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  • #895,581
  • May 7, 2014 2:53am May 7, 2014 2:53am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} is it possible some foreign funds are selling US equities and then convert money into other currencies or into US bonds? Then data is irrelevant.

im going with the same old story. China. Probably had to buy 80-90bn in US notes in March and April alone if their reserves grew by 129bn in q1.

http://www.efxnews.com/story/24119/g...ur-dollar-call

This flow is going to go away soon. Nothing new though, my same old thesis.

Its bad for the fed because assuming china has to target their purchases in the areas of the curve where theres the most size 0-5 year... it prevents short term rates from reflecting rate hike risks.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #895,582
  • May 7, 2014 2:59am May 7, 2014 2:59am
no follow thru for EJ... im out until 140.99
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #895,583
  • May 7, 2014 3:00am May 7, 2014 3:00am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} im going with the same old story. China. Probably had to buy 80-90bn in US notes in March and April alone if their reserves grew by 129bn in q1. http://www.efxnews.com/story/24119/g...ur-dollar-call This flow is going to go away soon. Nothing new though, my same old thesis. Its bad for the fed because assuming china has to target their purchases in the areas of the curve where theres the most size 0-5 year... it prevents short term rates from reflecting rate hike risks.
On top of that, if the US stock market begin to drop, more money will be freed for conversion into bonds or foreign currencies. The dollar is going to drop. That was what happened that euro went up for 4 months when the world stock market began to drop in November 2007
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #895,584
  • May 7, 2014 3:03am May 7, 2014 3:03am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} On top of that, if the US stock market begin to drop, more money will be freed for conversion into bonds or foreign currencies. The dollar is going to drop. That was what happened that euro went up for 4 months when the world stock market began to drop in November 2007
So I guess a lot of European money is invested in the US stock market. Not the other way around
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #895,585
  • May 7, 2014 3:05am May 7, 2014 3:05am
Quoting Citiboy
Yellen doesnt even really need to be hawkish, all she has to do is say the data was good.
data was good would be way too hawkish of Yellen...Draghi can be a surprise this time and don't think the market is expecting much from that angle. Economy slack in Europe is a drag for the entire world. Euro has been clearly a failure for all member states. Unemployment combined with low inflation will have repercussions in the years to come. ECB should have a new mandate including specific tasks to solve unemployment problems. Extra stimulus in whatever form will be on the cards for a long time.
  • #895,586
  • May 7, 2014 3:08am May 7, 2014 3:08am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} agreed, even if he does wear a skirt
lets see who kicks who's ass. for you I will kick your ass even if you were naked.

  • #895,587
  • May 7, 2014 3:42am May 7, 2014 3:42am
Looks as the market is playing ping pong with ECB so tomorrow we will se who wins this battle

0,7 % inflation the 30 of april is too low. Whatever it takes. He is not a fool
  • #895,588
  • Edited 4:06am May 7, 2014 3:54am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting MarianneOslo
Looks as the market is playing ping pong with ECB so tomorrow we will se who wins this battle 0,7 % inflation the 30 of april is too low. Whatever it takes. He is not a fool
Time to be smart and say what exactly it takes. Don't think markets will be fooled again by the same motto. inflation has been below 1% for many consecutive months which means that ECB inflation target of just below 2% is gone. 2014 inflation target was calculated with an exchange rate around 13500-6000
  • #895,589
  • May 7, 2014 4:20am May 7, 2014 4:20am
Hello guys,

it's incredible, how PA is "chasing" my accounts levels.

My tiny MT5 account live was killed yesterday after crossing 1.3931 with shorts from 1.3770 and this level was the low at the end of April. (coincidence or maybe not!)

my other account (you can follow here at trade explorer) full of euro shorts, again levels "chasing" my account. my BE at 1.3931 was touched yesterday after the first spike and the top at 1.3950 is my best short opened since April 13th.

COINCIDENCES OR MAYBE NOT!!


