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  • #896,821
  • Edited 1:10pm May 11, 2014 12:59pm | Edited 1:10pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} sell in May and go astray...current levels or 13723 may be a good place for a bounce otherwise 13700/13682 ..unless a gap up...we'll see
So if FX a zero sum game? Of course it is. Just read John Forman’s article on the difference between asset markets and contract markets. FX like all futures markets (including ironically enough those for the Dow and S&P) is a contract based market. You own no assets so you cannot derive any intrinsic appreciation from your investment. Your gains do indeed come from other participants losses.


The foreign exchange market is a zero sum game[5] in which there are many experienced, well-capitalized professional traders (e.g. working for banks) who can devote their attention full-time to trading. An inexperienced retail trader will have a significant information disadvantage compared to these traders.


[5] Douch, Nick (1989). The Economics of Foreign Exchange. Greenwood Press. pp. 87–90. ISBN 978-0-89930-499-1.
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #896,822
  • May 11, 2014 1:09pm May 11, 2014 1:09pm
Quoting Lacunoide
{quote} So if FX a zero sum game? Of course it is. Just read John Forman’s article on the difference between asset markets and contract markets. FX like all futures markets (including ironically enough those for the Dow and S&P) is a contract based market. You own no assets so you cannot derive any intrinsic appreciation from your investment. Your gains do indeed come from other participants losses.
check Oanda open positions and you get a different picture...
  • #896,823
  • May 11, 2014 1:22pm May 11, 2014 1:22pm
Quoting Lacunoide
{quote} Time to sell :-) Even on myfxbook now the majority is buying! I think that it is a good time to sell. Sell in May and go away.
The question
From where
To where
  • #896,824
  • May 11, 2014 1:38pm May 11, 2014 1:38pm
Quoting egkid
{quote} The question From where To where
From reistance to support obviously , and depending on the timeframe You trade .
  • #896,825
  • May 11, 2014 1:41pm May 11, 2014 1:41pm
I feel like I'm the only one in the world who doesnt buy into the story that EURUSD is being driven up by flows. So it really sucks reading any kind of articles and research, since they are not talking to me.. its flows flows flows (with real-rates explanation trending up on their choices) I just tune out reading all this stuff.
  • #896,826
  • May 11, 2014 1:43pm May 11, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} good observation by eyes of an owl.
Thx
What are you looking at?
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #896,827
  • May 11, 2014 1:47pm May 11, 2014 1:47pm
Quoting yanitsa
{quote} From reistance to support obviously , and depending on the timeframe You trade .
If you can define support and resistant in your trading tf then u r successful trader
  • #896,828
  • May 11, 2014 1:51pm May 11, 2014 1:51pm
Quoting egkid
{quote} If you can define support and resistant in your trading tf then u r successful trader
Well , good MM is needed too .
I use software for support /resistance .......but with time one finds the software redundant .....software gives extra comfort though
  • #896,829
  • May 11, 2014 2:09pm May 11, 2014 2:09pm
Quoting Lacunoide
{quote} Time to sell :-) Even on myfxbook now the majority is buying! I think that it is a good time to sell. Sell in May and go away. Buy again St Ledger day.
The saying you half quote relates to the stock market
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #896,830
  • May 11, 2014 2:12pm May 11, 2014 2:12pm
Quoting yanitsa
{quote} Well , good MM is needed too . I use software for support /resistance .......but with time one finds the software redundant .....software gives extra comfort though
Your eyes are way better than a software.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #896,831
  • May 11, 2014 2:14pm May 11, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Larry, if this market has became so desperate to this point , 1.48 becomes a necessity! Its funny you are making the same mistake as citiboy on " whatever it takes" , the euro was trading at 1.21 back then ....
Hmm, maybe I said it wrong, what I mean: this is not yet as crystal clear wording as in 2012, and therefor we will see a move upwards. Maybe higher as last week, maybe much higher. But: Draghi has shown he is willing to draw a line and if he doesn't want to lose his credibility he will sometime and at some level draw the line. So I cannot trade the 1.47 now. Nothing is certain...
Fail better.
  • #896,832
  • May 11, 2014 2:26pm May 11, 2014 2:26pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Your eyes are way better than a software.
Mine re not ......maybe someone elses are .
Sometimes ( like last week at 1.40) they make it so obvious that no software is needed ....in fact my software wasnt giving any resiastance there .But with or without Draghi , it wasnt going to break high , there was no technical resistance and still market sleeping around same levels for weeks .Well, it should go down then , and so it did .My guess is for 1.35 , thats software level in fact .
LOL
  • #896,833
  • May 11, 2014 2:43pm May 11, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Hmm, maybe I said it wrong, what I mean: this is not yet as crystal clear wording as in 2012, and therefor we will see a move upwards. Maybe higher as last week, maybe much higher. But: Draghi has shown he is willing to draw a line and if he doesn't want to lose his credibility he will sometime and at some level draw the line. So I cannot trade the 1.47 now. Nothing is certain...
Ah, i got it a bit upside down. I think your observation is quite accurate, he seemed annoyed that day and more when they asked him about the rate. But, generally speaking - there was nothing new he said. The statement was a copy- paste from the old one. The $1.47/$1.48 is my personal speculation or opinion, and by no means i'm using the previous or this analysis to justify the target ... in other words, what i'm trying to say ' Why all this noise, he has not said anything?! '

