2:51pm | Edited 3:02pm
I'm not a funny demential guy, but JMO, there is an obstacle for a rate cate in june. The new EU commission will not be yet in place, the ECB will create an institutional crisis if it does so. Unless the next week poll send a clear majority which favor a lower euro.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #898,904
  • Edited 3:12pm May 18, 2014 2:59pm | Edited 3:12pm
EURUSD

Technical: I expect 1.35 as strong support including 1.3475 (Yearly pivot) which was my previous technical forecast, the reasons behind are too many bearish signs including the Wash and rinse of the previous top, butterfly sell from Monthly R1 with 1.27 extension of swing before last and, also the strength of the move which imo can't be ignored.

The market has now reached oversold on Daily + Fib support + hammer and bounce up is very logical from the market mechanics standpoint.
Weekly R1 will show us probably how intact the bearish move is, we have two patterns that could provide us with direction for the next sessions, butterfly buy 1 hour chart and H&S on the same time frame. Last level I want to consider for upward move/trade is 1.3680, minimum target 1.3780.

Fundamental:
2 possible scenarios out of many I am sure.
EURUSD prices in promises from ECB and continues further down until the next meeting, if nothing happens then we come back up.
or
This was trend reversal (will be confirmed if price takes out 1.3475 lows) and from now on we will get into sell mode with ECB doing all they can to devalue the currency.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #898,905
  • May 18, 2014 3:03pm May 18, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} As a matter of fact, Two weeks ago, you advised me " not to read these statements".... what happens now, you became an expert on ECB decisions?!
you're wrong as I never give advices...anything Draghi said for me has little substance...he can play this trick over and over if it works for him and it did work. Only evidence is that he didn't cut rates or started QE. What he said was sufficient to scare markets for 1.4 threshold. However, all his strategy is based on US recovery. If they do well EU will follow. Trade balance in Italy picked up considerably last week, that means that exchange rate didn't affect exports.
  • #898,906
  • May 18, 2014 3:09pm May 18, 2014 3:09pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Pound is in a very good position to short (If you did off MR1) however you might have to be patient. 1.618 ext daily + divergence daily and off Monthly R1 I wouldn't marry any position though.
Butterfly on Daily has reached it's target and now price bounces off 50% + Monthly pivot Daily chart and could reach Fib Resistance at 1.6895, this becomes more logical if you consider that price reached oversold on Daily chart and formed ABCD 4 hours plus a pennant. I will provide charts if anyone needs them.

