EURUSD

my experience tells me that that very rarely works if combined with contrarian mind. and the point is to miss the top/bottom with as little harm done as possible. and then once you get into it right, it pays back dozens of times.

for example, last 3-4 weeks i've been just shorting EURUSD&GBPUSD (except for scalps, but that's not from this story) because i expect it to turn south around these levels. i had situations when i took 20-70 pips profit and 15 pips losses. for longer term positions i consider that BE. but, once it moves really and me in short, it will pay back really good with hundreds of pips.

my point is > it's almost impossible to avoid being kicked out when on top/bottom. Wyckoff wrote alot about it ('shakeouts' was his term, if i remember correctly). in my opinion, we have 2 options:

1) suffer considerable DD for considerable time (few weeks)
2) suffer a few minor losses for one big gain

Placed murphy bed in trading office. It works well!

Just wanted to sum my day up. Note that I'd decided very wisely to add to my position right before this..



Some lessons you have to learn more than once.

only few traders here ,let's c what the book saying about e/u for next week
Many will try ride the down move and add sell BUT bulls on the way so many will lose and silly guys here fighting see i told u we go up No we go down
"Mess for many call them self trader" , then Boom down to his final target so the losers are we going up or down
Make ur plan and no rush bulls and bears both can make green if play it well.

Well same for me I took a long position ahead of the weekend.

We may still see a visit of the EURUSD to the 1.3700 for next week, because the bearish momentum is still strong.

watching rates

Waiting for euro to hit 1.3712.

Any smart person around?

1.3712 will be the right place for a long. The next two levels are: 1.3500 and 1.3400. You may like not to risk more than what needs to be. You already know first few hours of a new week can take it anywhere hitting sls.

If you wait a little may see 1.500.

Euro/CHF will rise when the market interest rent rise. CHF is now the only currency which have not fallen back to normal levels. am waiting for this CHF to fall a lot but it may take some time if the swiss dont do anything.

Everyone should have some long EUR/CHF in thir account. It is very little risk since it is pegged at 1,2 and after two years the swiss are able to keep the limit. It is patience but one day it will go very fast.The swiss may be fed up beeing the only currency still so strong and lift the peg higher.This hurt the swiss export.
There is no interest rate in CHF. When money is seem safe and no expectations of rise in the currency the flow will go to other currencies. This must be the safest trade with only 1% possibility to rise. It is not a day trade currency but patience will give results.
WE saw this clearly in 2007 when the market interest rate rose and the CHF was falling sharply. In my opinion the decline of the pound and the rise in the CHF and YEN made so many inbalances in the market and made the financial crisis i 2007. First the pound declines sharply also the CHF.After this so many oans in Europe were currency loans in CHF which then rose sharply. The loans dobbeled and peolple were not able to pay for their loans. It is a strong korrlation between the pound and the CHF. Now the pound is rising again the CHF should fall.

In 2007 the euro/CHF was 1,65 now 1,22. This also eksplains the fall in the property markets in Europa. People with currency loans were not able to pay their loans.



I belive in a much lower euro/USD due to fudamental reasons. I have problems seeing the difference i ECBs speech this time then last week. It is only words.

from daily penny

The price the euro paid yesterday for having a Central Bank President like Mario Draghi, was quite steep! Well. For a while on Thursday morning, it appeared there would be no drama at the ECB meeting, and traders took their cue from that, and began pushing the euro higher and higher, and soon it looked like it would reach 1.40. But then the trap door was sprung underneath the euro by ECB President Draghi, in the press conference following the meeting. Draghi must have been genuflecting when he saw the euro around 1.40, because he pulled out a big gun, and said, "The ECB is comfortable with acting in June if needed". Uh-Oh, there went the no drama, and the rise of the euro!

Soon the euro was falling like a rock through the 1.39 handle it had held so strongly all week, and it was all because Mario Draghi decided to jawbone the currency lower. I've told you before that I don't believe that the ECB is interested in participating in the currency wars. This jawboning was simply to knock some of the bloom off the rose (euro) and leave the markets with questions.

Questions like: why June? And what does he plan to do? And hasn't he seen the recent Eurozone data showing strength, albeit nascent, but strength nonetheless? But he was not about to answer these questions. And the markets were left with no answers, and no reaction other than to mark down the euro, which is exactly what Draghi wanted!
So, do you think that Draghi was just greasing the tracks for additional stimulus in June, or was he simply jawboning the currency lower to keep it from hitting 1.40?. (from all that I read leading up to the ECB meeting, most observers were falling in line with the thought that if the euro hit 1.40, that it could really gap up from there very quickly!) I'm of the opinion that he was simply jawboning the currency lower. and just like at previous meetings when the thought was so prevailing in the markets that he would do something, and he didn't, the June meeting will play out the same way. Shame we have to wait until June, but again, this is part of his ploy folks. He knows that if he puts June out there, that the euro will have difficulty finding a bid to take it higher again until the June meeting passes, without additional stimulus. And then he can simply move the goal posts to say August. Eventually, the markets won't play this game with him any longer, and will decide to take the euro to wherever they wish. And before all this jawboning, they wished to take it higher!