IMHO, a line must be drawn between Draghi and the ECB. He is the president of this institution but cannot really force a board member to vote in a specific direction. Having said that, both Draghi and the ECB are willing to intervene in the exchange rate - if the lower trend of inflation continued. The logic behind this has to do with energy prices- the higher exchange rate, the lower energy prices gets and the lower inflation print continue .. some type of a vicious circle! So, for this case an intervention would make sense, which shouldn't count as verbal intervention!

So, i think the line has been drawn already! This will make the exchange rate somehow directly related to 'Oil and heating prices and food'. I do not see any energy prices moving in the near term, so nothing is there. But. since Europe is about to start enjoying spring and summer, which means more food and beverages consumption by locals and tourism ... inflation should be ticking higher till September at least!

I hope this make sense
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #896,834
  • Edited 2:58pm May 11, 2014 2:45pm | Edited 2:58pm
GBPNZD long

Reason:
After 50% Ret on weekly chart, 61,8 on Daily and now 50% on 4 hours I think there is potential for a 600 pips move upwards. Traders can join in by looking for retracement on hourly chart and preferably confluence with some pivot or /and Fib extensions. This is a slightly longer (duration) trade that might take several weeks however R:R is very good from here as you can choose in which time frame low you want to place your stop loss.
Also NZDUSD looks set to go further down.
Risk: 100 pips max,(4 hours chart) so adapt your size position accordingly.
Note: If it doesn't work I will still try to enter long again lower.
Warning for newbies: This is a very volatile pair that will move hundreds of pips in one day, so beware and trade responsibly.

I can post some charts in case anyone needs them.

GL
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #896,835
  • May 11, 2014 3:08pm May 11, 2014 3:08pm
Quoting pedro319
GBPNZD long Reason: After 50% Ret on weekly chart, 61,8 on Daily and now 50% on 4 hours I think there is potential for a 600 pips move upwards. Traders can join in by looking for retracement on hourly chart and preferably confluence with some pivot or /and Fib extensions. This is a slightly longer (duration) trade that might take several weeks however R:R is very good from here as you can choose in which time frame low you want to place your stop loss. Also NZDUSD looks set to go further down. Risk: 100 pips max,(4 hours chart) so adapt your size...

How about EUR/NZD .Do You trade it ?
  • #896,836
  • May 11, 2014 3:17pm May 11, 2014 3:17pm
ALL MAJOR PLAYERS SPEAK ABOUT SELLING AND I AM REALLY WONDERING TO CLOSE MY LONGS OR IT IS A BIG TRAP

Long EUR positions will be difficult to hold if ECB cuts says UBS
Barclays' Trade Of The Week: Sell EUR/USD
Citi research says there were 4 main changes to the statement and, yes, ECB action is coming in June

ANY IDEA?
  • #896,837
  • May 11, 2014 3:18pm May 11, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting yanitsa
{quote} How about EUR/NZD .Do You trade it ?
I won't trade it because I am already involved in GBPNZD.
Pretty similar imo. This one has a little bullish pattern on 1 hour chart after .786 Ret on 4 hours but here no reversal candle yet which is why stop has to be slightly bigger, ideally a candlestick pattern from here is what we want to see next.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #896,838
  • May 11, 2014 3:36pm May 11, 2014 3:36pm
Quoting arash66110
ALL MAJOR PLAYERS SPEAK ABOUT SELLING AND I AM REALLY WONDERING TO CLOSE MY LONGS OR IT IS A BIG TRAP Long EUR positions will be difficult to hold if ECB cuts says UBS Barclays' Trade Of The Week: Sell EUR/USD Citi research says there were 4 main changes to the statement and, yes, ECB action is coming in June ANY IDEA?
It depends on which Time frame you are working on. Nobody will be sure whether it's time to close longs or not. You can wait for retracement and assess how strong will it be and then make a decision. Have a look at my analysis if you would like.
Cheers.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #896,839
  • May 11, 2014 3:41pm May 11, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} I won't trade it because I am already involved in GBPNZD. Pretty similar imo. This one has a little bullish pattern on 1 hour chart after .786 Ret on 4 hours but here no reversal candle yet which is why stop has to be slightly bigger, ideally a candlestick pattern from here is what we want to see next.
Thanks !
I have short NZD/USD for the record .
  • #896,840
  • May 11, 2014 3:49pm May 11, 2014 3:49pm
Quoting yanitsa
{quote} Thanks ! I have short NZD/USD for the record .
@What price?
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