Thanks Scotty for opening this thread, I find your analysis useful as it gives me hints about foreign sentiment on Turkish lira. I reside in Turkey and will try to share my fundamental view on usdtl from time to time. Win win 
As you mentioned your first post, 2.15 was indeed a good opportunity to go long on the lira especially with its really high interest rate. I don't expect the rates will stay here for long though, a small cut with further intentions is a very probable option for the next cb meeting. For now there is not much room for political tension so the market will try to buy elections more, but I feel most of the trades are already on table. My current view is to stay on the lira with large portion of my portfolio to earn nice interest, but also to enter small short trades when it's overbought. More precisely, I call it overbought if it will ever see below 2.05 before the meeting.
As you mentioned your first post, 2.15 was indeed a good opportunity to go long on the lira especially with its really high interest rate. I don't expect the rates will stay here for long though, a small cut with further intentions is a very probable option for the next cb meeting. For now there is not much room for political tension so the market will try to buy elections more, but I feel most of the trades are already on table. My current view is to stay on the lira with large portion of my portfolio to earn nice interest, but also to enter small short trades when it's overbought. More precisely, I call it overbought if it will ever see below 2.05 before the meeting.
- #88
- May 14, 2014 2:09am May 14, 2014 2:09am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #91
- Edited 6:12am May 14, 2014 4:34am | Edited 6:12am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
A low volumed pre FO drop below yesterday's low held in a 30 pip accumulation range. This was followed by a nice little fake-out / stop sweep at the new low - a wider red high volumed marubozo which turned into a bullish harami as the buyers pilled in grateful to those selling the fake-out in a true sucker trade....
The hourly chart has the low in a high volumed green hammer and having taken partials at the red line I am finished for this morning and will return at the NY Open to see IF the US traders are buyers too.....if so, then my target will be ~the 61% retrace of the last swing down which is at the current 10 ADR range of 155 pips......TWT
A nice technical trading morning session
Edit: no, I wasn't finished - the break and retest of the BRN allowed me to buy again and my target at the 61% retrace was hit, so that's the 10 day ADR all done in the morning session...
The hourly chart has the low in a high volumed green hammer and having taken partials at the red line I am finished for this morning and will return at the NY Open to see IF the US traders are buyers too.....if so, then my target will be ~the 61% retrace of the last swing down which is at the current 10 ADR range of 155 pips......TWT
A nice technical trading morning session
Edit: no, I wasn't finished - the break and retest of the BRN allowed me to buy again and my target at the 61% retrace was hit, so that's the 10 day ADR all done in the morning session...
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #92
- May 14, 2014 8:15am May 14, 2014 8:15am
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts
Twitter: @TrendersGame
- #93
- May 14, 2014 9:21am May 14, 2014 9:21am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #95
- May 15, 2014 2:55am May 15, 2014 2:55am
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Informed | 1,641 Posts
I've opened a small long position as the market is trading above 2.07. We are only 4 trading days from the next interest rate announcement. The market is very convinced that Basci will hold steady. If this is the case we'll quickly see 2.0. If he does in fact cut rates, even by a little bit, we'll see the 2.25 mark that many analysts are predicting by the end of the year. I'll be surprised if we don't see a rate cut. Erdogan is seeking re-election, the turkish people go to the poles in August. If Basci holds rates steady then we'll be looking at late June for the next rate meeting. In my opinion, it would be more advantageous to force Basci to cut rates now so that this gesture has adequate time to absorb into the collective consciousness of Turkish voters.
If rates are cut things could get wild. Investors will again decry the unorthodox monetary policy and they'll dump the Lira. If rates are held steady even I will work on making my way to at least to 2.0 -1.9 level as I mentioned before. I'm still disturbed by Basci's reckless comments though. That dude is going to give me an ulcer.
If I had been short all the way down to this level as we approach another meeting I'd be taking profits already. I think we'll see profit taking spikes and price movement that drifts sideways as heavy bids support the market. Bids are take profit orders in the real world and I'd imagine there are quite a few of them out there. Only TWT. Good trading everyone.
If rates are cut things could get wild. Investors will again decry the unorthodox monetary policy and they'll dump the Lira. If rates are held steady even I will work on making my way to at least to 2.0 -1.9 level as I mentioned before. I'm still disturbed by Basci's reckless comments though. That dude is going to give me an ulcer.
If I had been short all the way down to this level as we approach another meeting I'd be taking profits already. I think we'll see profit taking spikes and price movement that drifts sideways as heavy bids support the market. Bids are take profit orders in the real world and I'd imagine there are quite a few of them out there. Only TWT. Good trading everyone.
- #96
- May 15, 2014 3:17am May 15, 2014 3:17am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
I think the pullback was just London ID profit takers, so I bought the 38% retrace of today's range - also ~ a minor S&R level.....a run up into NY lunch would be nice....
I bought again after this morning's drop towards the 2.07 level with yesterday's high as my initial target and then the 10 ADR ~2.0860......TWT
@Scotty - thanks for your update, much appreciated by this ID trader
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #97
- May 15, 2014 6:31am May 15, 2014 6:31am
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts
Twitter: @TrendersGame
- #99
- May 15, 2014 7:07am May 15, 2014 7:07am
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts
Twitter: @TrendersGame
