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Sonic R. System

Quoting traderathome
{quote} Sonicers, Those of you that will persist to add to a trade in the "red", if you do not understand Sonic's intentions and the reasons for his exhortations against doing so, then read this post by Guptio1508. Thank you, Gupito1508, for taking the time to reveal your personal challenge, as well as those details supporting Sonic's exhortations. Sonicers experienced with PVSRA know what a wonderful tool it is. Aside from those times in the market when nothing is real clear, PVSRA nails whether the robber banks are bulls or bears. Unfortunately...

nice follow up explanation, this extremely informative for newbie
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Sonicers, Those of you that will persist to add to a trade in the "red", if you do not understand Sonic's intentions and the reasons for his exhortations against doing so, then read this post by Guptio1508. Thank you, Gupito1508, for taking the time to reveal your personal challenge, as well as those details supporting Sonic's exhortations. Sonicers experienced with PVSRA know what a wonderful tool it is. Aside from those times in the market when nothing is real clear, PVSRA nails whether the robber banks are bulls or bears. Unfortunately...
got it, so no to "scout after scout after scout" type of posts, no matter how mini the lot is.
only posts that fit the classic entries.
Quoting traderathome
{quote} santos23, This thread is huge, over 69,000 posts so far! And a lot of information is contained within. But newbies resent being told to read 69,000+ posts! So, a lot of work went into condensing essentials that would enable them to join in with the recent posts. Do you know what most of the 69,000+ posts contain? For your information, they contain ridiculous questions from newbies too damn lazy to do what they were expected to do competently! This is the reason the thread is huge - lazy people that really don't do what they should, then...
understood all re: your frustrations. Have spent 100+ hours reading. Your work does not go unnoticed. Thank you.
Quoting traderathome
Sonicers, And here we see the skillful use of the Classic trade, by feinan..... {image}
Quoting feinan
USD/CAD Long Closed after news came out.... banked 45pips. dont want be greedy.. The reason i long because i see range so low today, MM are loading short in a downtrend market and building longs. and now those sellers are trapped in MMs pocket. {image}
Quoting laurentiupbv
Hi Guys, IMHO sometimes is hard to remain only with a classic entry, even the PA got you in red. I've closed my position on UC only to point it out some of my believes. As can be seen I've entered classic long on UC, but the MM's pushed price below my entry, even The PVSRA analysis told me that the MM's were bulls and the USD should rise. Let's say that my second entry was a scout based on high volume and it was entered to early. But looking at my third entry, despite that it was took as a classic entry, it was entered in red. As it was always specified...
TAH, with all due respect, it seems to me that fenian traded the news, more of a scalping type of trading, open and close the position in less then 20 minutes. Is this what you recommend? To wait and look for a classic formation before the news comes up on the respective pair?
I traded the same pair, with the same concept about how the MM want to move next. I've specified that only for the purpose of expressing my beliefs I've closed my position and post the chart, otherwise i would have been waiting to look for a new classic/scout green entry.

regards
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Dear Prof TAH,
I have joined this group since March 2013. I have tried hard to do your homework on PVSRA by reading the chart as I did last night on UCAD. Before the news I found UCAD above the whole. I wanted to long but the trend is UP then I did nothing.....

Give me advice
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Dear Sonicers,

This is my entry on NU....I did coz NU is above whole. Please evaluate...thanks
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Quoting denmas
Dear Sonicers, This is my entry on NU....I did coz NU is above whole. Please evaluate...thanks {image}
You took trade just because the price was above the whole number???

