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  • #895,861
  • May 8, 2014 1:40am May 8, 2014 1:40am
gold :nerd:
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More on my Blog...
  • #895,862
  • May 8, 2014 1:41am May 8, 2014 1:41am
Quoting WillyWonka
I am short @ 1.3924 targeting 1.3880 on the back of the OECD report earlier this week sharply criticising the ECB and Draghi's response to low inflation. I think we might hear something more substantial from the press conference today. Anyway just my 2 cents for today might be a bit of a gamble guess we will see.
I have read the OECD statement twice, and couldn't find a reference to the bold part up. Their own inflation expectation is semi- similar to the ones provided by the ECB. can you copy the paragraph?
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #895,863
  • May 8, 2014 1:41am May 8, 2014 1:41am
Following yesterday Yellen's speech I believe that bond buying in US will continue for a few weeks. This obviously means a weak USD and equities. This could also be the right context for Draghi to take action.
  • #895,864
  • May 8, 2014 1:44am May 8, 2014 1:44am
Good day trader.... going in to the ECB conference today it will seem that the market will be RISK ON and this will see EURUSD edging higher and higher till the statement is released. Any inaction from the ECB i believe will lead to higher levels and most likely fresh highs 1.40 and 1.4050, meaning that the ECB will say basically that they are satisfied with current levels and see it sustainable etc bla bla.

In case Draghi does mention or hint that easing or stimulus will be implemented and among these lines, we could see a spike higher only to promptly fade out and set off a short term reversal.

I think GBP is a good bet today, as there should be no change in the BoE monetary policy and fundies and tehcnicals are aligned hinting higher levels above 1.70 can be expected.

As always trade safe and many green pips to ALL
Cheers!!
  • #895,865
  • May 8, 2014 1:45am May 8, 2014 1:45am
now markets are testing draghi and will test his patience more around 1.3950. Just remember feb 2013 is my advice. euro was somewhere around 1.3740 and got slapped 100 pips in 1 hr.
  • #895,866
  • May 8, 2014 1:46am May 8, 2014 1:46am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} I have read the OECD statement twice, and couldn't find a reference to the bold part up. Their own inflation expectation is semi- similar to the ones provided by the ECB. can you copy the paragraph?
check this out. article also mentions rock band status quo

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/65dd538a-d...#axzz316zRoaiQ
  • #895,867
  • May 8, 2014 1:46am May 8, 2014 1:46am
Quoting PipsMaster23
Good day trader.... going in to the ECB conference today it will seem that the market will be RISK ON and this will see EURUSD edging higher and higher till the statement is released. Any inaction from the ECB i believe will lead to higher levels and most likely fresh highs 1.40 and 1.4050, meaning that the ECB will say basically that they are satisfied with current levels and see it sustainable etc bla bla. In case Draghi does mention or hint that easing or stimulus will be implemented and among these lines, we could see a spike higher only to...
this is exactly why I feel 1.69 and lower will come today.
  • #895,868
  • May 8, 2014 1:49am May 8, 2014 1:49am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} I have read the OECD statement twice, and couldn't find a reference to the bold part up. Their own inflation expectation is semi- similar to the ones provided by the ECB. can you copy the paragraph?

Sharply might have been overstating it a little, however it was critical of the ECB's inaction

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...ation-eurozone


"In particular, we call on the ECB to take new policy actions to move inflation more decisively towards target and to be ready for additional non-conventional stimulus if inflation were to show no clear sign of returning there." The warning will prove embarrassing for the ECB chief, Mario Draghi, and the rest of the central bank's governing council, which have come under sustained criticism for allowing inflation to fall in recent months to as low as 0.5% without easing credit conditions.
"Don't get caught trading wheat in the corn pit"
  • #895,869
  • May 8, 2014 1:49am May 8, 2014 1:49am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} this is exactly why I feel 1.69 and lower will come today.
1.69 ????
  • #895,870
  • May 8, 2014 1:51am May 8, 2014 1:51am
Quoting zapiron
{quote} 1.69 ????
talking abt GBP my friend
  • #895,871
  • May 8, 2014 1:52am May 8, 2014 1:52am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I have been thinking lately a lot trying to figure out why and it comes to ironically a simple sentence by Yellen Yellen told U.S. lawmakers the Fed will keep rates near zero for a “considerable time” after it ends its bond-buying program Markets take advantage of vagueness.I am certain its intentionally vague. Dollar bulls are not doing well because of it and perhaps that's the intent keeping dollar weak. On the other side Draghi does concern about low inflation and continued Euro strength will hurt prospects of EZ recovery. My bet is on...
I agree, this all depends if Draghi is dovish today today
  • #895,872
  • May 8, 2014 1:52am May 8, 2014 1:52am
Quoting Greener
{quote} check this out. article also mentions rock band status quo http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/65dd538a-d...#axzz316zRoaiQ
Sorry i do not have a subscription, so i can't read it. The statement is right in front of me, if anything it's Euro bullish. Look at this:

Quote
The nominal exchange rate of the euro against main trading partners has appreciated slightly more than expected in the winter forecast. Looking ahead, the technical assumption is for the exchange rate to remain unchanged over the foreast horizon
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #895,873
  • May 8, 2014 1:57am May 8, 2014 1:57am
Quoting WillyWonka
{quote} Sharply might have been overstating it a little, however it was critical of the ECB's inaction
You said the statement says, not the Guardian says ... i have the statement opened, where does it says that?! ( This is a simple question)
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #895,874
  • May 8, 2014 1:58am May 8, 2014 1:58am
Well Hello

Must be time to consult

with the orcale


Question

How fucked are we

Answer

We are really Fucked
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  • #895,875
  • May 8, 2014 2:02am May 8, 2014 2:02am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Sorry i do not have a subscription, so i can't read it. The statement is right in front of me, if anything it's Euro bullish. Look at this: {quote}
your appreciation is from 0.5% to 0.7% again lower than 1% and even lower than just below 2% target. you shouldn't look at statements. They publish a report with views for each individual country. If you cant access FT website try this one instead

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...45070825296800
  • #895,876
  • May 8, 2014 2:02am May 8, 2014 2:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} when it comes to rates. i listen. especially near where we are atm. this is the first time in years, when its a possibility. at the same time the fed is nearer its best chance for raising. evidently the bond market is moving for a reason. right or wrong these guys are most times right in masses. they are doing what the fed said it would do. with them, the need for the fed to buy is null. the eu made a hh. atm there is nothing but speculation here. but we are in a place where it could give max affect with a small nudge. i dont claim to know...

More than a year ago Sisse send me some pm's about the rates,


Talking down here will not help imo without something official and as I said it sont happen before end of Q2 however bears have great RR here I must admit
thanks
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swing it!
  • #895,877
  • May 8, 2014 2:06am May 8, 2014 2:06am
Quoting Greener
{quote} your appreciation is from 0.5% to 0.7% again lower than 1% and even lower than just below 2% target. you shouldn't look at statements. They publish a report with views for each individual country. If you cant access FT website try this one instead http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...45070825296800
Thanks for the link and the advice ... greatly appreciated
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #895,878
  • May 8, 2014 2:07am May 8, 2014 2:07am
Quoting forexings
Is this bear players are fool? Same technique being applied before ECB meeting. Holding above will be much better instead of flirting with support line
Pathetic bear fools did it and now bull renewed hourly strength to fck those craps.
After breaking important line in September I didn't see any bearish master plan. All big bear boys fkd up after idi*t bernanke directly denied taper that he understood his fault after given up everything.

Let's see how the crap federal manage this double edged sword. Bernanke should have kicked out earlier from fed.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #895,879
  • May 8, 2014 2:07am May 8, 2014 2:07am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} You said the statement says, not the Guardian says ... i have the statement opened, where does it says that?! ( This is a simple question)

The Guardian quotes the statement from the OECD acting chief economist, Rintaro Tamaki

"In particular, we call on the ECB to take new policy actions to move inflation more decisively towards target and to be ready for additional non-conventional stimulus if inflation were to show no clear sign of returning there."


Simple enough for you ?
"Don't get caught trading wheat in the corn pit"
  • #895,880
  • May 8, 2014 2:08am May 8, 2014 2:08am
EU update after London open ...

FLAT up confirmed from 1.3905 to 1.39399, so ... now waiting for the pullback, entry zone 1.38842-1.38727, with stops under 1.38541 ... looking for 1.39723-1.40436

I updated the PO BUY on EU acording to that morning numbers ... and that's all till NY open, see you
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