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EURUSD

  • #898,361
  • May 15, 2014 8:59pm May 15, 2014 8:59pm
Quoting pytaz
{quote} like i said two days ago, i am long from about 1.3690, my sl 1.3643, tp 1.4044 So today didn't hit my loosing stop, now i have green trade, in my opinion tomorrow we will have new high, much higher than 1.3732

Your positions is bad Pytaz ... If you have to go -40PIP + just to prove you're right...
That's a terrible idea, it will kill your account in no time...
  • #898,362
  • May 15, 2014 9:03pm May 15, 2014 9:03pm
Quoting whiteout
{quote} i would be very very very cautious with estimates when it comes to the size and the composition of the fx market, but even if is a huge market, fx like all the other markets* is still a zero sum game, is money that goes from the pocket of somone to the pocket of somone else, so if you wonna gain someone else should lose, can't work in another way. *i am oversimplifying too much, but ehi 4 a.m here
Understood on the zero sum game and I can safely say (for myself at least), I know of no way to accurately estimate the size. It was just a number representing BIG... LOL. 10:00pm here and since I get up for London at 2:30am my time, it's bedtime.

Nice talking with you whiteout. I hope we can again at some point. Have a great day.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #898,363
  • May 15, 2014 9:12pm May 15, 2014 9:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} whats the plan?
for short term it go now 8660 8670
long term watch pa and seeking for sell above 8670
  • #898,364
  • May 15, 2014 9:17pm May 15, 2014 9:17pm
ok ,, still it is 1.371x -- and i had a better choice -- 7hr sleep
rules are different here. Less risk, more profit .. !!
  • #898,365
  • May 15, 2014 9:24pm May 15, 2014 9:24pm
Quoting aarontdang
{quote} Your positions is bad Pytaz ... If you have to go -40PIP + just to prove you're right... That's a terrible idea, it will kill your account in no time...
It is probably not the way you like to trade, but that doesn't makes it a terrible idea. Nothing wrong if -40 pips is just 0.5 or 1% with decent RR, and he is trading based on his personal experience and plan.
  • #898,366
  • May 15, 2014 9:28pm May 15, 2014 9:28pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} "temporarly bottom/euro support" what exactly does this mean? if it parks here for 10mins and continues falling, yep temporary bottom, 6hrs yep same 10days yep I was right
It means that if price goes back there without any game changing headlines out. I will buy it again
  • #898,367
  • May 15, 2014 9:35pm May 15, 2014 9:35pm
Quoting egkid
{quote} for short term it go now 8660 8670 long term watch pa and seeking for sell above 8670
i see some R 8698/99 more at 8691 ish.. i dont like shorting this one.. 8700.7 is a um
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #898,368
  • May 15, 2014 9:37pm May 15, 2014 9:37pm
Quoting JohnIsShort
{quote} It means that if price goes back there without any game changing headlines out. I will buy it again
but yeah "temporarly" is not the best term to describe it, I should have said, its a bottom but with constrains attached to it, like not 500 standart deviations away from consensus data from europe.
  • #898,369
  • May 15, 2014 10:17pm May 15, 2014 10:17pm
Quoting Rand Yap
{quote} It is probably not the way you like to trade, but that doesn't makes it a terrible idea. Nothing wrong if -40 pips is just 0.5 or 1% with decent RR, and he is trading based on his personal experience and plan.

I just don't like like giving $ away first to earned $ later.
That rarely happened ... Once you're in negative, it usually go against you more and more
  • #898,370
  • May 15, 2014 10:18pm May 15, 2014 10:18pm
Very interesting moves we had today. Some points:
1) I believe EURUSD move higher was just a artifact from positioning as safe-heavens were bid vs USD, giving EUR a boost, not really demand for euros. And if the reports are true, russian banks could be behind the move as well

2) Risk-aversion dominating the bond market with US 10y yields going lower while high risk yields go higher (europe periphery GDP data triggering a extreme sell-off on PIGGS bonds), this is risk-aversion.

3) High Yield currencies weakning as carry trades get blow-off. more risk-aversion. So far Euro currency is trading as it immune to this latest developments, maybe because this down-trend went too fast too quickly, or it could be that Euro is not perceived as risky.