Looks like somethings wrong with your trade level indicator too. In your case at the moment it should be red, not green.
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
Quoting traderathome
Sonicers, I received this PM from Drawme5...... Hi Tah, after your last post, it made sense to me. You were making me confuse, all this new theorys when you have been adding in red trades for all the thread. I did not intend to disrispect you. Now I see, that Sonic wants his thread to go a certain way. Maybe its time you start your own one. I just want to be sure you understand and agree with what I said before, even though you canīt agree with me on a public forum. Sorry to bother. Just trying to improve. I am not sure what to make of this message...
I am very very happy with the current system. It's a lot safer (and eventually profitable). Last year we traded PVSRA position building. It was an excellent year (veeeeery big profits) until something happened. Tah always said to us that we can know what the MMs are doing, but can't know when they'll run for profits. I'm sure someone can remember last August to October months; we were seeing bears everywhere (I still think they actually were) and we started entering trades against the trend, waiting for the reverse. Eventually EVERYONE (me included) had to close those trades with big losses, reaching margin calls (even trading very light). Good traders like Loeil or Msis125125 were kicked by the market, don't forget it. Even Tah who is the fucking genious for me, lost about 90k pips in 1 month. So please, remember this. Position building eventually can experiment something like this and ruin a lot of hard work.
Fortunatelly, Tah is always improving this amazing system. I like this "trade in green" system very much, cause we can use PVSRA to know the next step of the MMs, and to be prepared to shot at the right spot. Just wanted to advice to newbies and to remember to senior what position building can do.
Sonic and Tah, thanks again for the nicest thread in the world and for your neverlasting patience and will of helping.
Life is climbing
Quoting Splink
{quote} I am very very happy with the current system. It's a lot safer (and eventually profitable). Last year we traded PVSRA position building. It was an excellent year (veeeeery big profits) until something happened. Tah always said to us that we can know what the MMs are doing, but can't know when they'll run for profits. I'm sure someone can remember last August to October months; we were seeing bears everywhere (I still think they actually were) and we started entering trades against the trend, waiting for the reverse. Eventually EVERYONE (me...
I remember that last summer crash very well. It was very hard to keep account alive. But honestly I have to say that this crash brought me down to the earth and I made my conclusions.

Today I can say that I have not had any loss trades since the big crash. This was very good lesson that we made something wrongly in this time and now I know what we made wrongly and I learnt from it, still learning of course.

However, to me every analyses starts with background. Without it, I don't even imagine how is possible to trade. If we want to be on the same side as MMs, we need to understand their methods, we have to be able to recognize their footprints on the charts, their behavior which is btw repeating every single day.
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
Quoting loeil
{quote} I remember that last summer crash very well. It was very hard to keep account alive. But honestly I have to say that this crash brought me down to the earth and I made my conclusions. Today I can say that I have not had any loss trades since the big crash. This was very good lesson that we made something wrongly in this time and now I know what we made wrongly and I learnt from it, still learning of course. However, to me every analyses starts with background. Without it, I don't even imagine how is possible to trade. If we want to be...

Loeil, your posts are one of my favorite to read and learn from here. Is there a chance you could post the trades from that big crash, the analysis that brought you to open the positions and the eventual results. And also if you would be generous enough to explain what did you learn from that. After all we are here to learn from those that are more experienced and we can surely share the belief that it is better to learn from others' mistakes(better for the heart at least.) In other words - I want to learn what you have learned without the big crash appearing in the history of my account! Big THANK YOU in advance.
Quoting loeil
UC - long. {image}
USDCAD - someone asked me to analyze what I saw on UC before I took longs there.

As I said in my previous posts that MMs behavior repeats every single day over and over again. This is a very good sample of it.

1 picture - price came down, volume increasing evidently. At this moment we didn't know what was inside those down bars, but the clues are in the next action. Price stopped after high volume falling and starts ranging. Why? If those down bars contained only short positions then how is possible that price stopped and starts ranging?? Ranging means that there is a balance between bears and bulls. Ranging means accumulation and accumulation means that in this case seems that MMs taking retailers shorts and starts building longs.
After some time of ranging we see that price tries to rally up but suddenly supply appears, so they cannot bring the price up if there is too much supply. So price continues to range.

2 picture - after first ranging price still comes down little bit and we see exactly the same situation as on the first picture. Price came down, volume increasing evidently. And again, price stopped and starts to ranging. Exactly the same behavior as previously. This is a very strong clue that MMs building long positions there, same time when retailers jumping to short after those down bars.
And this was the place where I recognized the same behavior and started to add my longs.
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Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
Quoting loeil
{quote} You took trade just because the price was above the whole number??? Looks like somethings wrong with your trade level indicator too. In your case at the moment it should be red, not green.
This is my level setting.
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Quoting loeil
{quote} USDCAD - someone asked me to analyze what I saw on UC before I took longs there. As I said in my previous posts that MMs behavior repeats every single day over and over again. This is a very good sample of it. 1 picture - price came down, volume increasing evidently. At this moment we didn't know what was inside those down bars, but the clues are in the next action. Price stopped after high volume falling and starts ranging. Why? If those down bars contained only short positions then how is possible that price stopped and starts ranging??...
Thank you for taking the time to go over what conclusions you had come too during that time. i have learned alot just reading your posts and i hope you continue to post here even with the "new" push for only posting classics. Every post u make helps someone.

thanks
Bill
Quoting DDaniel
{quote} Loeil, your posts are one of my favorite to read and learn from here. Is there a chance you could post the trades from that big crash, the analysis that brought you to open the positions and the eventual results. And also if you would be generous enough to explain what did you learn from that. After all we are here to learn from those that are more experienced and we can surely share the belief that it is better to learn from others' mistakes(better for the heart at least.) In other words - I want to learn what you have learned without the...
Here is one example what costed me lot.

