EURUSD

I'm from Malaysia

Now it's afternoon and I'm looking for trade idea (signal), analysis and suggestion for next week E/U

Look to sell the rallies on EU.
Fundamentally its on shaky grounds.Here is a nice tip.When confirmed EU is dropping look for immediate crosses like Eur/Aud Eur/GBP and Eur/Chf
you'll find the crosses drop even faster and further.

Warning FX ....

I completely understand what you have been saying. it was you who took my words out of its content. and now you cannot back up you own analysis through my questions.

Just let your ego rest.Get over it.Change professional trader to hobby trader and you'll be fine
Its ok to make mistakes in trading and thinking...its accepting that knowledge that we improve.
Heck I was selling GU and EU from top from 16 positions and closed at 6860 and 3720 only to see another 100pips drop on GU
Yes it was a mistake that I made.Now I admitted it and next time I'll be lot more vigilant. You see its ok nobody is perfect.
From one of my favorite trading books

Now after reading that brilliant quote I will post from Hedge fund Wizards from the owner and trader one of the most profitable funds ever.

I get it, you don't use candle as the confirmation signal, you use something else or don't use it at all. i don't care.

there is no difference in any terms of trading from scalping to carry trade, you get the triggering signal, a confirmation, then the entry.

I asked you to subscribe me to find out instead of nagging me this and that. did you subscribe me yet? or too much of your own ego?

sorry is has been so much noise, and now i should back to the real topic here in this thread.

hi Amikaking, may i ask what's your average hold time?

Candles sticks are completely unreliable, on any time frame above the daily, due to time zones difference. On smaller time frames, the noise is greater.
Generally speaking, the chart itself and all technical indicators - by effect are less reliable than any type price action display ..

Until I'm satisfied.

+1

lol hey man hahah good one.

Davit,

please let me acknowledge here on the more public forum how I admire your analysis and also your attempts to help other people, no matter how unappreciative they might seem to be.

Really enjoyed your video from Mr Pip. Any other videos from Mr. Pip would be much appreciated indeed.