Cheers.
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #898,907
  • May 18, 2014 3:23pm May 18, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} {quote} You wrote this ... ?! Yes, No?! Perhaps sleep walking ?! That day, i was talking to you while quoting the ECB official statement. You reply was to go to the FT to read something overthere. BTW, i do not give a fuck about your opinions- you are like a headless chicken, a day you think this , tomorrow you think the opposite
I was talking about the OECD. However, in general I consider statements only if there is any factual evidence confirming them. OECD for me is a report not a statement. Everything they want to say is written and published. In their statements, they tried to give some advice to Draghi which is why I think he said I feel more comfortable next time. OECD suggested a rate cut. I don't think he will touch the rate but certainly will start some form of QE. This will prop up EURUSD in my view.
  • #898,908
  • May 18, 2014 3:30pm May 18, 2014 3:30pm
The fact is that Super mario is a market mover and his statement caused EUR to tank. Nothing else caused that. All the charts in the world prior to his speech would of suggested that EUR would of dropped as it did. With that said, once Mario makes a statement to do QE, or anything of that sort EUR/USD will pop up, as the price has already factored in that possibility of that.
Keep your Pip-drawdown low. That is the key to using high equity + high lev
  • #898,909
  • May 18, 2014 3:34pm May 18, 2014 3:34pm
Sounds like you guys are solely focused on eurho only. The usd economy is a dump still and despite any economic up turn now the usd cant sustain higher valued currency anyway! Two sides of the table boys
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #898,910
  • May 18, 2014 3:36pm May 18, 2014 3:36pm
Quoting Rtm
Sounds like you guys are solely focused on eurho only. The usd economy is a dump still and despite any economic up turn now the usd cant sustain higher valued currency anyway! Two sides of the table boys
You're correct about that, but why do people fail to understand that current events, especially from market movers is what drives the market....
Keep your Pip-drawdown low. That is the key to using high equity + high lev
  • #898,911
  • May 18, 2014 3:45pm May 18, 2014 3:45pm
Quoting Rtm
Sounds like you guys are solely focused on eurho only. The usd economy is a dump still and despite any economic up turn now the usd cant sustain higher valued currency anyway! Two sides of the table boys
I have been saying that over and over. That is the only reason why I am bullish...US can't afford a low EURUSD, while tapering is coming to an end.
  • #898,912
  • May 18, 2014 4:00pm May 18, 2014 4:00pm
Buying a bottom(USD) will rob you time as it can come as very long and tiring as youmwait for market to try and reverse. So unless you are master of patience and have deep pockets it is simply best just to catch swings of trend.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #898,913
  • May 18, 2014 4:08pm May 18, 2014 4:08pm
Quoting Rtm
Buying a bottom(USD) will rob you time as it can come as very long and tiring as youmwait for market to try and reverse. So unless you are master of patience and have deep pockets it is simply best just to catch swings of trend.
my idea of potential bottom here is 13580...risk management and patience
  • #898,914
  • May 18, 2014 4:08pm May 18, 2014 4:08pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I have been saying that over and over. That is the only reason why I am bullish...US can't afford a low EURUSD, while tapering is coming to an end.
I think the dumbest thing anyone coukd try and do right now would be sell on new lows of eurusd a. You are trying to trade a correction in trend-moves are never very big and not worth while usually b. There is no real fundamentals to back it up-ECB undecided, usd has gone so far down that it lost its title of safe haven currency.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #898,915
  • May 18, 2014 4:10pm May 18, 2014 4:10pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} my idea of potential bottom here is 13580...risk management and patience
I have the exact same area as my next spot where I would buy it should we get an opportunity there
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #898,916
  • May 18, 2014 4:14pm May 18, 2014 4:14pm
Just reading some newspapers, that some northern euro parties want to get out of the euro.
What will hapen to e/u if holland,germany etc would leave euro and start new currency?
0.1? france,spain,italy,greece are more or less bankrupt and totally worthless as an econmy.

European economy only survives because of germany, and they only exist because of the car industry, wich is going down.
hmm. fundi id say bearish for a long long time.

But who am i? ill try to make some money if it goes up or down.
  • #898,917
  • May 18, 2014 4:14pm May 18, 2014 4:14pm
Everyone ready for another 120 hours of war?

Oh, I had to give up my extremely profitable carry trades in UT and ET last week due to a sudden turn the wrong way.
I was out with a profit and I'm trying to get in again this week with fresh shorts.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #898,918
  • May 18, 2014 4:35pm May 18, 2014 4:35pm
wow! i leave for a little and the self proclaimed euro expert is calling others experts. maybe i misinterpret the use of the implied statement that the rise in the euro is making it hard for greece and others to cope. not a quote.. the rising value of the euro as a possible threat to the region’s economic recovery..
i kinda take he hotel thing a little personal, i hope it wasnt meant that way
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #898,919
  • May 18, 2014 5:02pm May 18, 2014 5:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
wow! i leave for a little and the self proclaimed euro expert is calling others experts. maybe i misinterpret the use of the implied statement that the rise in the euro is making it hard for greece and others to cope. not a quote.. the rising value of the euro as a possible threat to the region’s economic recovery.. i kinda take he hotel thing a little personal, i hope it wasnt meant that way
most of the export market for Greece is actually in Eurozone and UK, so a high exchange rate shouldn't be too much of an issue. France wanted EURUSD down but that's all. However, a lower exchange rate won't bring down the price of French wine...of that I am sure.
  • #898,920
  • Edited 5:33pm May 18, 2014 5:16pm | Edited 5:33pm
The Euro's 6% appreciation is not caused by speculators, but by a) FED QE b) Eurozone economic outlook. Despite the vague correlation between currencies and inflation, deflation usually makes a country's currency stronger (in our case, lower inflation of EU zone than US. That on top of FED QE). From what I've seen so far, President Draghi is not a fan of currency manipulation and in all his interviews the value of the Euro was regarded just as any variable of the main problem: economic stability and growth, until the last press conference when this variable gained some importance, but again, related to perspective economic growth.

As long as neither a) and/or b) changes price movements caused by his warnings are to be short lived. He knows that. Everybody knows that. Those kind of speeches are just to delay further appreciation, but a few words can't eventually stop the barometer of a country (its currency) to reflect the actual situation of that country.
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