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  • #898,801
  • May 17, 2014 7:40am May 17, 2014 7:40am
Quoting Greener
{quote} yeah definitely...we just need to see if we broke that channel....many are still trying to catch a reversal for 1.40...so imho first thing will happen next week is stop hunting potentially down to 1364ish...below that level channel is broken and wedge formation confirmed...however, I still believe we haven't seen the very top as I think US needs a high exchange rate...not to mention the inverted head and shoulder
We will see whats gona happen on that level this week.
  • #898,802
  • May 17, 2014 8:44am May 17, 2014 8:44am
Quoting BogiFX
Could this be a Rising Wedge?Please dont kill me if i'm wrong {image}
Drop your indicators and come out with your hands up.
  • #898,803
  • May 17, 2014 8:57am May 17, 2014 8:57am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Drop your indicators and come out with your hands up.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #898,804
  • May 17, 2014 9:16am May 17, 2014 9:16am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} I completely understand what you have been saying. it was you who took my words out of its content. and now you cannot back up you own analysis through my questions.
I didn't take your words out of context...

I asked a couple simple questions on your idea of markets, movements and candles as confirmation on different time frames...you have the inability to answer them as well as have yet to provide a single example of where you are correct and for that matter, where I am mistaken in the information I've presented.

My analysis is the same as many others...

We are selling into a supported area...this is one of those places that will show others selling bottoms, or possibly standing in front of a speeding train as price breaks through support.

Because of the time frames I trade, I don't have these issues. I wait for a signal, I push a button. If I am right, I have an idea as to where I will take profit and wait, or if I am wrong, will know where to cut my losses and wait for the next possible set up.

Funny how often we see people coming along ripping on senior members but cannot back up their own ideas. With you, it is even more amusing because of the amount of begging you are doing for some simple recognition...

Little lesson for ya here, Ace.

If you post anything that resembles solid fundamental or technical knowledge, you won't have to Beg for Subscribers, they will follow you...

You just have to get your house sorted, before you should even think about inviting company.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #898,805
  • May 17, 2014 9:22am May 17, 2014 9:22am
Quoting Magix
{quote} I didn't take your words out of context... I asked a couple simple questions on your idea of markets, movements and candles as confirmation on different time frames...you have the inability to answer them as well as have yet to provide a single example of where you are correct and for that matter, where I am mistaken in the information I've presented. My analysis is the same as many others... We are selling into a supported area...this is one of those places that will show others selling bottoms, or possibly standing in front of a speeding...
I think we're possibly both right on this. I had been talking with some others about the "support" area and you can actually see some important demand right where it turned. There are potential signs that there are some longs being loaded up here. That said, I don't think they'll be long lived and that we'll have a short opportunity not far above in the 1.3750 area, which is going to be at least some long traders' targets in the short term.
  • #898,806
  • May 17, 2014 9:48am May 17, 2014 9:48am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I think we're possibly both right on this. I had been talking with some others about the "support" area and you can actually see some important demand right where it turned. There are potential signs that there are some longs being loaded up here. That said, I don't think they'll be long lived and that we'll have a short opportunity not far above in the 1.3750 area, which is going to be at least some long traders' targets in the short term.
I have to agree. I think you both are as well. My rather simplistic view, (I'll use the daily as it's Saturday and anything less is too much work for me ), A beautiful double top that sent us here, a double bottom and support found at the 61.8 and 200's with an obvious strong reaction up. A test of the 200sma (green) and bounce up (Although it has to be noted that Friday was a none existent day really) shows me that buyers are at least...interested.

This daily as I have it looks quite bearish to me and I think "overall" south is the way. That being said, the buyer interest, double bottom, fib and 200's tell me a pullback is certainly possible. As to how far? I have the 38.2 (3778ish) and the blue 50ema (3795ish) as max areas I'd look to short should it get there. Once short the target areas for me are the fibs below. A bounce/pause at the 76.4 and then continuation to a full 100% retrace with a remote possibility of an extension beyond that to the 800ema at 3416ish currently. Just my 2 cents.