Following Draghi's words, it shouldn't be a surprise to see an overextended move on EURUSD. I had been waiting for an entry long at 13770 for a while but it proved to be just too early. Clearly I am biased on this matter but I would like to stress on the fact that at 1.4 Draghi didn't feel the need to take actions which is the only fact we can discuss about. On June meeting, he said he is ok about doing something if needed. "If needed" gives an indication of the extent of his fears. He doesn't like to be told what to do and won't follow any external advice. On top of that, he likes to stress that as ECB governor he doesn't have any obligations to take actions on exchange rates simply because his mandate says so. France, on the other hand, wants to lower the high exchange rate damaging its exports. We have seen this scenario before and the only recurrent effect in recent history is to push the retail market in an aggressively bearish mood. I believe that if Draghi is really to take actions on the exchange rate it would be only to have some permanent effect on it such as lowering and narrowing the range channel. In this context, the problem I see now is in US. Atm the USD is weak due to US bond buying probably from China while equity markets take the hit, particularly tech stocks. EM are buying euros and capital flows are still backing EZ. In addition, as tapering unfolds USD may need some extra help from base currencies especially with a dove as FED governor. In the latest violent down move, we never saw the bulls once but bears looked clearly exhausted on Friday. PA can take the EURUSD up to 13723 (50% Fibonacci retracement from March 2014 high) and then 13700-13682 (lower end of uptrend channel from 2013 lows) in the near term but not without any bull attempt. At 13682 as well as current levels, bulls can get very aggressive because 1.4 is clearly an unfinished work and this could well be only the necessary correction to get to 1.40 or even 1.41 in the ST.

Hi

I think Eur/usd down to 1.3448

Does all brokers mt4 freeze during news? My does every time without exception. I use ic markets.. everything else is fine..

I can't see any fact behind EU move 250 pip without a very good reason or strong ECB action. Other than that, in my opinion this move was to crash all the long from the top (1398xxx, which been done by throwing a long red 2 candles without retrace.

In my opinion, EU still in up move toward 1.4xxx or even 1.5xxx, next week opening may be big move up to crash all the short during weekend , then maybe another wave down to clear the way before flying to 1.4xxx...... what do u think ?

Draghi Performs another Euro Conjuring Trick- http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/45042...#axzz31AxTPmt1


For a few minutes on Thursday, Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank’s president, lost his mesmerising grip over financial markets.
Currency traders reacted badly as he opened a press conference after the ECB governing council’s meeting in Brussels. The euro shot higher on the bank’s apparent inaction – even though its strength is exacerbating eurozone deflation dangers. Against the dollar the currency almost hit a three-year high of $1.40.

It was as if markets had lost faith in a central banker who two years ago prevented a eurozone break-up and whose promises this year to embark if necessary on “quantitative easing”, or large-scale asset purchases, have led to government borrowing costs tumbling to euro-era lows in countries such as Spain and Italy.


“He lost credibility – and that is why the market drove the euro higher,” says Lutz Karpowitz, currency strategist at Commerzbank.
But, as if waiting until the last possible moment, Mr Draghi had a surprise in store. Winding up a lengthy reply to a journalist’s question, he let slip that “the governing council is comfortable with acting next time” – a clear hint of policy action to weaken the euro at June’s meeting.

It was a classic Draghi intervention. With a few words he altered the course of markets. The euro dropped more than 1 per cent after his comments – and fell further on Friday to its lowest since early April. Eurozone periphery yields, which move inversely with prices, fell further: Irish 10-year yields dropped below UK equivalents for the first time in six years.

Emotional distress combined with long term sleepless, could literally make some people imagine or hear things considerably different

CitiBoy, listen and listen very carefully- because this is the last time i'm gonna say this:

1- June meeting will come, and nothing will change ... the Euro will go up!
2- June meeting will come, and he cut interest rate - The euro will sell to $1.35 and up we go!
3- June meeting comes, and ECB introduce QE - which is impossible by the way, the Euro will go up!
4- An alien invasion to earth, the Euro will go up.

The sooner everyone gets comfortable with the fact, that 1.2x is no longer with us - the faster the transition will take place..

utter nonsense. EURUSD would be high anyway with all this bond buying...June perhaps gives an indication on when all these external factors which propel euro now, should be over...at that point some action from ECB might have a permanent effect on eurusd, now it would be a waste of energy and resources...until then up is more likely