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EURUSD

  • #896,841
  • May 11, 2014 2:04pm May 11, 2014 2:04pm
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  • #896,842
  • May 11, 2014 2:17pm May 11, 2014 2:17pm
I am taking covering this…...

+150, +150 and +170 pips:
risked 10% per trade (100 pips)
= +47% (small account)

Now wait for another chance.
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Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #896,843
  • May 11, 2014 2:19pm May 11, 2014 2:19pm
Just open long position 1.3758. SL 1.3740, Target Open. Expect flat market during monday trading.
  • #896,844
  • May 11, 2014 3:00pm May 11, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting egkid
{quote} @What price?
Avg 8670ish .
It scaled up, first entry was bad ...you know .....
  • #896,845
  • May 11, 2014 3:30pm May 11, 2014 3:30pm
Hello everyone, (btw I am relatively new in trading). A bullish engulfing pattern has formed at the end of Friday 9th May close on the hourly chart. So I have entered a long position placing my stop 30 pips below the pattern / rising trend line. Has anybody else noticed this and placed a trade long at this position. From what i understand the trend line is long and strong and engulfing patterns are very reliably for reverses.
  • #896,846
  • May 11, 2014 4:09pm May 11, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting DasPips
{quote} ben stratton's signal service via skype same thing always.
i must be out of the loop. i guess thats what cloggie meant.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #896,847
  • May 11, 2014 4:33pm May 11, 2014 4:33pm
she closed below the last 20 days low, also a 20/80 daily bar…many will look to go long or at least to cover….me think
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #896,848
  • May 11, 2014 4:41pm May 11, 2014 4:41pm
Tone of the thread seems to say it will go lower before turning....
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #896,849
  • May 11, 2014 4:59pm May 11, 2014 4:59pm
Quoting Citiboy
Tone of the thread seems to say it will go lower before turning....
maybe turning before going lower?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #896,850
  • May 11, 2014 5:06pm May 11, 2014 5:06pm
Quoting pedro319
GBPNZD long Reason: After 50% Ret on weekly chart, 61,8 on Daily and now 50% on 4 hours I think there is potential for a 600 pips move upwards. Traders can join in by looking for retracement on hourly chart and preferably confluence with some pivot or /and Fib extensions. This is a slightly longer (duration) trade that might take several weeks however R:R is very good from here as you can choose in which time frame low you want to place your stop loss. Also NZDUSD looks set to go further down. Risk: 100 pips max,(4 hours chart)...
Long trades in GBPNZD cost dearly in negative swap, particularly over the long period suggested (unless you are using a swap-free account).
The opposite of what KillerWhale is doing with TRY.

The daily ATR(20) on NZDUSD is 61 pips, hardly hundreds of pips and again the swap is costly.
  • #896,851
  • Edited 6:40pm May 11, 2014 6:25pm | Edited 6:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} we dont enough information atm. i am speculating. 3561 is not confirmed. 3755 may not be exact. its just the area to anticipate the bounce. i posted the Lm for .8xxx, its at 3966.. the sequence level below is 3746.5.. its in a posted chart. its what i meant about 2 humps and this may be the smaller third one. if one thinks 1876 was a b/o and these since are the bounces after b/o. Friday's move may be just a smaller move, the way the larger move may end up. so early week if we do bounce, 2869 ish and drop.. it may be part of that sequence...a...
3855/56 seems better now.. in normal times i would wait for 3885 or higher. now i am not convinced, its still w/o a bear target confirmed. i dont know if she even will bounce. 3811 from friday's low, is half way
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #896,852
  • May 11, 2014 6:29pm May 11, 2014 6:29pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Nice trade KW, I figure EURTRY won't bottom out until end of 2014, much more room left for carry.
As long as they keep their interest @ 12.5% I'm ok.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #896,853
  • May 11, 2014 6:36pm May 11, 2014 6:36pm
Quoting JohnIsShort
I feel like I'm the only one in the world who doesnt buy into the story that EURUSD is being driven up by flows. So it really sucks reading any kind of articles and research, since they are not talking to me.. its flows flows flows (with real-rates explanation trending up on their choices) I just tune out reading all this stuff.
This is the net flows that everyone keeps talking about that drove the EURUSD to this levels.
Now that is excluding reserves distribution by other central banks and such but even so its not enough.
It is a big hyped explanation, that explains absolutly nothing. Those are in Billions of euros. So less than 600 Bn in 4 years!! Spot EURUSD DOES 600 BN IN TURNOVER IN ONE DAY ALONE.
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  • #896,854
  • May 11, 2014 6:37pm May 11, 2014 6:37pm
not married to this scalp.. L 3750. risking the 6 pips for the 105
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #896,855
  • May 11, 2014 6:43pm May 11, 2014 6:43pm
Quoting JohnIsShort
{quote} This is the net flows that everyone keeps talking about that drove the EURUSD to this levels. Now that is excluding reserves distribution by other central banks and such but even so its not enough. It is a big hyped explanation, that explains absolutly nothing. Those are in Billions of euros. So less than 600 Bn in 4 years!! Spot EURUSD DOES 600 BN IN TURNOVER IN ONE DAY ALONE. {image}

