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  • #898,281
  • May 15, 2014 3:23pm May 15, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} not much difference between tick volume and real volume. In the follow 6E chart (euro futures contract), dark shade is from real volume, while light blue shade is from tick volume. Each peak is POC produced by high volume trades which is magnet area attracting price to go there. Price will go extreme to grove area and turn around to go back to the peak. Both the grove and peak are S/R levels {image}
Thank you ffleo

So if I understand you correctly, that chart would be calling for more upside before more down? It's at a groove area now but the "more extreme" groove is further up around 3840/60 or so? And then even higher around the 3900/20 area?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #898,282
  • May 15, 2014 3:30pm May 15, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Thank you ffleo So if I understand you correctly, that chart would be calling for more upside before more down? It's at a groove area now but the "more extreme" groove is further up around 3840/60 or so? And then even higher around the 3900/20 area?
each grove is a strong S/R level, would need strong force to cross, usually crossed by spike. If the price cross the grove by a spike, it tend to go to the next peak and go over it to next grove. Spike has strong force in a short time, but its volume spread over a large price movement, hence the grove.

Euro has a deep grove at 1.4, that is why it is so difficult to cross. Would need strong force to cross it. Same for cable at 1.7/1.71

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro- i7860-TDA_222.png Size: 212 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #898,283
  • May 15, 2014 3:31pm May 15, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} I'm going to wait the daily close I think but to be honest, Just about anywhere around here I'd feel safe shorting it. It's been hanging here for a bit now. Only thing that would change my mind to "think harder" on it is a 4H (1 hour for me) or daily (4 hours for me) close above this 50% and TL. The 1H although a close above the 50ema has a nice bearish pin and price is straddling the DP as of now. In this low volume time, not much change expected. Difference between here and say the 50% should it get there is about 20 pips. {image} {image}...
Too much risk to just short it with a stop above the top. I'm thinking maybe a 10 pip risk, 12 with the spread. Could be lower if I'm patient (and awake).
  • #898,284
  • May 15, 2014 3:37pm May 15, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} each grove is a strong S/R level, would need strong force to cross, usually crossed by spike. If the price cross the grove by a spike, it tend to go to the next peak and go over it to next grove. Spike has strong force in a short time, but its volume spread over a large price movement, hence the grove.
Ahhh.... I see. So something like Granny Yellen yapping tonight or NFP etc... could cause a spike and thus cross of groves then eh?

The volume spread over a large move makes logical sense to cause the grove. Since the spikes "generally" tend to reverse back toward the center of the move, the bulk of the volume would be around there as buyer and sellers to find balance. Am I close?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #898,285
  • May 15, 2014 3:41pm May 15, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Too much risk to just short it with a stop above the top. I'm thinking maybe a 10 pip risk, 12 with the spread. Could be lower if I'm patient (and awake).
You trade much like GD right? Higher risk over smaller moves. In and out as quickly as possible?

I just marvel at GD's approach. He's been spending considerable time showing me lately. We traded our own styles together a lot last year in my thread. I usually made more pips but he always kicked my butt in % gained. Still does the little so and so... ... LOL
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #898,286
  • May 15, 2014 3:42pm May 15, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} What would you do with this M30 candle? Long and short? Or hold long until it get stop-out? {image}
M30 technical bottomed, should be long if based on M30
  • #898,287
  • May 15, 2014 3:44pm May 15, 2014 3:44pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Ahhh.... I see. So something like Granny Yellen yapping tonight or NFP etc... could cause a spike and thus cross of groves then eh? The volume spread over a large move makes logical sense to cause the grove. Since the spikes "generally" tend to reverse back toward the center of the move, the bulk of the volume would be around there as buyer and sellers to find balance. Am I close?
the grove is crossed normally during big news, mostly in London and US sessions. Can happen in Asia session from BOJ news.

Sometime the grove is crossed briefly, but the other strong force do not like it, will push it back. Last week euro almost crossed 1.4, but one strong force pushed it back, and lots of funds saw it, hence the straight drop for many days.

yeah, you are right, the peak area is the area to find a balance between buyers and sellers. The peak areas is the ideal area to scalp cause there are balanced buyers and sellers. While the grove area is the ideal entry for swing trade
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #898,288
  • May 15, 2014 3:46pm May 15, 2014 3:46pm
not smart question to spread in a kind forum

