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Do you believe this market is random?

  • #121
  • Edited 2:34pm May 12, 2014 2:18pm | Edited 2:34pm
@60minuteman
I am sorry, I don't believe too much in statistics either. They are correct mostly backwards.
(But you can still send me more info about good ideas)

@victor ray
After how long time did you came to such realizations?
I will say it is mostly dumb because of numerous things, and also, could you not say something better on MM/RM?

#random, predictable, unpredictable...
For all - enjoy some truth...and try to help...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post7463913
  • #122
  • May 12, 2014 4:02pm May 12, 2014 4:02pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} That's a whole other issue. A person with a higher with rate with a RR of 1:1 would always trump someone with a lower win rate with a RR 1:1. We are not talking about how much you can be right and still make money, I am trying to figure out, how many winning trades in a row would it take you to acknowledge that you simple don't know enough or that you dont have enough information. You have Algos that are winning everyday for years while trading millions of trade a day, in a random market would such a thing be possible?

Algos have visual access to retailers orders, retailers don´t.
They play poker, with retailer cards visible....that changes the outcome, of a randon hand of cards from the pack.
Markets, (in my humble observation) are random, then they are not, then they are again...and the order of those is, yes you guessed it: random.

Still,if you can measure those periods in time and price, add support and resistance,momentum, position size and patience, you can capture enough to cover your expenses, (losses at random fazes), plus an edge of profit.
Bloody algo robots with their stop hunting are making it harder by the day...though....
The game is rigged.....
by the way, I´m profitable: 71 % winners, 0,29R expectancy after 52 trades....and I´m not a genius.. I study my charts (and books) very very hard though...

And by the way, the higher the time frame the less randomness (noise), stop hunting ...etc...just have a look at a monthly chart...mostly clean runs....problem, fo me at least, I´m too old to run a trade for 20 months or so...
  • #123
  • May 12, 2014 7:30pm May 12, 2014 7:30pm
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} Algos have visual access to retailers orders, retailers don´t. They play poker, with retailer cards visible....that changes the outcome, of a randon hand of cards from the pack. Markets, (in my humble observation) are random, then they are not, then they are again...and the order of those is, yes you guessed it: random. Still,if you can measure those periods in time and price, add support and resistance,momentum, position size and patience, you can capture enough to cover your expenses, (losses at random fazes), plus an edge of profit. Bloody...
You are correct, but I was just showing that trading is based on information. And it seems like most traders on here are under the impression that we all trade using the same information and that is simply not true. Nice input man I know about the higher time frames, but i'm not the one who you have to convince it's the randomness posse on here. Nice results and good luck with your trading.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #124
  • Edited 9:16pm May 12, 2014 8:33pm | Edited 9:16pm
@ Legionary
4 years of fighting the market on "not being random" and tried to claim the future is when I realize I can't win the battle so I gave in to the "random fact."
and because I stop fighting on the future. I was able to really focus on the thing that matter which is "master the INNERself" . I got to say it was pretty easy when you have mind set that you lose 80% of the time and there is nothing you can do to stop it... except... lose less and hopefully you get to win more through MM risk and reward.

And No I can not say something better than what I put public on mm and rm because believe it or not I am one of the "lucky" one.... So i get away with order where MANY people would lose while I win on the "hold and wait game" Obviously every risk is different...as market is randomly change my risk change often... "sometime it can get low as 30% draw down"... call as you will lol.. But there is nothing good about promoting gambling risky mm when majority people are really unlucky.

But I for sure.. I lose hell lot of money... in my 4 year around 20,000$ live money.... to get this far. But hey maybe it's my lucky year who know... but for sure I ain't letting the lucky chance go away without me profiting a bunch of money on ....it


Just a fun chart of my profit of live account over the year from Sep 8, 2011 till today. These win and loss are real stats. and you see the red candle on "orderhistory window that mean i Lose money, and green candle = i win money"

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 79 KB



Bigger View of my order history profit/loss window:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 79 KB
  • #125
  • May 12, 2014 9:52pm May 12, 2014 9:52pm
Just a little fun luck bet...: Looking at all the news (*hint*) volatility should be around 70 pip today. So now the question here is will it go up or down...

I'll just make a wild...guess that it will daily close at 1.3820.

Seriously who is going to sell (i'll know my answer by the end of tomorrow)

It's impossible to predict the future... you can only hope for best and hope for a lucky outcome...
  • #126
  • May 12, 2014 11:24pm May 12, 2014 11:24pm
Victor let me ask you a simple question and answer honestly. If you had the power to know which currencies were bought and sold the most would you still consider FX random, or the ability to get that information, would you still be singing the same song you're singing now?
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #127
  • May 12, 2014 11:45pm May 12, 2014 11:45pm
If i have a the power to see a "full world buy and sell volumes of a certain currency" I would run a few trial.