600bn in flows is significant. The fact that EURUSD turnover may do 600bn in turnover per day is "gross" turnover. The biggest most consistent deals done in the market are usually hedges that are routinely rolled using a forward swap. So 500mm on a hedge may be done in terms of volume, but theres no net spot transaction because its a hedge, a combination of selling a currency spot vs buying 3 months from now or however long the hedge is.

New net buying or selling in the market is significant, even if it was only another billion EUR in one 24 hour span.

Examples-

New Net Inflows(Unhedged):
Central Bank Diversification
Inflows in Periphery Assets
Mercedes Repatriating USD Dollars into Euros from Cars sold In the USA

Gross Inflows, But Net No Change(Volume is accounted for, but the deals dont move the market) (These tend to be a huge proportion of daily volume):
Coca Cola Rolling Hedges on EUR Estimated Quarterly EUR revenue
Yahoo Rolling Hedges on Alibaba equity stake (CNY exposure)
Blackrock Fund Rolling Hedges on Nikkei Exposure
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #896,856
  • May 11, 2014 6:52pm May 11, 2014 6:52pm
Risk Trend signals are not showing up in SPX. Longer term Risk Signals (including Libor) are elevated.

More relevant signals are showing up in Swiss. They purchased a large amount of cheap Euro's back at 1.20...and have been staunch in holding that peg.

While ECB appears to be looking at negative interest rates (along with Swiss), the Swiss control the BIS...and Swiss has mentioned that they are willing to control the peg as long as necessary.

This won't show up in EurChf...but it does show up in other studies.

At this point in time, we are seeing a breach in certain areas of Swiss vs Japan and Euro...the volatility is extreme...yet the overall dynamic is beginning to surface..
  • #896,857
  • May 11, 2014 7:28pm May 11, 2014 7:28pm
Time for me to go long with a tight stoploss.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #896,858
  • May 11, 2014 7:32pm May 11, 2014 7:32pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} 600bn in flows is significant. The fact that EURUSD turnover may do 600bn in turnover per day is "gross" turnover. The biggest most consistent deals done in the market are usually hedges that are routinely rolled using a forward swap. So 500mm on a hedge may be done in terms of volume, but theres no net spot transaction because its a hedge, a combination of selling a currency spot vs buying 3 months from now or however long the hedge is. New net buying or selling in the market is significant, even if it was only another...
I understand that but I disagree. Inflows are meaningless, and that number already includes peripheral equities/bonds. Yes a large block of 1 Bn€ could influence the price for 5 minutes or 1h depending if it was a busy market or not. But thats about it.
Repartition flows from manufactures are even less meaningful. Currencies are dominated by speculative flows, (although I agree with you that part of the volume is just rolling over existing positions), the volume of speculative flows are so enourmous it removes any chance of any other kind of repartition or balance of payments flows to have any part on decision of the direction of it.
EURUSD could be at 1.20 and with current account surplus, inflows, and whatnot and still not even go a little bit higher. If there are inflows it only means that people see Europe as cheap, even with a high valued currency! Thats it! It doesnt tell you anything else.
Flows are just a convenient way to explain it. If your interest rate differentials are not explaining the moves and you work at Morgan Stanley you go for the next thing avaible to you and that is flows.
  • #896,859
  • May 11, 2014 7:38pm May 11, 2014 7:38pm
I'm not trying to directed it at you citiboy, I know you are not just using the flows for your bet on USD strenght. And yes you may even be right to see euro weakeness against USD.

That is a chart of the inflows into the euro area everyone keeps talking about on the sell-side. I was directing it more to the sell-side research that I complety disagree with. Those guys are incredible out-of-touch with the markets.
  • #896,860
  • May 11, 2014 7:40pm May 11, 2014 7:40pm
Long the euro I am
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