All in all, this developments are extremely europe negative. I hope growth comes back to US so we can go above 1.40
  • #898,371
  • May 15, 2014 10:19pm May 15, 2014 10:19pm
Here's a 10 year view of two USA Monthly Libor Issues against the Euro.
Consistent rising prices in Libor are currently held up by QE.
However, we see some convergence, and a potential for a reversal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0011 5-15-14.jpg Size: 73 KB
  • #898,372
  • Edited 10:36pm May 15, 2014 10:25pm | Edited 10:36pm
Quoting aarontdang
{quote} Your positions is bad Pytaz ... If you have to go -40PIP + just to prove you're right... That's a terrible idea, it will kill your account in no time...
U know i am risking just 40 pips, but i know i gonna get almost 400 from it. Its RR: 1:10, isn't it worth it?
(It's not an advise, use your own head..)
  • #898,373
  • May 15, 2014 10:54pm May 15, 2014 10:54pm
If we get a bullish daily candle tomorrow at the close of the market on the EURUSD, then the pair may be getting ready for a bullish correction.
  • #898,374
  • May 15, 2014 11:06pm May 15, 2014 11:06pm
Hello EUR/US

Never know

enough buyers an it will crawl back up again

1.37 holding up
  • #898,375
  • May 15, 2014 11:09pm May 15, 2014 11:09pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
This can be interesting if the russians want it over 1,37 and ECB under 1,4
If this was correct that the russians were buying euro yesterday what will the ECB do then? WE saw it clearly during the Ukraninen crisis how strong the euro was. It was not the USD that was the safe heaven. This is unlocigal since if the crisis had developed further it would have made bigger damage to the eurosone thann to USA. In addition to this the USD usaually strenghtens at war tendency. So the euro should have declined. As someone said here it is safer for russians to have money in euro than in USD.
Europe is more careful due to the gas and oil link between Russia and Europe. The russians have strong links to China who is also weakening their Yuany and so is the rubel.
This can also be the explaination why the euro has been so strong lately.

If this is corrrect the russians also want to keep it strong to keep the value of their money and the eurosone is their safe heaven. It has also been written som articles abouth the pertrodollar and change of currency for oil in he future.

The eurosione has big problems at the moment with deflation tendency 0,7 and huge unemplymet which is not improving so this could force the ECB to react.

The deline og the euro yday was at a big volume so think it will be a new test of this bottom.
  • #898,376
  • May 15, 2014 11:12pm May 15, 2014 11:12pm
Long GJ @ 170.342
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #898,377
  • May 15, 2014 11:17pm May 15, 2014 11:17pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Long GJ @ 170.342
Why?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #898,378
  • May 15, 2014 11:24pm May 15, 2014 11:24pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Why?
Trying to get a few before 2.00 am EST
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #898,379
  • May 15, 2014 11:27pm May 15, 2014 11:27pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Trying to get a few before 2.00 am EST

I understand the logic behind taking a trade as being, prosperity...

Just wasn't sure why you were going long on the dragon.

But, hey...

Good luck to ya...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #898,380
  • May 15, 2014 11:27pm May 15, 2014 11:27pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} If this was correct that the russians were buying euro yesterday what will the ECB do then? WE saw it clearly during the Ukraninen crisis how strong the euro was. It was not the USD that was the safe heaven. This is unlocigal since if the crisis had developed further it would have made bigger damage to the eurosone thann to USA. In addition to this the USD usaually strenghtens at war tendency. So the euro should have declined. As someone said here it is safer for russians to have money in euro than in USD. Europe is more careful due to the...
the eu was strong because tbill buying during that time. tbill demand lowered interest rates, and made the usd weaker then it would have otherwise been. tbill buying demand was more then likely money leaving stocks. the same is happening in german bunds in more recent days. the stock markets and bond markets are at odds.. we may have a serous wtf moment soon.. stocks and the eu are still on the high side.. the greater potential in a wtf is down since we are just 250+ pips from the eu high, and its easier for the stock market to drop then make HH..tbills were under 2.5 yesterday, that is holding up the eu atm. the question is for how long? the bond people are usually smart. but for 5 years have been mostly wrong.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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