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  • #895,421
  • May 6, 2014 4:56pm May 6, 2014 4:56pm
Wheller: Strength of NZ$ will be a factor in rate decisions
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #895,422
  • May 6, 2014 4:56pm May 6, 2014 4:56pm
Some time ago I read through each and every one of Cloggie's posts to learn his trading method. Turned out he never made a live call - just hindsight-hogwash and lots of bravado. So can we please stop idolizing this guy?

Edit: And EURUSD is about to fall ~30 pips from here.
  • #895,423
  • May 6, 2014 5:02pm May 6, 2014 5:02pm
Quoting MAM.Trader
Wheller: Strength of NZ$ will be a factor in rate decisions
"""""""""""""""""""""""Was it sgheduled this speech ?
  • #895,424
  • May 6, 2014 5:04pm May 6, 2014 5:04pm
matters...?
Quoting yanitsa
{quote} """""""""""""""""""""""Was it sgheduled this speech ?
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #895,425
  • May 6, 2014 5:04pm May 6, 2014 5:04pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} It's the new season "Sliver Happens" On a side note: Fuck Cloogie and anyone that worship him ..
it certainly does
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #895,426
  • May 6, 2014 5:07pm May 6, 2014 5:07pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Cool video. I still think we cant really compare inflation in a globalized economy to inflation 20,30,40 years ago.It seems idiotic that the Fed is 'dumbfounded' on why inflation wont go up. They decide policy for the United States, but the economy is global and so are most of the firms that are directly affected by Fed policy. It doesnt matter how much money is printed if folks wages in the countries that actually produce things are still relatively low. Not to mention these same countries (Brazil,China,India, Oil Exporters) are all usually...
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} mostly correct. the flaw i see in the wage portion is the multiple of energy is excluded. wages are a small part in heavy industrial cost. for example in U.S. car production, labor is less then 10%. while energy is the most expensive cost. add in shipping and that labor cost is even less to worry about. if ng is 4$cf in the u.s. and 18$cf at a competitor. its not hard to side with the 10% labor cost.

I would actually have to disagree a lot as far as wages/trade is concerned ...

no matter what, trade is good ... the poor nations are 'poorer' without trade.

Citiboy, what you are talking about with trade is 'absolute advantage', when in reality 'comparative advantage' is what makes the difference in trade (aka, do what you are good at with the least opportunity costs, no matter what others do. You can build a computer, so can he, but he has to give up cutting grass ... you don't ... so it benefits him more to cut grass, leaving you open for business to produce computers )

- "Not to mention these same countries (Brazil,China,India, Oil Exporters) are all usually trying everything they can to intervene in FX and oil markets to prevent the some of same outcomes that would cause inflation for the end consumer of their goods"

And we don't know who is going through London el al to make purchasing of bonds, equities, etc. It could be the Chinese, it could be the US, it could be fake bonds ... direct API from US banks to London with fudged numbers. who knows.

What proof do you have that they intervene, most of that information, on a state level, isn't released for months or years .. if ever. We still don't know anything about swaps with the federal reserve.

And the Feds aren't really printing money, they just give it exchange with the holdings of big banks at the fed so that they can get cheap cash for fed deposits, so in essence, we are just waiving the reserve requirement. nothing more, if the banks are lending less ... (which they are) ... putting the reserve rate higher or lower doesn't make a difference.

" This same line of reasoning is why we got the housing bubble."

IMO, of course, the housing bubble was solely do to the left's social experiment of the 80's of 'get everyone a home loan, EQUALITY' and if you didn't approve, you are a racist. Bush didn't help either. but it stems from the 80's.

" Meanwhile inflation is 5-10% in the countries that actually produce stuff. "

inflation, in countries that produce, is only there because currencies are mostly pegged and can't appreciate to battle inflation. so in essence, we 'export' inflation to them. But what would they rather have, our business w/ inflation or nothing? I would pick inflation.

@gator, I have been doing some work lately ... just looking FDI (foreign direct investment/foreign port investment) and the new trend that is picking up (again) is not relocating resources/capital into a foreign country but to 100% finance all operations there ... just incase the government did a takeover or tax, a business (Toyota in America, McDonalds in France, Oil companies in Russia) can just say 'hey, those are on margin, if you want to seize this stuff ... you need to talk to your local banks ... not us' .. in essence, no risk. if that makes sense. The pattern would show a lack of trust for assets/capital that isn't in a business's home country.