2013 summer, in July, I took GU shorts.

1 picture - red marked area is the area where is started to build shorts. As you see, price touched nearly this area only once and has never came back to this area. And look where the price is now. Up more than 1700 pips!!!

And how I traded then? High volume at highs automatically ringed the bell that MMs are bears. And I added short positions every time when I saw high volume at highs.

2 picture - one sample how my trades was added, because I was sure that MMs are bears. And what actually happened was that MMs were bulls.

I don't remember how big was my DD this time, but it was big and I had lot of trades opened with multiple pairs. Although all the trades were only 0.01 size, but however small is your trade, jumping to trade after every bigger volume was huge mistake!

I saved my account, but it was such a mess. I deposited more(just for saving my account), I started to take opposite trades, I took bigger trades to earn some money for saving my account, closed lot of trades in minus and so one. Don't recommend it to no one. And of course, lost lot of nerves, lot of sleepless nights.

And what I learned from that crash. I started to read the book "Master the Markets" by Tom Williams and realized that high volume can mean different things. High volume is normal in multiple situations and doesn't mean always that MMs adding shorts/longs.

Looking GU now I realize how wrong I was this time. And one important thing what I learned was that market doesn't give you straight 300-400 pips up/down move. For catching this kind of move usually assumes opened trades for 2-3 months sometimes. MMs never gonna hold their trades opened 2-3 months! It's a very long time and everything can change in this time.

And btw, I have threw out from my head this kind of conception as "MMs controlling the Market". NO! MMs just taking advantage of opportunities what are presented to them. No organization or individual trader can control the market.

So, if I'm beginner where should I start? Remember I can only speak for myself.

When you are looking the charts, then the first thing is overall picture. Where is the price? Is there any support/resistance area? Volume, is there any significant changes in volume? If you see very high volume, then look at where this high volume appears? Is the price just felt or raised ? And the most important thing is what is happening after high volume!! How market reacts to high volume? Does the price stopped and starts to range or moving on?
You should think about all those things before you take any trade at all. How you can take a trade when you have no idea what is going on in the background? Trading without the background is the same as blind leading the blind.

One thing more, keep it simple, do not over think, do not imagine, forget those "should" "could" "would" things! Everything what you need is front of you on the chart. And remember, chart never lie! Trade what you see not what you expect!
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Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
Quoting denmas
{quote} This is my level setting. {image}
This is an access panel, not trade levels indicator settings.

Trade levels should be look like this:
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Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
Quoting loeil
{quote} Here is one example what costed me lot. 2013 summer, in July, I took GU shorts. 1 picture - red marked area is the area where is started to build shorts. As you see, price touched nearly this area only once and has never came back to this area. And look where the price is now. Up more than 1700 pips!!! And how I traded then? High volume at highs automatically ringed the bell that MMs are bears. And I added short positions every time when I saw high volume at highs. 2 picture - one sample how my trades was added, because I was sure that MMs...
A think everyone will take a point from what you said! I, for myself, will surely rethink my style of trading after reading this and after TAH stressing on the matter recently discussed. Once again Sonic R thread channeling one's views into a better way.
Quoting laurentiupbv
{quote} {quote} {quote} TAH, with all due respect, it seems to me that fenian traded the news, more of a scalping type of trading, open and close the position in less then 20 minutes. Is this what you recommend? To wait and look for a classic formation before the news comes up on the respective pair? I traded the same pair, with the same concept about how the MM want to move next. I've specified that only for the purpose of expressing my beliefs I've closed my position and post the chart, otherwise i would have been waiting to look for a new classic/scout...
It seems to me that feinan traded a Classic setup. It just happened to come with the "news" Look, we could see from PVSRA the robber banks had worked the price low well ahead of this "news". And we know that the robber banks don't react to "news", they scheme in advance of it, because they already know the essence of it well before it is released!