Trial #1: I need to clear the myth that "if forex is fair as it say it would no one should have the power to MOVE the market..at least not 100 pip up and down like toys". All these time I would assume 5 banks working together to destroy...3 bank... If one bank can move price up and down at will which is "unfair and then the bank will be rich..since you move the price.." As of now it's believe by everyone that no "one in this world can move price freely"


Trial #2: It has to be consistence in term om as long as buy volume alway win..it should go up...NOT down like stop hunt crap.


That's what it take for me believe it's not random. Sure "there can be random sell entry order that OVER Leverage the buy order." Result it should go down ..not up. So it's ok if that happen.


So yes only after that then I'll believe that it's not random. And I shouldn't lose money either..since it make no sense...
  • #128
  • May 13, 2014 12:08am May 13, 2014 12:08am
For all the exactitude and determinancy of astronomical mathematics, the great advances, predictable eclipses, etc.etc. you cannot rule out that the stars in the are there at random, changing slowly, in predictable ways, but existing at random. Randomness is not the enemy you think it is. Unpredictability is.

If the Great British Pound suddenly disappeared without explanation that might be random (oh wait, atomic particles do that all the time).
But not very likely (unless you are a Scot).

but wait, they exist in galaxies in beautiful, flowing order (the Galaxies at random, flying apart and colliding together -- there's one colliding with ours right now - check it out-- don't bother to duck.

Or maybe it is as a crazy friend of mine used to say " It's all fixed -- like Baseball."
  • #129
  • May 13, 2014 12:29am May 13, 2014 12:29am
Quoting victor_ray
If i have a the power to see a "full world buy and sell volumes of a certain currency" I would run a few trial. Trial #1: I need to clear the myth that "if forex is fair as it say it would no one should have the power to MOVE the market..at least not 100 pip up and down like toys". All these time I would assume 5 banks working together to destroy...3 bank... If one bank can move price up and down at will which is "unfair and then the bank will be rich..since you move the price.." As of now it's believe by everyone that no "one in this world can...
Fair enough and that is a logical response. But it also takes less effort than you might think to manipulate the market, just concentrated volume at a certain time for only 60 seconds is all it takes to do it, it's like literally hacking the machines that values everything. But now that we now that information, can we use it to our advantage? sure, it's not hard at all, you just have to have to know how things work and they start to make sense. And you would be able to even profit from manipulation, a weird thing when most are being burned by it, but you'll get use to it.

I trade a mix of technical Analysis from Wyckoff, VSA and VPA, and Order flow trading So My view of things might be a little different than the way you see it. The whole picture of the market is what you want, , the entire thing,and then you'll see it's not random at all. Wyckoff said that you must always try to trade a stock that is stronger than the index, and since we're trading FX it's would be one of the majors against the USD but which one?. The answers you're looking for cannot be found on one chart, that's like trading in a tunnel. Which currencies were bought the most an hour ago, or a day, or 4 hours ago? that's a question that you can also find the answer to and then the whole picture start to assemble itself. Maybe I might start a thread if I am still on FF one of these days and talk about a few things and get some ideas from a few traders on here, but for now I'm happy to just post back and forth.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #130
  • May 13, 2014 1:08am May 13, 2014 1:08am
Quoting saneblane
Victor let me ask you a simple question and answer honestly. If you had the power to know which currencies were bought and sold the most would you still consider FX random, or the ability to get that information, would you still be singing the same song you're singing now?
you only know what WAS bought and sold the most, you can not predict the future. And, if you could it would be easy to prove.
tradewith60
  • #131
  • Edited 1:59am May 13, 2014 1:19am | Edited 1:59am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} you only know what WAS bought and sold the most, you can not predict the future. And, if you could it would be easy to prove.
What was bought and sold the most have a bigger impact on future prices than most realize. You believe that the market is random so this might be a little over your head. What was bought and sold the most is very important in any analysis, which currencies are burning through liquidity the most is where the money is heading and where the money is heading is where the price is going to go up, simple as that. It's not rocket science, it's just the way the market works.

What is more important is what is being bought right now and that is the most important thing to me, and trumps any other form of analysis that I have learned or seen. You have to learn how the market works before you can understand these things, first. If you keep believing that the market is random, you'll never learn anything else. There is nothing to prove no one is talking about "predicting" the future here, I am sharing my thought process of how and when I pick trades. If it's useful to you that's fine, if you think it's nonsense that's fine to, I could care less.Good luck with your trading.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #132
  • Edited 3:10am May 13, 2014 2:54am | Edited 3:10am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} What was bought and sold the most have a bigger impact on future prices than most realize. You believe that the market is random so this might be a little over your head. What was bought and sold the most is very important in any analysis, which currencies are burning through liquidity the most is where the money is heading and where the money is heading is where the price is going to go up, simple as that. It's not rocket science, it's just the way the market works. What is more important is what is being bought right now and that is the...
Once again I think everyone here is defining randomness differently lol...

My definition is that as long as there is a uncertainty in the outcome (not just due to white noise), it should be considered random. For practical purposes how I understand you is that you think randomness means there is no way to predict consistently what is going to happen. That is not true, you can still predict consistently what is going to happen over a large number of observations.