EDIT: Of course all "static" views subject to change upon the resumption of "live" PA. But that's my overall picture as of now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #898,807
  • May 17, 2014 10:06am May 17, 2014 10:06am
Well we're looking at different things, but here are a couple of the reasons I'm feeling that the bearish scenario might have started already. This is far from all of my analysis (I strip most off before I upload), but these two red circled lows were significant areas to breach for bears. The green circled area is demand that was the origin of the latest upwards thrust. So a bounce with resumed downward movement is what I expect...doubt we'll reach anywhere near the high for some time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #898,808
  • Edited 10:39am May 17, 2014 10:26am | Edited 10:39am
Quoting Kanzler
Well we're looking at different things, but here are a couple of the reasons I'm feeling that the bearish scenario might have started already. This is far from all of my analysis (I strip most off before I upload), but these two red circled lows were significant areas to breach for bears. The green circled area is demand that was the origin of the latest upwards thrust. So a bounce with resumed downward movement is what I expect...doubt we'll reach anywhere near the high for some time. {image}
Would you like to hear a contrarian view?!.. well, i'm gonna say it anyway!

I have yet to see a currency pair reversing a top/bottom on a comment, an article of vague statements. As long as the comment is not a ' potential risk', price has to retrace all the way backwards one time or another. Having said that, if you open the Daily chart, mentally flip the chart- you would be buying on 27th of December ... based on the doji penetrated the supply, of previous ones!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #898,809
  • May 17, 2014 10:32am May 17, 2014 10:32am
Quoting Kanzler
Well we're looking at different things, but here are a couple of the reasons I'm feeling that the bearish scenario might have started already. This is far from all of my analysis (I strip most off before I upload), but these two red circled lows were significant areas to breach for bears. The green circled area is demand that was the origin of the latest upwards thrust. So a bounce with resumed downward movement is what I expect...doubt we'll reach anywhere near the high for some time. {image}
Not sure if you meant me here? But just in case. Maybe looking at different things but reaching the same conclusions. Only small difference is the pullback. You said not much more than 3750, I have maybe 3778ish with a possible MAX of 3795. So, not too far off. Of course live PA will tell if it gets anywhere close to that area at all. But anywhere up to that, yep looking for shorts.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #898,810
  • May 17, 2014 10:33am May 17, 2014 10:33am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Would you like to hear a contrarian view?!
Sure...always.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #898,811
  • May 17, 2014 10:34am May 17, 2014 10:34am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Drop your indicators and come out with your hands up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Hands-Up-l.jpg Size: 121 KB
  • #898,812
  • May 17, 2014 10:41am May 17, 2014 10:41am
monday in a perfect trading world:

up to 1.37
sell from there to 1.366
buy at 1.366 and ride this thing up some 50ish pips or whatever suits you
ignore stop hunts into the 30s while you're at it (30s? don't have charts open right now)

come out a champion
  • #898,813
  • May 17, 2014 10:41am May 17, 2014 10:41am
I personally think that a long term bullish scenario has just resumed in the eurusd and this is a long due correction for the bullish uptrend that topped at 16050 in 2008. Downtrend channel was broken first time in March 14 and then again in April and May. A correction like this without any fact to support it but only speculation on possibly misinterpreted words can only be technical. However this is only my opinion. I expect EURUSD to trade comfortably above 1.4 for a prolonged time soon.
  • #898,814
  • May 17, 2014 10:54am May 17, 2014 10:54am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Would you like to hear a contrarian view?!.. well, i'm gonna say it anyway! I have yet to see a currency pair reversing a top/bottom on a comment, an article of vague statements. As long as the comment is not a ' potential risk', price has to retrace all the way backwards one time or another. Having said that, if you open the Daily chart, mentally flip the chart- you would be buying on 27th of December ... based on the doji penetrated the supply, of previous ones!
Hey Vachus, always up for a contrarian view although I will be the first to admit I don't care for fundamentals based arguments. I'm sure this quote has been spammed over multiple times on this board but I thoroughly agree with it.

