Do you believe this market is random? | Page 8 | Forex Factory

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Do you believe this market is random?

  • #141
  • May 13, 2014 5:00am May 13, 2014 5:00am
The market, like all living entities, is a working and methodical system. And because it's a system (by traditional definition), it is NOT random. I used to think otherwise many years ago, but as time passes, the previously mentioned statement becomes more and more evident.
  • #142
  • May 13, 2014 5:03am May 13, 2014 5:03am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} are you asking me how it is possible to make profit from a random market?

No, bcz it's clear you don't make much profit..

you say the market is random and at the same time you know how it works.. I am asking how do you know how something works when its random.. this two don't go much together, but it seems you might know.. I like to hear it.

my question is very clear brother..
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #143
  • May 13, 2014 5:08am May 13, 2014 5:08am
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} No, bcz it's clear you don't make much profit.. you say the market is random and at the same time you know how it works.. I am asking how do you know how something works when its random.. this two don't go much together, but it seems you might know.. I like to hear it. my question is very clear brother..
Did I say I know how it works? I think you have made a mistake
tradewith60
  • #144
  • May 13, 2014 5:13am May 13, 2014 5:13am
Quoting mr.marketz
The market, like all living entities, is a working and methodical system. And because it's a system (by traditional definition), it is NOT random. I used to think otherwise many years ago, but as time passes, the previously mentioned statement becomes more and more evident.
It's true and i'm glad you can see because that's when the real fun starts. But We have people here that say the market is random, they might as well flip a coin and pick trades that way and yet they call themselves traders. FF has a lot of gamblers here who mistake what they do for trading Lol.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #145
  • May 13, 2014 5:17am May 13, 2014 5:17am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Did I say I know how it works? I think you have made a mistake

you did not say!!.. ok my mistake..

but when you tell someone else that, you don't know how the market works.. it's sort of indication to say the least that YOU know how it works.. just a simple take away.

anyhow, forget it 60.. enjoy your day.
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #146
  • May 13, 2014 5:27am May 13, 2014 5:27am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} It's true and i'm glad you can see because that's when the real fun starts. But We have people here that say the market is random, they might as well flip a coin and pick trades that way and yet they call themselves traders. FF has a lot of gamblers here who mistake what they do for trading Lol.

sandy.. if you think market is not random and rather predictable.. then this will make you bigger gambler than the constant losers in casinos.. if you think you can maintain a hit win rate ratio for consistent period of time to actually feel reliable to build business around it you are dreaming.
at least if you think random you might actually have a chance to no lose you ass.

This market at best is a speculation game to us retail traders.. game of probabilities with sound MM.. rest is just bunch of bs. now called it whatever you want.
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #147
  • May 13, 2014 5:35am May 13, 2014 5:35am
The random variables remain random .we dont know the unfolding futer events.for the point of the discussion that would make this market random.
What we can predict with a certain amount of accuracy is where positions and interest is building.certain groups within this market have some of this knowledge we dont .but that does not mean we cant determine this.this part of the market has predictable outcomes.although these outcomes are a result of the random variables.
If you are able to average the unfolding information you can determine an overall positive outcome.
So as far as my perspective is i believe the market to be less random than random.the ranges within the ranges help to to confuse most and add to the random point iscolating from fixed point one can see a clear deterministic outcomes.

This is al about information and how we use this information.the less information you have the more random things seem to be
  • #148
  • May 13, 2014 5:35am May 13, 2014 5:35am
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} you did not say!!.. ok my mistake.. but when you tell someone else that, you don't know how the market works.. it's sort of indication to say the least that YOU know how it works.. just a simple take away. anyhow, forget it 60.. enjoy your day.
thanks, enjoy your profits.
tradewith60
  • #149
  • May 13, 2014 5:46am May 13, 2014 5:46am
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} sandy.. if you think market is not random and rather predictable.. then this will make you bigger gambler than the constant losers in casinos.. if you think you can maintain a hit win rate ratio for consistent period of time to actually feel reliable to build business around it you are dreaming. at least if you think random you might actually have a chance to no lose you ass. This market at best is a speculation game to us retail traders.. game of probabilities with sound MM.. rest is just bunch of bs. now called it whatever you want.

That's fine man, that's your theory. But the market is predictable at least enough times to make gains. It's by coincident that Pipmeup just provided scientific fact that the market is not 100 percent random, look at it and see maybe it might help get you on the right path. Where you go from there is up to you. I am wondering though, you do realize that some people have been trading for over 50 years right and successfully too, do you think it's luck that help these guys, or skill? Lol just curious.