They are all producing locally from the ground up, 1:1 basis, no outside risk/leverage ... a lot of businesses don't trust America right now, same for Europe, etc. Especially in Asia, they don't trust many ...

http://www.oecd.org/corporate/mne/statistics.htm
  • #895,427
  • May 6, 2014 5:07pm May 6, 2014 5:07pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} There is 'waves' of new media out there, and some are gaining traction. http://www.vox.com/2014/3/28/5559052...about-the-debt

on a side note, i can hear the liberal undertones in the smugness of the narrators voice.

then the pictures shown after he says "debt isnt a problem, find something else to worry about..."

all pictures of wars, climate change, environmentalist propaganda etc. all Democrat sore spots

overall its a crap explanation honestly.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #895,428
  • May 6, 2014 5:14pm May 6, 2014 5:14pm
Quoting attila
{quote} You are a liar and you make shit up. I did buy at 20 (on march 24th, looking at the statement now) and exited at 19.957, then I bought lower at 19.70 on 3/27. Now I know what you are doing here, and you know that you're lying your ass off in front of everybody, would piss me off to no end... However, while we're doing this in front of everybody I trust their judgment and I'll just let it slide. Do you want to see the statement? I will show it to you, if you promise cross your hearth you'll not going to claim it's photoshopped.. Should I...



you can pick and choose the ones you like in any order you like. they are all there. ff has them in a timeline. no need for me to paste them.. lying? let them clones be the judge. some of the back up band are already silent.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #895,429
  • May 6, 2014 5:14pm May 6, 2014 5:14pm
Quoting MAM.Trader
matters...? {quote}
well yes , to me I prefer to be informed about such event ....didnt see it in the calendar ......thanks anyway
  • #895,430
  • May 6, 2014 5:14pm May 6, 2014 5:14pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} {quote} I would actually have to disagree a lot as far as wages/trade is concerned ... no matter what, trade is good ... the poor nations are 'poorer' without trade. Citiboy, what you are talking about with trade is 'absolute advantage',............


And we don't know who is going through London el al to make purchasing of bonds, equities, etc. It could be the Chinese, it could be the US, it could be fake bonds ... direct API from US banks to London with fudged numbers. who knows. What proof do you have that they intervene, most of that...

I can see your posts have a theme of looking through the prism of textbook economics, I like your posts but what I am trying to say is a bit more abstract. Absolute and Comparative advantage aren't really relevant. In the case of the oil exporters, ok yes they have advantage. My point is on countries that simply have lower relative labor costs AND pegged or non deliverable currencies which is basically ALL the emerging markets. This is a fact: China, Brazil, India and Russia all have strict capital controls and non deliverable currencies. In this situation, rules of fair economics don't really matter that much. So the Fed can use their little 2% inflation goal, but the point the main lever of said inflation would come via readjustment of emerging market currencies, but that never happens because those countries dont allow it.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #895,431
  • May 6, 2014 5:17pm May 6, 2014 5:17pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} definitely. Any sense of what FOMC Jeremy Stein is currently saying at NY University on US economy/monetary policy?
nope sorry
  • #895,432
  • May 6, 2014 5:21pm May 6, 2014 5:21pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} {quote} I would actually have to disagree a lot as far as wages/trade is concerned ... no matter what, trade is good ... the poor nations are 'poorer' without trade. Citiboy, what you are talking about with trade is 'absolute advantage', when in reality 'comparative advantage' is what makes the difference in trade (aka, do what you are good at with the least opportunity costs, no matter what others do. You can build a computer, so can he, but he has to give up cutting grass ... you don't ... so it benefits him more to cut grass, leaving...
its just black and white to me. i have a business, if i need employees i hire more. i dont care about what the latest poll shows or any pac trying to convince me one way or the other. i live in a 4% unemployment economy. things are not as great i have seen it.. but far from the worst.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #895,433
  • May 6, 2014 5:30pm May 6, 2014 5:30pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} I can see your posts have a theme of looking through the prism of textbook economics, I like your posts but what I am trying to say is a bit more abstract. Absolute and Comparative advantage aren't really relevant. In the case of the oil exporters, ok yes they have advantage. My point is on countries that simply have lower relative labor costs AND pegged or non deliverable currencies which is basically ALL the emerging markets. This is a fact: China, Brazil, India and Russia all have strict capital controls and non deliverable currencies....
"Absolute and Comparative advantage aren't really relevant. "

I mean no disrespect and this is a discussion, not argument. But have you studied comp vs absolute advantage? because it makes all the difference in the world and it is very very very relevant.

"My point is on countries that simply have lower relative labor costs"

Only countries that have unskilled labor abundance have low labor costs, it goes hand and hand. But wages are going higher and higher as trade advances.

" This is a fact: China, Brazil, India and Russia all have strict capital controls and non deliverable currencies.