"When I got into the business, there was so little information on fundamentals, and what little information one could get was largely imperfect. We learned just to go with the chart. Why work when Mr. Market can do it for you?" - Paul Tudor Jones

Quoting albchr
{quote} Not sure if you meant me here? But just in case. Maybe looking at different things but reaching the same conclusions. Only small difference is the pullback. You said not much more than 3750, I have maybe 3778ish with a possible MAX of 3795. So, not too far off. Of course live PA will tell if it gets anywhere close to that area at all. But anywhere up to that, yep looking for shorts.
Yes my apologies, I was talking to you. I think that must be the case. The charts I have show quite a few areas that price could stop and reverse at, but the most obvious one to me would be violated below your max. I suppose there's the potential for some fakeouts...will have to take a closer look at this.
  • #898,815
  • May 17, 2014 10:56am May 17, 2014 10:56am
Quoting BogiFX
{quote} {image}
Hahaha, very cute. But in all seriousness, those things are just going to distract you, my advice is to get rid of 'em and focus on price bars instead. They tell you everything the indicators do, just a lot sooner. Won't push you any further on it.
  • #898,816
  • May 17, 2014 11:10am May 17, 2014 11:10am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Hehe... Seriously: thanks for that, reminded me I got those principles on my harddrive and haven't looked into them for more than a year. Great stuff!
from same post small quote
"The flagship fund uses the relatively rare combination of a fundamentally based systematic approach" 50billion profits made...biggest ever
Pretty much same approach I use.My directional bias is rooted on fundamentals and not on charts.System I use is capsulizing that bias.

If you have the book please read it.You'll find gold nuggets in there.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #898,817
  • May 17, 2014 11:15am May 17, 2014 11:15am
Quoting Vachus
$1.3700 - $1.36800 is the place where it should turn, beyond this - it will take more time and could slide more .. * if price doesn't turn there, i have no idea where it will turn back up
Quoting Vachus
I will speculate $1.3640 is the final target for this bear trend to finally ends! if i was correct - price will touch there for few minutes and bounce back up almost same day ...
In any case, just an update:

All things equal, the Bears party has two days left- three by a stretch. Limit to the downside, should be $1.364 - $1.373 then IT IS OVER.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #898,818
  • May 17, 2014 11:18am May 17, 2014 11:18am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Hahaha, very cute. But in all seriousness, those things are just going to distract you, my advice is to get rid of 'em and focus on price bars instead. They tell you everything the indicators do, just a lot sooner. Won't push you any further on it.
I know what you are talking about.I use PA and SR.s about indicators i keeping them to configure that it may be that move us also i'm testing them how they work what should i look what not.
  • #898,819
  • May 17, 2014 11:26am May 17, 2014 11:26am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} {quote} In any case, just an update: All things equal, the Bears party has two days left- three by a stretch. Limit to the downside, should be $1.364 - $1.373 then IT IS OVER.
No disrespect Vachus
You were calling 142 143 145 etc.
At what point would you accept that trend including sentiment is changed.
Personally I like you be to be correct because I am going to sell the crap out of EU from higher rallies although I am skeptical of it..
With EZ elections on the corner we could see 1.35 by next ECB meeting in june
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #898,820
  • May 17, 2014 11:28am May 17, 2014 11:28am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} {quote} In any case, just an update: All things equal, the Bears party has two days left- three by a stretch. Limit to the downside, should be $1.364 - $1.373 then IT IS OVER.
I'm in the bull camp for a little while longer and we have Meeting Minutes wednesday. I'm anticipating a turn, or if I'm wrong, at least correction will happen then.

we'll see.
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