Quoting Ken A
{quote} What would you do with this M30 candle? Long and short? Or hold long until it get stop-out? {image}
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #898,289
  • May 15, 2014 3:49pm May 15, 2014 3:49pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} the grove is crossed normally during big news, mostly in London and US sessions. Can happen in Asia session from BOJ news. Sometime the grove is crossed briefly, but the other strong force do not like it, will push it back. Last week euro almost crossed 1.4, but one strong force pushed it back, and lots of funds saw it, hence the straight drop for many days. yeah, you are right, the peak area is the area to find a balance between buyers and sellers. The peak areas is the ideal area to scalp cause there are balances buyers and sellers. While...
Very interesting stuff. I thank you for taking the time to explain it a bit ffleo ... I think I understand the "concept" ok, now just need a couple years to master it...LOL
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #898,290
  • May 15, 2014 3:50pm May 15, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} You trade much like GD right? Higher risk over smaller moves. In and out as quickly as possible? I just marvel at GD's approach. He's been spending considerable time showing me lately. We traded our own styles together a lot last year in my thread. I usually made more pips but he always kicked my butt in % gained. Still does the little so and so... ... LOL
Who's GD? That doesn't really sound like what I do though. Low risk over larger moves is what I aim for.
  • #898,291
  • May 15, 2014 3:52pm May 15, 2014 3:52pm
Yellen tonight has good chances to lower USD
  • #898,292
  • May 15, 2014 3:54pm May 15, 2014 3:54pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Who's GD? That doesn't really sound like what I do though. Low risk over larger moves is what I aim for.
GDR3K. I thought you had similar styles. Ooops... My mistake.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #898,293
  • May 15, 2014 3:56pm May 15, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting MAM.Trader
not smart question to spread in a kind forum {quote}
Why not? Ken was asking the poster what they'd do in that situation.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #898,294
  • May 15, 2014 3:56pm May 15, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} GDR3K. I thought you had similar styles. Ooops... My mistake.
Haha. He's a cool guy, he seems to do alright. But I don't think we're too similar in how we trade. Then again I could be mistaken, I haven't actually talked to him much about it.
  • #898,295
  • May 15, 2014 3:58pm May 15, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} What would you do with this M30 candle? Long and short? Or hold long until it get stop-out? {image}
I wouldn't go short in any case -- see the chart in Post 897,987. It would go up to 1.3800, but I expect it to reach 1.3825ish (Fib50%).

SL is 1.3700. The key is EMA200 on 15M -- if it turns upward, my reading is very likely to happen

Hope it helps.
  • #898,296
  • Edited 4:11pm May 15, 2014 3:58pm | Edited 4:11pm
Quoting aarontdang
{quote} Is this a buy or a sell now ???? It's keep sitting there ...
There is no now.
Price was rejected passing 4675-80 (notice long tails H1 and lower.)
Wait for price comes down to 4560-50 then go long
You could say why not sell to 4560-50 then go long from there well we don't know if price will actually go back to 4560.Since overall zone is buy selling even at current levels has diminished edge.
Average ADR 20day is 100pips on this pair so waiting for 100pips south is not improbable.
Stack as many factors on your side or you will be killed.Most times taking no action is equivalent cheetah not sprinting early and wasting precious ($$) energy.
To go even deeper I look at correlations
http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation/EURAUD
Notice GBP/AUD has the highest correlation...and also notice AUD/CHF has highest -correlation.
That should give you feel where this pair is at current level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.h1.png Size: 40 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #898,297
  • May 15, 2014 4:03pm May 15, 2014 4:03pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} I wouldn't go short in any case -- see the chart in Post 897,987. It would go up to 1.3800, but I expect it to reach 1.3825ish (Fib50%). SL is 1.3700. The key is EMA200 on 15M -- if it turns upward, my reading is very likely to happen Hope it helps.
Just curious because I saw you also long U/J from the bottom.
  • #898,298
  • May 15, 2014 4:07pm May 15, 2014 4:07pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Haha. He's a cool guy, he seems to do alright. But I don't think we're too similar in how we trade. Then again I could be mistaken, I haven't actually talked to him much about it.
He is and he does very, very well. And nope, by what you just said about how you trade, complete opposite sides of the spectrum. Just like him and I.

You and I seem to have more in common to our approach. I also look for larger moves preferably but I will do it all really. From holding for days/weeks when I can to scalping when things are slow. His patience to set up his orders and just wait for the market to hit them is amazing. But MAN does it pay off well.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #898,299
  • May 15, 2014 4:08pm May 15, 2014 4:08pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Just curious because I saw you also long U/J from the bottom.
I don't think EU and UJ are correlated that much as of now. Eur is the driver for EU, while Jpy is the driver for UJ. So I wouldn't be surprised if both go up.
Anyway, I'm just following the charts. I don't do fundamental analysis...
Best,
  • #898,300
  • May 15, 2014 4:15pm May 15, 2014 4:15pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} I don't think EU and UJ are correlated that much as of now. Eur is the driver for EU, while Jpy is the driver for UJ. So I wouldn't be surprised if both go up. Anyway, I'm just following the charts. I don't do fundamental analysis... Best,
Yes you are right and going into Friday probably mix of things
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