They have strict capital controls because in order to collect revenue (government funding) they need to be more strict (tariffs, taxes on anything entering/leaving, etc) because income tax, sales tax, etc. aren't as developed yet in their economies ... from corruption to lack of resources to collect, capital controls is an only option ...

And what I was asking is how do you know? all their 'intervention' is hearsay, the BLS doesn't release private data ... London/Hong Kong/Dubai, they don't release private data. There is no way to know outside of speculation.

"but the point the main lever of said inflation would come via readjustment of emerging market currencies"

In cause/effect, EM's are effect. Cause is 1st world consumption, which is down ..

Think of it this way, if a little country (per capita) starts buying ... iPads ... their purchasing of it is so little that it won't affect supply/demand much, prices won't change.

But in America, if we stop buying iPads, the world price will drop ... because we are a big chunk of the world market ... so the price goes down all around.

With that, jump back to what I said in the other post from yesterday or what day before.

"via readjustment of emerging market currencies, but that never happens because those countries dont allow it"

The point ...

They can't do it, or else they will drop.

A country has to use its capital/resources, the capital/resources of EM's is cheap labor ... so they export their cheap labor through products, just like we export our tech fields through devices and websites.

going back to the iPads, if we stop buying, 'their' wages go down ...

better yet, read the Heckscher Ohlin model, basically a country is going to export/use what they are abundant in and import what they are scarce in. EM's are abundant in cheap labor, so that is what they export.

When we don't have a demand for what they are exporting, their wages will go down. If you go to an EM and open a mega tech hub/complex, capital for that is scarce, no skilled labor. If you open up a giant sweat shop in america, it will go out of business (jokes aside) because cheap labor (compared to EMs) is scarce.

In essence, they have no choice if they want to trade.
  • #895,434
  • May 6, 2014 5:31pm May 6, 2014 5:31pm
The infamous shovel fight: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f08_1399336148

Scroll to 06:20 for the money shot.
  • #895,435
  • May 6, 2014 5:31pm May 6, 2014 5:31pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} {quote} I would actually have to disagree a lot as far as wages/trade is concerned ... no matter what, trade is good ... the poor nations are 'poorer' without trade. Citiboy, what you are talking about with trade is 'absolute advantage', when in reality 'comparative advantage' is what makes the difference in trade (aka, do what you are good at with the least opportunity costs, no matter what others do. You can build a computer, so can he, but he has to give up cutting grass ... you don't ... so it benefits him more to cut grass, leaving...
how far are you going back? the trend you speak of started long ago. if you come full circle to 2014 and more things are changing..http://www.princeton.edu/~ies/IES_Studies/S80.pdf here is the old view before the add of new energy
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #895,436
  • May 6, 2014 5:32pm May 6, 2014 5:32pm
Quoting attila
{quote} lol.. here dude.. take your little pen and do the calculations, do you know how to interpret this statement? You'll sure have some hard time there (hint, a buy can be a close of a sell, and a sell can be a close of a buy.. you'll have to figure out which is which though)... It's timestamped and it's not photoshopped, I promise. I still have two running on a different contract, the one ending July 14th have fun.. {image}
Alex, I will take "Multiple Accounts" for $500
  • #895,437
  • May 6, 2014 5:38pm May 6, 2014 5:38pm
Short EURNZD @ 1.59733
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #895,438
  • May 6, 2014 5:39pm May 6, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} how far are you going back? the trend you speak of started long ago. if you come full circle to 2014 and more things are changing..http://www.princeton.edu/~ies/IES_Studies/S80.pdf here is the old view before the add of new energy
What part are you referring to, I was specifically/pin point ... talking about % of capital that an entity invest in FDI and how much of that is locally paid for.

The trend that is picking up pace after 2008 is foreign financing locally instead of sending any capital (labor, hard assets, etc.) overseas.

I wasn't talking about energy, I was talking about allocation of resources.

And looking at the pdf that you linked, that is FDI flows, those are always up and down, I was talking relative % of what makes up the FDI.

my point was that less risk is being taken by the investors. That is the kind of the point of a franchisee, to limit risk ... and that is what is going on internally with big corps, they are franchising internally with financing from the outside ... paying a premium to limit risk and claims.
  • #895,439
  • May 6, 2014 5:40pm May 6, 2014 5:40pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Short EURNZD @ 1.59733
whoa ...

Didn't you learn yesterday with EURAUD.

NZD data out in 5 minutes and Gov Stevens just basically said that higher NZD = no new rate hikes .. and they might intervene.

Why buy NZD? not mocking, genuinely asking.
  • #895,440
  • May 6, 2014 5:43pm May 6, 2014 5:43pm
Quoting Myo
The infamous shovel fight: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f08_1399336148 Scroll to 06:20 for the money shot.
Made my day
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