So, it seems to me that feinan did a proper PVSRA, understands how the market works (i.e., understands how the robber banks work the market), and simply stalked for the Classic long opportunity.
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Quoting loeil
{quote} Here is one example what costed me lot. 2013 summer, in July, I took GU shorts. 1 picture - red marked area is the area where is started to build shorts. As you see, price touched nearly this area only once and has never came back to this area. And look where the price is now. Up more than 1700 pips!!! And how I traded then? High volume at highs automatically ringed the bell that MMs are bears. And I added short positions every time when I saw high volume at highs. 2 picture - one sample how my trades was added, because I was sure that MMs...
Loeil, thank you very much for this helpful experience. It made me understand that we have to be alert in every moment and very sure about what we are doing.

Quoting loeil
{quote} Here is one example what costed me lot. 2013 summer, in July, I took GU shorts. 1 picture - red marked area is the area where is started to build shorts. As you see, price touched nearly this area only once and has never came back to this area. And look where the price is now. Up more than 1700 pips!!! And how I traded then? High volume at highs automatically ringed the bell that MMs are bears. And I added short positions every time when I saw high volume at highs. 2 picture - one sample how my trades was added, because I was sure that MMs...
Sorry, but there are some things I don't understand. You said that high volumes don't always mean building shorts/longs. So, what do they also mean? And how can we distinguish?

Thanks
Quoting loeil
{quote} I remember that last summer crash very well. It was very hard to keep account alive. But honestly I have to say that this crash brought me down to the earth and I made my conclusions. Today I can say that I have not had any loss trades since the big crash. This was very good lesson that we made something wrongly in this time and now I know what we made wrongly and I learnt from it, still learning of course. However, to me every analyses starts with background. Without it, I don't even imagine how is possible to trade. If we want to be...
Dear loeil,

I, for one here, have great respect for your trading acumen. The greatest contribution to this thread you can make is to hammer home your technique for determining what you call the "background" status. And I wish you would.

You have become progressively better at shifting from starting your position building too soon, to starting ever nearer the beginning of the trend reversal. How much difference would it be if you achieved starting at the apex of the trend reversal, to waiting for the following Classic setup before building, I do not know, but at this time for most traders the latter would be less risky. On the other hand, if we all had the position building skill you seem to headed for, or if there was as sufficient documentation provided for all to learn to achieve it, then I would acquiesce and surely push for this method to become a partner with the Classic.

Perhaps, loeil, you could think on this and initiate a commitment to posting on an ongoing basis what you have determined to be the way to achieve knowledge of the "background", a sufficiently detailed "what to do and how to do it" method of determining "background" so that we could launch it as a "test method" for those that wish to do so. It would be apart from Classic trading and trade posts using that method would be clearly identified as being per the "test method". I know that this "method" is loosely referred to as "position building", but your success indicates a level of skill beyond the catastrophic manner "position building" started. Your technique deserves better than to simply be called "position building". So, I propose this in the hopes you will take on the work to solidify the technique and document it for possible inclusion into the Sonic R. System.

These two posts begin to achieve the kind of specific detail we all need to understand in order to become proficient. You obviously understand a lot more than your words (so far) impart to the reader. Bridging that gap, so that there are all the words there to convey, without any possibility of misunderstanding or of incomplete understanding, is what is needed here for this to become a partner with the Classic. And I would offer my services to attempt to compile from your future posts on the subject, so that a concise and competent description of the method of analysis could be available to all via a link in Post #1. This is a very delicate matter, due to the ease with which mistakes thru a lack of understanding can be made and accounts can be blown. However, if you can nail it, for all Sonicers to read, learn and apply successfully, then I support it. After all, the purpose of this thread is to help retail traders not become victims in this dog-eat-dot market:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post7460959
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post7460983

I am sure that aficionados of "position building" would applaud your work on this because we know there are good profits to be made this way. A treatise on how to do it the best way to minimize risk of loss and blown accounts would be a great achievement and contribution to this thread, which is dedicated to helping retail traders become successful thru elegant simplicity and minimizing risk.

Loeil, I don't know of anyone who has better learned from the past year of the PVSRA project how to do what you, I, and some others here have been doing. So, I leave it in your hands and to your decision. If you make the commitment to adequately document, so will I to organize the documentation and push for it to become a partner to the Classic.

Sincerely,
-tah
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