ikdenk

The Man Who Loves Mistakes
Ray Dalio is the founder, CIO, former CEO, and current mentor (the title he assumed in July 2011) of Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund.
As of December 2011, Bridgewater had $120 billion in assets under management and more than 1,400 employees. Bridgewater is unique in many
ways beyond its size:
It has made more money for its investors than any other hedge fund in history—an estimated $50 billion over the past 20 years.
Bridgewater’s flagship fund has a near zero correlation to traditional markets.
Bridgewater’s flagship fund also has a very low correlation to other hedge funds.
The flagship fund uses the relatively rare combination of a fundamentally based systematic approach. (Most hedge funds that are
fundamentally based use a discretionary approach, and most hedge funds that use systematic approaches base them on technical input.)
Bridgewater fosters an unusual corporate culture that encourages criticism among employees, regardless of rank.
Virtually all of Bridgewater’s business is institutional (95 percent institutional, 5 percent fund of funds).
Bridgewater is among a small minority of funds with a 20-year track record.
Bridgewater was the first hedge fund to create separate alpha and beta funds that could be combined in any mix desired by the client.
The track record for Bridgewater’s flagship strategy encompasses both managed accounts and funds, with each trading at multiple target
volatility levels and multiple currencies. The 18 percent volatility strategy has achieved an average annual compounded net return of 14.8 percent
(22.3 percent gross) over a near 20-year period, with an annualized standard deviation of 14.6 percent (16.0 percent on gross return data). The
most impressive aspect of Bridgewater’s performance has been the firm’s ability to generate strong returns on huge assets under management. It
is one thing for a hedge fund strategy to achieve strong return/risk performance on $50 million, or $500 million, or even $5 billion, but to do so on
$50 billion is truly astounding. (Fifty billion dollars is the approximate assets under management Bridgewater had in its Pure Alpha strategy during
2010 when it recorded its highest annual return ever.)
Ray Dalio is a big picture thinker. Question: What one word might best describe Dalio’s view of an economic model based on a thorough
analysis of the entire 67-year post–World War II U.S. economy? Answer: Myopic. Dalio describes his approach as “timeless and universal.” He
believes an economic model should encompass multiple times and countries. Bridgewater employs a fundamentally based computer model that
incorporates trading rules gleaned from both Dalio’s four decades of market observations as well as Bridgewater’s analysis of markets going back
hundreds of years and spanning a broad range of developed and emerging economies.
Dalio named his flagship fund Pure Alpha to differentiate it from the majority of hedge funds he considers primarily beta vehicles. Dalio has been
critical of hedge funds that derive most of their return from beta, but charge the higher fees associated with hedge funds on their entire return, even
though the beta-derived portion can be duplicated by passive long investments. Beta measures how much an investment varies given changes in a
benchmark market (e.g., S&P 500). Essentially, beta-based returns are returns that are earned by assuming various risks, most commonly market
direction risk.1 In contrast, alpha refers to skill-based returns, which by definition are not correlated to any market or risk factor. The name of
Bridgewater’s flagship fund, Pure Alpha, leaves little doubt as to the type of return it seeks to capture. True to its name, Pure Alpha has had near
zero correlation to equities and fixed income and very low correlation (0.10) to hedge funds.
Bridgewater also has a beta-based strategy, All Weather, which has an objective of delivering beta returns in a portfolio mix that is balanced so
that it will do well in different market environments. In 2009, Bridgewater launched All Weather II, which is a constrained version of All Weather that
limits “safe” environment investments when the firm’s “depression gauge” indicator is activated.
The idea that the same fundamentals would have different implications under different circumstances and environments is an essential
component of Dalio’s analytical thinking. As a result, categorization is an important tool for both conceptualizing problems and finding solutions.
One example of category-based thinking is what I would call quadrant conceptualization—two key factors and two states provide four possible
conditions. Bridgewater’s beta fund, the All Weather Fund, provides an example of this type of thinking. The fund combines two factors—growth
and inflation—and two states—increasing and decreasing—and comes up with four conditions:
1. Growth increasing
2. Growth decreasing
3. Inflation increasing
4. Inflation decreasing
Th is four-part categorization reflects Dalio’s view that changes in expected growth and expected inflation are the dominant reasons that some
asset classes do well when others do poorly. The fund’s strategy is to balance the portfolio with investments that do well in each of the above four
environments. In contrast, most conventional portfolios substantially overweight assets that do well in the first category (i.e., growth-increasing
environment), leading to unbalanced portfolios that can do poorly in other types of environments.
Another example of quadrant conceptualization is the way Dalio categorizes the economic outlook for different countries. Here he divides the
world into two types of countries—creditors and debtors—and he defines two key distinguishing characteristics for each—countries that can
exercise independent monetary policy and those that can’t. So there are four classifications of countries:
1. Debtor countries with independent monetary policy (e.g., U.S., U.K.).
2. Debtor countries without independent monetary policy (e.g., Greece, Portugal).
3. Creditor countries with independent monetary policy (e.g., Brazil).
4. Creditor countries without independent monetary policy (e.g., China because it pegs its currency to the dollar, which impedes its ability to
raise interest rates).
Da lio loves mistakes because he believes that mistakes provide learning experiences that are the catalyst for improvement. The concept that
mistakes are the path to progress is one of the pillars of Dalio’s life philosophy and the Bridgewater culture. Dalio is almost reverential in his
comments about mistakes:
I learned that there is an incredible beauty to mistakes because embedded in each mistake is a puzzle and a gem that I could get if I solved it,
i.e., a principle that I could use to reduce my mistakes in the future. I learned that each mistake was probably a reflection of something that I
was (or others were) doing wrong, so if I could figure out what that was, I could learn how to be more effective. . . . While most others seem to
believe that mistakes are bad things, I believe mistakes are good things because I believe that most learning comes via making mistakes and
reflecting on them.
Dalio has set down his life philosophy and management concepts in Principles, a 111-page document that defines the Bridgewater culture and
is required reading for employees. Principles is divided in two sections, the first, which Dalio calls “My Most Fundamental Principles,” and the
second, a resulting compendium of 277 management rules. Not surprisingly, many of the management rules focus on mistakes. A sampling:
Recognize that mistakes are good if they result in learning.
Create a culture in which it is okay to fail but unacceptable not to identify, analyze, and learn from mistakes.
We must bring mistakes into the open and analyze them objectively, so managers need to foster a culture that makes this normal and
penalizes suppressing or covering up mistakes—highlighting them, diagnosing them, thinking about what should be done differently in
the future and then adding that new knowledge to the procedures manual are all essential to our improvement.
Recognize that you will certainly make mistakes and have weaknesses; so will those around you and those who work for you. What matters
is how you deal with them. If you treat mistakes as learning opportunities that can yield rapid improvement if handled well, you will be
excited by them.
If you don’t mind being wrong on the way to being right, you will learn a lot.
If improvement through mistakes is one of the two core concepts in Principles, “radical transparency” is the other. Employees are encouraged to
be extremely transparent, not tolerate dishonesty, criticize each other without reservation, or “let loyalty stand in the way of truth and openness.”
Managers are instructed not to talk about subordinates unless they are in the room. Virtually all meetings at Bridgewater are taped and made
available to employees. Dalio leaves little doubt about his views on the topic of openness and honesty. For example, Management Rule #11 in
Principles states: “Never say anything about a person you wouldn’t say to him directly. If you do, you’re a slimy weasel . . . ”

HI ikdenk
If you click on his video I posted but click on YouTube symbol and watch it on YouTube you'll find many other videos by him.
Watch him explaining harmonics and swing.
Now that's a professional trader does it day in day out and lives on trading.
Regards

not sure about that.

For the last 3 post about me, he has been nagging me about changing my profile stuffs while i stand and defend my ground with solid and reasonable facts.
on the other hand, apparently he felt there is something wrong with it and asking me to admit that i am wrong.

I only subscribe people I want to read.No offence.
regards

I suppose this is for me to read.

All that because i said candle is not reliable as a the triggering signal when used on anything longer than daily tf? and i don't admit that i am wrong standing my ground? haha Davit. Stop trolling me now, good buddy.

You really need to let go of your ego brother or sister? <<( I don't know so just covering all bases)

Davit posts things he thinks will help ALL traders on the forum. I for one read everything he posts. Whether I agree with it or not, it "opens my mind" and adds to my knowledge. Never bad things in my humble book.

I'm on track with you. I analyse the chart again and I notice interesting reason to support the sell off in E/U.

The pair took 1 month to climb from April and finally topped up near 1.4000 and this month it fell so strongly that it only took 15 days to come back to the same starting level and took out all stop losses (the lows at April and March) from April's rally.

Any weekly R levels are good places to sell the E/U.