All the best and be careful with your money!!
  • #895,590
  • May 7, 2014 4:35am May 7, 2014 4:35am
Wake up and see the moves ... do the morning maths ... and the results:

PO BUY EURUSD @ 1.39046 TG1 1.39723 TG2 1.4004 TG3 1.4043
PO BUY EURUSD @ 1.38865 TG1 1.39723 TG2 1.4004 TG3 1.4043
PO BUY EURUSD @ 1.39526 TG1 1.39723 TG2 1.4004
PO BUY NZDUSD @ 0.86486 TG1 0.87847 TG2 0.88851 TG3 0.90476
PO BUY NZDUSD @ 0.86161 TG1 0.87847 TG2 0.88851 TG3 0.90476
PO BUY GBPJPY @ 171.09 TG1 173.718 TG2 175.140
PO BUY AUDJPY @ 94.495 TG1 97.478 TG2 98.992

Some of them are H4 based calcs and targets ... other H1

If they are filled in the next 24-48h ... ok ... if not ... then another round of calcs will be done
  • #895,591
  • May 7, 2014 4:37am May 7, 2014 4:37am
EUR pivotal area 3880-3896 , if its to go for 1.40 at all
decent RR ratio for longs within that area , stop should be bellow 3860 imo
  • #895,592
  • May 7, 2014 4:39am May 7, 2014 4:39am
Quoting rbetancor
Wake up and see the moves ... do the morning maths ... and the results: PO BUY EURUSD @ 1.39046 TG1 1.39723 TG2 1.4004 TG3 1.4043 PO BUY EURUSD @ 1.38865 TG1 1.39723 TG2 1.4004 TG3 1.4043 PO BUY EURUSD @ 1.39526 TG1 1.39723 TG2 1.4004 PO BUY NZDUSD @ 0.86486 TG1 0.87847 TG2 0.88851 TG3 0.90476 PO BUY NZDUSD @ 0.86161 TG1 0.87847 TG2 0.88851 TG3 0.90476 PO BUY GBPJPY @ 171.09 TG1 173.718 TG2 175.140 PO BUY AUDJPY @ 94.495 TG1 97.478 TG2 98.992 Some of them are H4 based calcs and targets ... other H1 If they are filled in the next 24-48h ... ok ......
yesterday's daily candle on NZD doesnt look bulish at all , I'd restrain myself from buyng Kiwi
  • #895,593
  • May 7, 2014 4:42am May 7, 2014 4:42am
Quoting yanitsa
{quote} yesterday's daily candle on NZD doesnt look bulish at all , I'd restrain myself from buyng Kiwi
What maths said ... it's what maths said ..., a mature cycle on daily, yes .. but still not finished
  • #895,594
  • May 7, 2014 4:43am May 7, 2014 4:43am
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} What maths said ... it's what maths said ..., a mature cycle on daily, yes .. but still not finished
Thanks Do You have calcs for Pound ?
  • #895,595
  • May 7, 2014 4:44am May 7, 2014 4:44am
Quoting BoredToLoose
Hello guys, it's incredible, how PA is "chasing" my accounts levels. My tiny MT5 account live was killed yesterday after crossing 1.3931 with shorts from 1.3770 and this level was the low at the end of April. (coincidence or maybe not!) my other account (you can follow here at trade explorer) full of euro shorts, again levels "chasing" my account. my BE at 1.3931 was touched yesterday after the first spike and the top at 1.3950 is my best short opened since April 13th. COINCIDENCES OR MAYBE NOT!! All the best and be careful with your money!!
so are you bored of bursting your accounts. yesterday was a horror show everywhere. aunty yellen still to speak and she will be super dovish as usual. One question from senators will be fixed. How much more QE does US require? Her answer:

infinity..................................................................................................................................................
  • #895,596
  • May 7, 2014 4:55am May 7, 2014 4:55am
Today i think we can go high high...
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  • #895,597
  • May 7, 2014 5:02am May 7, 2014 5:02am
hourly bull flags on E/U and G/U
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #895,598
  • May 7, 2014 5:06am May 7, 2014 5:06am
Quoting Citiboy
hourly bull flags on E/U and G/U
It's almost the same moves in these pairs so it's not so good to analyse and/or trade on both.
...but I agree with you - bull flags
  • #895,599
  • Edited 5:35am May 7, 2014 5:15am | Edited 5:35am
I have limit set at 3909 with 10pips stop and 4009 target,
edit lower that to 3902 stop is the same 10 pips
swing it!
  • #895,600
  • May 7, 2014 5:20am May 7, 2014 5:20am
Quoting yanitsa
{quote} Thanks Do You have calcs for Pound ?
The same as yesterday ... go back on the thread and look for it
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