Anyway here is the link of the data provided by Pipmeup. At least it might be able to help a few.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61674&page=101
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #150
  • May 13, 2014 5:54am May 13, 2014 5:54am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} That's fine man, that's your theory. But the market is predictable at least enough times to make gains. It's by coincident that Pipmeup just provided scientific fact that the market is not 100 percent random, look at it and see maybe it might help get you on the right path. Where you go from there is up to you. I am wondering though, you do realize that some people have been trading for over 50 years right and successfully too, do you think it's luck that help these guys, or skill? Lol just curious. Anyway here is the link of the data provided...

lol..
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #151
  • May 13, 2014 5:58am May 13, 2014 5:58am
Quoting diceman555
This is al about information and how we use this information.the less information you have the more random things seem to be
This is what I have been saying all along. There are guys with contacts in banks who get information and to them they have a picture, and there are others who use the information of the market to get a good amount of data to make predictable trades. No one is talking about being 100 percent right. A good trade can go wrong and a bad trade can go right, it's something we have to live with. But to make a blanket statement like the market is random, to me is an excuse to not look for anymore answers.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #152
  • May 13, 2014 7:32am May 13, 2014 7:32am
Quoting mr.marketz
The market, like all living entities, is a working and methodical system. And because it's a system (by traditional definition), it is NOT random. I used to think otherwise many years ago, but as time passes, the previously mentioned statement becomes more and more evident.
Hi Mr marketz, can you supply us with an example to explain what led you to your assumption?.
tradewith60
  • #153
  • May 13, 2014 8:11am May 13, 2014 8:11am
Random: preceding without a defined aim, reason, or pattern; process of selection where each item in a set of options has an equal probability of being chosen.

If you consider the above definition of random, then the forex is not random. However, the forex is impacted by random events.
  • #154
  • May 13, 2014 8:25am May 13, 2014 8:25am
Quoting GEfx
Random: preceding without a defined aim, reason, or pattern; process of selection where each item in a set of options has an equal probability of being chosen. If you consider the above definition of random, then the forex is not random. However, the forex is impacted by random events.
Agreed. There are at least two different definitions of random.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #155
  • May 13, 2014 9:59am May 13, 2014 9:59am
Quoting mr.marketz
The market, like all living entities, is a working and methodical system. And because it's a system (by traditional definition), it is NOT random. I used to think otherwise many years ago, but as time passes, the previously mentioned statement becomes more and more evident.
Nothing is random in the market.

People believe they have free will and original ideas, but nearly everything everyone says and does is highly predictable and incredibly boring. People think they're special and individual and love to hear themselves speak, no matter how mundane or tread worn their responses or ideas are.

The truth is, the majority of thought never escapes the garbage in, garbage out syndrome which dominates human behavior.

Humans are a product of their environment, their social training, and chemically/electromagnetically a product of the universe which is dictated by certain laws.

The fact that awareness is so low in the vast majority of people, they are amazed by ridiculously simple things and can't recognize how mechanized their responses are to rote mechanical phenomena. The same way a goldfish is surprised by the time it reaches the other side of the bowl and smacks it's head on the glass.

Since the market is a byproduct of human behavior, and a metric of human activity or how we value energy, it can't escape the plodding methodical nature of it's inception or the limitations of the system it represents.

If people replaced the word random with the word magic, they'd have a better understanding of how the market operates.

Since the market is completely mechanical, it can be controlled like a magic trick. A magician understands human behavior, and uses the lack of awareness in most people to fool them. The market structure evolved this way because all trade is based on getting the best price. It's basically a sophisticated form of "magic" that relies on understanding human emotion and lack of awareness to fool the majority of participants. Price will ultimately go where it's valuation dictates, but how it gets there is a game of emotional and intellectual subterfuge.

Good traders have understood this for thousands of years and profited by it.
  • #156
  • May 13, 2014 10:06am May 13, 2014 10:06am
Quoting Luther
{quote} Nothing is random in the market. People believe they have free will and original ideas, but nearly everything everyone says and does is highly predictable and incredibly boring. People think they're special and individual and love to hear themselves speak, no matter how mundane or tread worn their responses or ideas are. The truth is, the majority of thought never escapes the garbage in, garbage out syndrome which dominates human behavior. Humans are a product of their environment, their social training, and chemically/electromagnetically...
great stuff !!!!!Couldnt find anything in your post to disagree with.
  • #157
  • May 13, 2014 10:55am May 13, 2014 10:55am
You can discuss forever if the market is or isn't random.

Fact is, without factoring randomness, you will not succeed.

Trading is not an exact science, and unexpected events are part of it.

Patterns would work 100% of the times if they weren't random, and trading would be a walk in the park without the need of stop losses.

Even science is regularly "fooled by randomness".
  • #158
  • May 13, 2014 11:09am May 13, 2014 11:09am
Quoting cesare76fx
You can discuss forever if the market is or isn't random. Fact is, without factoring randomness, you will not succeed. Trading is not an exact science, and unexpected events are part of it. Patterns would work 100% of the times if they weren't random, and trading would be a walk in the park without the need of stop losses. Even science is regularly "fooled by randomness".
Thats seems perfectly reasonable to me,
tradewith60
  • #159
  • May 13, 2014 11:38am May 13, 2014 11:38am
Quoting Luther
{quote} Nothing is random in the market. People believe they have free will and original ideas, but nearly everything everyone says and does is highly predictable and incredibly boring. People think they're special and individual and love to hear themselves speak, no matter how mundane or tread worn their responses or ideas are. The truth is, the majority of thought never escapes the garbage in, garbage out syndrome which dominates human behavior. Humans are a product of their environment, their social training, and chemically/electromagnetically...

Get away from that crack pipe bud..
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #160
  • May 13, 2014 12:08pm May 13, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} Get away from that crack pipe bud..
lool
tradewith60
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