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  • #896,741
  • Edited 2:53pm May 10, 2014 2:41pm | Edited 2:53pm
folks still talk about euro going above 1.4. I just do not see how it can go above 1.4 that easily and go much above.

EJ clearly broke the up support channel line of yen, while UJ is still hovering around the up channel line. In the following weekly chart, EJ is on its way to 138 and 136 subsequently. UJ will bounce between 101 and 103.

when EJ reaches 138, a bouncing around of UJ between 101 and 103 will give an EU range of 1.3660 - 1.3400.
when EJ reaches 136, a bouncing of UJ between 101 and 103 will give an EU range of 1.3460 - 1.3200.

folks, keep on talking about 1.4, 1.41, 1.42, 1.43, 1.44, 1.45, if you like.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ- i7860-TDA_211.png Size: 516 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ- i7860-TDA_212.png Size: 297 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #896,742
  • May 10, 2014 2:41pm May 10, 2014 2:41pm
Quoting Vachus
There are three reasons why the Euro has to surge: 1- Every time the ECB cut interest rates, markets respond buying the Euro ... the last rate cut, the Euro traded at $1.35 before the announcement! 2- Even if the ECB announces ' EU monetary easing' as aggressive as the Japanese program, markets will respond by buying the Euro again ... Why?! Because European markets is not like the American ones, the ECB has to do it through the Banks. Just like Carney did in Britain! They keep on printing money, while the pound surges. Fair enough, no?! What was...
"""""""""""""""""""""""""""

All correct , but market can allways digest 400-500 pips corection , without changing general direction . It would be too easy if it was going one direction forever .LOL
  • #896,743
  • May 10, 2014 2:44pm May 10, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting ffleo
folks still talk about euro going above 1.4. I just do not see how it can go above 1.4 that easily and go much above. EJ clearly broke the up support channel line of yen, while UJ is still hovering around the up channel line. In the following weekly chart, EJ is on its way to 138 and 136 subsequently. UJ will bounce between 101 and 103. when EJ reaches 138, a bouncing around of UJ between 101 and 103 will give a range of EU in the range of 1.3660 - 1.3400. when EJ reaches 136, a bouncing of UJ between 101 and 103 will give a range of EU in the range...

"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
Oh no , enough ranging, please . Let's have a trend and all make a
fortune!
  • #896,744
  • May 10, 2014 2:45pm May 10, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Something worth considering Clear resistance breaking monthly 61.8 level.Notice 50% =35 Very likely retrace.On intellectual level you are correct we are in up trend but there are huge retraces as well. I trade swings.To me trend is irrelevant. {image}
I haven't seen this time frame in a long time ... i understand, but i trade directions! It gets tricky sometimes.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #896,745
  • May 10, 2014 2:50pm May 10, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting yanitsa
{quote} """"""""""""""""""""""""""" All correct , but market can allways digest 400-500 pips corection , without changing general direction . It would be too easy if it was going one direction forever .LOL
If you don't understand the projected direction and actual direction, you won't know if you should risk a buy or a risk a sell ... you would be simply throwing money to bet on chances and hopes, you choose right!

Anyway, I'm not telling anyone do this or that, simply clarifying my position on the matter .. in the end, price does what price always do - Moving!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #896,746
  • May 10, 2014 2:58pm May 10, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} If you don't understand the projected direction and actual direction, you won't know if you should risk a buy or a risk a sell ... you would be simply throwing money to bet on chances and hopes, you choose right! Anyway, I'm not telling anyone do this or that, simply clarifying my position on the matter .. in the end, price does what price always do - Moving!
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

I got what You mean ......
  • #896,747
  • May 10, 2014 2:58pm May 10, 2014 2:58pm
$1.3700 - $1.36800 is the place where it should turn, beyond this - it will take more time and could slide more ..

