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  • #897,661
  • May 14, 2014 12:57pm May 14, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
Loading up on longs. Today is accumulation for sure. Saw lots of buying on Tuesday. Next target 1.42+.

Gidday

Yeah I still got small longs to 1.40

Big mistake to think EUR won't crawl back up again

Not sure how many days

But it will happen
  • #897,662
  • May 14, 2014 1:12pm May 14, 2014 1:12pm
Vol/spread highest today in over a year on euro fx futures... Something was definitely going on. Look at one minute chart. Vol surges on down bars. We may have a false break of this weeks lows. But I really wouldn't be surprised if they mark up the EU very heavily soon... Maybe even in Asia.
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  • #897,663
  • May 14, 2014 1:25pm May 14, 2014 1:25pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
Vol/spread highest today in over a year on euro fx futures... Something was definitely going on. Look at one minute chart. Vol surges on down bars. We may have a false break of this weeks lows. But I really wouldn't be surprised if they mark up the EU very heavily soon... Maybe even in Asia. {image}
Down you say? Nice! I hope that will have impact on the EU spot soon and hopefully in Asia session.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #897,664
  • May 14, 2014 1:27pm May 14, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Down you say? Nice! I hope that will have impact on the EU spot soon and hopefully in Asia session.
I've read a paper on this. The authors' conclusion was that currency futures do not lead spot. They used to, though.
  • #897,665
  • May 14, 2014 1:35pm May 14, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} I've read a paper on this. The authors' conclusion was that currency futures do not lead spot. They used to, though.
Hmmn...Wonder what broke the correlation? Because it's more intuitive that it should.

I just checked the liquidity on FF here, it's 70% less < average. Can you believe it? No wonder nothing is moving. I just can't believe that one day even EU can be this dead. Wonder where did all the volume go?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #897,666
  • May 14, 2014 1:43pm May 14, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting maximinus
{quote} Oh my sh.. I'm only a low impact member Shame on me There are really frustrated people here I ask myself if they are here for making or trying to make money or for collecting medals
I just subscribed to you maximinus. Sorry it didn't raise your "impact" color though. ... ....

You can have mine
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #897,667
  • May 14, 2014 1:48pm May 14, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Hmmn...Wonder what broke the correlation? Because it's more intuitive that it should. I just checked the liquidity on FF here, it's 70% less < average. Can you believe it? No wonder nothing is moving. I just can't believe that one day even EU can be this dead. Wonder where did all the volume go?
If I recall correctly, there were regulatory reasons. Big money somehow gained an advantage by using the spot markets over futures in their daily operations, but I don't remember the details. There was a lot more.
  • #897,668
  • May 14, 2014 1:51pm May 14, 2014 1:51pm
Might be trying to say something.

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  • #897,669
  • May 14, 2014 1:53pm May 14, 2014 1:53pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} If I recall correctly, there were regulatory reasons. Big money somehow gained an advantage by using the spot markets over futures in their daily operations, but I don't remember the details. There was a lot more.
Really? Is that the latest benchmark fixing and frontrunning practices that you are referring to as their "advantage"? I know there was massive firing of traders from all those Big Boys but people still need to exchange currencies and they can't all be doing them in the futures market.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #897,670
  • May 14, 2014 1:57pm May 14, 2014 1:57pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Down you say? Nice! I hope that will have impact on the EU spot soon and hopefully in Asia session.
Nope. Up. I'm looking at 1.42+ region.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #897,671
  • May 14, 2014 1:58pm May 14, 2014 1:58pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Really? Is that the latest benchmark fixing and frontrunning practices that you are referring to as their "advantage"? I know there was massive firing of traders from all those Big Boys but people still need to exchange currencies and they can't all be doing them in the futures market.
Here's a "recent" research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2006). Haven't read it but it seems to support the notion that futures no longer lead spot.

Quote
"Taken together, our evidence suggests that the amount of information contained in currency futures prices
in 1996 is much greater than one would expect based on relative market size. Using
data from 2006, we obtain quite different results, perhaps because of an increase in
spot market transparency. In particular, we find in our more recent sample that the spot
market has the dominant information share."


Source: https://www.econstor.eu/dspace/bitst.../519350588.pdf
  • #897,672
  • May 14, 2014 2:17pm May 14, 2014 2:17pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} I just subscribed to you maximinus. Sorry it didn't raise your "impact" color though. ... .... You can have mine
what about meeeh
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  • #897,673
  • May 14, 2014 2:29pm May 14, 2014 2:29pm
"Haven't read it but it seems to support"
Quoting Myo
{quote} Here's a "recent" research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2006). Haven't read it but it seems to support the notion that futures no longer lead spot. {quote} Source: https://www.econstor.eu/dspace/bitst.../519350588.pdf
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #897,674
  • May 14, 2014 2:33pm May 14, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting MAM.Trader
"Haven't read it but it seems to support" {quote}
*sigh*
That's why I quoted from the abstract.
  • #897,675
  • May 14, 2014 2:38pm May 14, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} what about meeeh {image}
Sorry bro, the kitty only works once. But it did save you half a strike
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #897,676
  • May 14, 2014 2:51pm May 14, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Just reading through the report here, there are already few things that I question: First, it mentioned that you actually higher anonymity in currency futures market, more than spot? I thought it's the other way around, you have more anonymity with spot market because all the trading is done in a closed private interbank network? Isn't that the reason why the OTC market has enjoyed higher volumn always?

I can only quote from the paper (p. 3):

"However, we do know that the institutional structure of the currency futures market preserves anonymity of the dealer’s identity with the trade counterparty (when a dealer executes through a broker), while interdealer spot market does not. In the foreign exchange futures market, the counterparty to each side of a trade is the futures clearinghouse so trader identity is not revealed, even at settlement. By contrast, in the foreign exchange spot market, a dealer’s identity is disclosed when a quote is requested or given (direct trading) or when the trade is complete (indirect trading)."
  • #897,677
  • May 14, 2014 2:52pm May 14, 2014 2:52pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} I can only quote from the paper (p. 3): "However, we do know that the institutional structure of the currency futures market preserves anonymity of the dealer’s identity with the trade counterparty (when a dealer executes through a broker), while interdealer spot market does not. In the foreign exchange futures market, the counterparty to each side of a trade is the futures clearinghouse so trader identity is not revealed, even at settlement. By contrast, in the foreign exchange spot market, a dealer’s identity is disclosed when a quote...
I know and that's what I question.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #897,678
  • May 14, 2014 3:17pm May 14, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting Myo
{quote} Here's a "recent" research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2006). Haven't read it but it seems to support the notion that futures no longer lead spot. {quote} Source: https://www.econstor.eu/dspace/bitst.../519350588.pdf
read this:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post7007854
  • #897,679
  • May 14, 2014 3:20pm May 14, 2014 3:20pm
Just read the following article on the Financial Times according to which stimulus in June is sure thing. I get more and more the impression, that many expect ECB to do the work that only a central government can do. Most of the expectations on Eurozone depend on the reforms that at this point only local governments can make and implement. ECB cannot solve structural problems inherent to individual countries. What ECB can do is just to hope in a fast US recovery.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5c55a134-d...#axzz31jIUr28g
  • #897,680
  • May 14, 2014 3:24pm May 14, 2014 3:24pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} read this: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post7007854
yeah, same conclusion.
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