Take for example a dice. We all agree that the outcome of a dice roll is random*** don't we? You cannot predict if the next roll is 6 but you still consistently predict outcomes say over 600 rolls, 100 (+- a bit of error) of them will be 6.

In this sense, even if I can predict consistently with 80% accuracy what is going to happen next in the market, the market can still be random. It just means I have good information on the underlying distribution of the randomness. But this is different from saying I can predict exactly what is going to happen next... because I can't! I can only predict the outcomes over a large sample - this is characteristic of randomness.

By now you should realise that arguing that the market is non-random and deterministic is really fighting a losing battle; it's possible to win but you need really really strong evidence.

***

A caveat: You can actually argue that the dice roll is deterministic, if you knew all the variables such as angle of throw, roughness of dice, how it lands, you can actually predict the outcome of the roll before it lands - this is characteristic of a CLOSED system. The market is an OPEN and DYNAMIC system - new information (unknown at current time period) is always streaming in, buyers and sellers are always entering and exiting the market (whims and fancy of human nature) - it is nearly impossible that such a system doesn't at least exhibit some randomness EVEN IF you knew every single piece of past information available on the planet. Given that none of us probably do the randomness arises both from the system itself and from our ignorance.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #133
  • May 13, 2014 3:22am May 13, 2014 3:22am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Once again I think everyone here is defining randomness differently lol... My definition is that as long as there is a uncertainty in the outcome (not just due to white noise), it should be considered random. For practical purposes how I understand you is that you think randomness means there is no way to predict consistently what is going to happen. That is not true, you can still predict consistently what is going to happen over a large number of observations. Take for example a dice. We all agree that the outcome of a dice roll is random***...
I kind of see where you are coming from this time around, and will leave it at that.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #134
  • May 13, 2014 3:48am May 13, 2014 3:48am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} What was bought and sold the most have a bigger impact on future prices than most realize. You believe that the market is random so this might be a little over your head. What was bought and sold the most is very important in any analysis, which currencies are burning through liquidity the most is where the money is heading and where the money is heading is where the price is going to go up, simple as that. It's not rocket science, it's just the way the market works. What is more important is what is being bought right now and that is the...
I don't need to learn anything and it's not 'over my head' you're the one saying you can predict prices but can not give any evidence of it. You're deluding yourself. From what you have said you have no idea of how the market works.
tradewith60
  • #135
  • May 13, 2014 3:51am May 13, 2014 3:51am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Once again I think everyone here is defining randomness differently lol... My definition is that as long as there is a uncertainty in the outcome (not just due to white noise), it should be considered random. For practical purposes how I understand you is that you think randomness means there is no way to predict consistently what is going to happen. That is not true, you can still predict consistently what is going to happen over a large number of observations. Take for example a dice. We all agree that the outcome of a dice roll is random***...
at least somebody is making sense in here.
tradewith60
  • #136
  • May 13, 2014 4:13am May 13, 2014 4:13am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} at least somebody is making sense in here.

60 do you know how the market works? if it's random (which I agree) how can you determine its operation.
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #137
  • Edited 4:52am May 13, 2014 4:17am | Edited 4:52am
Lol You really are an idiot. When you place a trade what do you think you're doing? You're a waste of time man, I don't know how the market works and that's fine, but you know so I am glad for you. Tell me what I have said that doesn't make any sense, if you can do that then you might seem like you at least know a little. Enlighten me and correct what I have said please set me straight. Hahahah

This is speculation, and speculation is based on prediction, since you don't predict prices I want to know what you are doing?

Everyone of us make predictions idiot, that's the whole point of this thing. If you go long you are predicting higher prices, and if you go short lower prices, Isn't this true? I am asking because I don't know anything. So if the answer is yes and it is true, aren't you making predictions too? Lol you are without a doubt a fool.

Trading is all prediction, you make predictions and I make prediction. Something as basic as that, you're trying to dispute? Lmao lol i can't stop laughing at this guy. You could get away with thinking the market is random, based on your skill level one can excuse that. But to make fun of me for making predictions in trading is the most stupid thing I have ever seen posted on FF. And for the record I want to learn everything, so I study and trade everyday because that's how you get better. But since you don't want to learn anything I take that as meaning you already know everything, so please correct the things I said, that would help me a lot.


Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I don't need to learn anything and it's not 'over my head' you're the one saying you can predict prices but can not give any evidence of it. You're deluding yourself. From what you have said you have no idea of how the market works.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #138
  • May 13, 2014 4:27am May 13, 2014 4:27am
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} 60 do you know how the market works? if it's random (which I agree) how can you determine its operation.
What do you mean "determine it's operation".
tradewith60
  • #139
  • May 13, 2014 4:36am May 13, 2014 4:36am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} What do you mean "determine it's operation".


settled on how it works in a random environment..
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #140
  • May 13, 2014 4:51am May 13, 2014 4:51am
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} settled on how it works in a random environment..
are you asking me how it is possible to make profit from a random market?
tradewith60
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