* if price doesn't turn there, i have no idea where it will turn back up
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #896,748
  • May 10, 2014 2:59pm May 10, 2014 2:59pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} yes. My chart tells me to short it. {image}
like I said long time ago, 1.4 is a wall there. If it is knocked down over the head by the ceiling, it will go down to check the floor.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #896,749
  • May 10, 2014 3:15pm May 10, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} like I said long time ago, 1.4 is a wall there. If it is knocked down over the head by the ceiling, it will go down to check the floor.
Now here is the tricky part .....where is the flooor .0.82 ?Too far .....
  • #896,750
  • May 10, 2014 3:35pm May 10, 2014 3:35pm
The euro is finished. Just as I thought right when the sell off starts the retails start buying. I'm hoping we get a retrace back to 1.3815-1.3880 area. But unsure that'll happen before we go down lower. Monthly is so overbought, it's going to get nasty in the next few months.
  • #896,751
  • May 10, 2014 6:35pm May 10, 2014 6:35pm
Again, can't see any justification on EU big drop except a classic stops hunt. Germany want 1,4xx and 1.5xx before end of 2014 for its economy growth and to increase economy pressure on the rest of EU zone countries and repeat Greece scenario, yes, it is in the favour of Germany to spread economy disasters around EU zone so it to gain more control and to enforce more banking centralize policy on those countries. Also, Ukraine joining the EU zone will be announced soon which should start the sequence of demolishing the Russian kingdom and more control to Germany for sure...Hitler dream rising 2014
  • #896,752
  • May 10, 2014 9:34pm May 10, 2014 9:34pm
waiting...for reaction.

Risk trends for DXY not in place, yet.

Overnight EuLibor...longer term appears ready to break....but prices went up, not down.

05-09-20140.20357 %
05-08-20140.20714 %
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  • #896,753
  • May 10, 2014 10:45pm May 10, 2014 10:45pm
Quoting Vachus
$1.3700 - $1.36800 is the place where it should turn, beyond this - it will take more time and could slide more .. * if price doesn't turn there, i have no idea where it will turn back up
Agree, in that zone i am going to look where to close my shorts, and gonna go long with ls 1.3643, ps about 1.4080, RR almost 1:10:wink:
(It's not an advise, use your own head..)
  • #896,754
  • May 11, 2014 12:00am May 11, 2014 12:00am
i may buy monday on a scalp. and sell after 3885, or above in the red box. Lm was not closed below at 3755
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #896,755
  • May 11, 2014 12:57am May 11, 2014 12:57am
Quoting gatorinla
i may buy monday on a scalp. and sell after 3885, or above in the red box. Lm was not closed below at 3755 {image}



Hi Gator,
Check your LM ratio, it doesn't match UM ratio. It should give you something 1.3751x not 1.37551.
  • #896,756
  • May 11, 2014 1:45am May 11, 2014 1:45am
Dunno what happened to the euro but I'm gonna buy tomorrow and every 100 pips down I'm gonna buy more.
Somewhere I'm gonna profit from this.

In the meantime I have these great positions where I bought Turkish Lira and getting interest every day that is enough to live a lavish life.
It's comparable to have bought GBP/YEN back in 2008 when GBP interest was 4.5%, only now Turkish interest = 12.5%.

Now I only need a few ladies to complete the fun.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #896,757
  • May 11, 2014 2:00am May 11, 2014 2:00am
Quoting KillerWhale
Dunno what happened to the euro but I'm gonna buy tomorrow and every 100 pips down I'm gonna buy more. Somewhere I'm gonna profit from this. In the meantime I have these great positions where I bought Turkish Lira and getting interest every day that is enough to live a lavish life. It's comparable to have bought GBP/YEN back in 2008 when GBP interest was 4.5%, only now Turkish interest = 12.5%. Now I only need a few ladies to complete the fun.
And it's not too late to invest in the Turkish Lira, I think there is a good chance that USD/TRY will go down another 800 pips in the next few weeks.
We'll see.
I have to refill my glass of champagne now and after that go to sleep for a while.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #896,758
  • May 11, 2014 2:17am May 11, 2014 2:17am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} And it's not too late to invest in the Turkish Lira, I think there is a good chance that USD/TRY will go down another 800 pips in the next few weeks. We'll see. I have to refill my glass of champagne now and after that go to sleep for a while.
See you tomorrow girls and guys!
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #896,759
  • May 11, 2014 2:29am May 11, 2014 2:29am
Oh and I almost forgot, shorting EUR/AUD also proved to be a profitable trade,
I've been saying that for days.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #896,760
  • May 11, 2014 2:39am May 11, 2014 2:39am
Quoting MarianneOslo
It is not a day trade currency but patience will give results.
Trading is almost never a oneway street and nothing is certain. But: I think you are right. As long as one doesn't have to pay swap and is prepared to wait another two or more years. Good post!
Fail better.
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