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  • #895,221
  • May 6, 2014 5:53am May 6, 2014 5:53am
extremly overbought but bullish at the moment.1.3950 will be serious resistance. Banks are buying mostly.So we are in between sharks. It may go down to 1.388x or will go back and stand in this levels (1.3920-30) for a while. Lets see. I have shorts from 1.3926 and 1.3934 . Bullish trend is weak.

(just my opinion regarding outlook and news)
Its not an advice and sorry for grammar.
  • #895,222
  • May 6, 2014 5:57am May 6, 2014 5:57am
May I quote from your homepage Citiboy?
http://trendersgame.com/2014/04/30/euro-99-problems/
  • #895,223
  • May 6, 2014 5:59am May 6, 2014 5:59am
Quoting oundar
extremly overbought but bullish at the moment.1.3950 will be serious resistance. Banks are buying mostly.So we are in between sharks. It may go down to 1.388x or will go back and stand in this levels (1.3920-30) for a while. Lets see. I have shorts from 1.3926 and 1.3934 . Bullish trend is weak. (just my opinion regarding outlook and news)
"Overbought"is a subjective term used by traders who are losing taking the short position.We've heard that EU has been over bought for almost a year now. When will that term be put to rest?
Keep your Pip-drawdown low. That is the key to using high equity + high lev
  • #895,224
  • May 6, 2014 5:59am May 6, 2014 5:59am
Quoting BlazeHun
May I quote from your homepage Citiboy? http://trendersgame.com/2014/04/30/euro-99-problems/

I will make sure I PM you long and annoying gloats when the time comes. thanks for the hits though
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #895,225
  • May 6, 2014 6:00am May 6, 2014 6:00am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} I will make sure I PM you long and annoying gloats when the time comes.
TX in advance!
  • #895,226
  • May 6, 2014 6:05am May 6, 2014 6:05am
Quoting ScalpLikeMe
{quote} "Overbought"is a subjective term used by traders who are losing taking the short position.We've heard that EU has been over bought for almost a year now. When will that term be put to rest?
Just my trader shows this signal not a human. Now its showing hammer candlestick. Thats mean is bullish trend is on but it may go back to opening levels later. I hate the terms too. I will try to not use again regards.
Its not an advice and sorry for grammar.
  • #895,227
  • May 6, 2014 6:12am May 6, 2014 6:12am
Quoting chazzle
Eyeing USDCHF for poss. turning points on Euro ... a touch of 8725 and I might just go for it
8728 low print so far - opened EU short at 13942 ... let's see ...
  • #895,228
  • May 6, 2014 6:13am May 6, 2014 6:13am
Do you think a break above 3950 will happen today !!!!
  • #895,229
  • May 6, 2014 6:13am May 6, 2014 6:13am
i think you get the absolute capitulation of 1.40/1.70/101 then the turn will happen
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #895,230
  • May 6, 2014 6:15am May 6, 2014 6:15am
One other thing we fail to notice. We have seen such a strong move to the upside before the trade balance. Should E/U stay exactly where it is now, we will see a big chance of a pull back as profit taking will likely occur. We see these things over and over again, and we fail to react accordingly to it. E/U is currently 40 pips above it's last daily pivot.
Keep your Pip-drawdown low. That is the key to using high equity + high lev
  • #895,231
  • May 6, 2014 6:16am May 6, 2014 6:16am
EURUSD heading for 1.40? It is on the radar but faces a key obstacle.

See what may lie ahead in my Daily Forex Trading Outlook

Inserted Video
  • #895,232
  • May 6, 2014 6:20am May 6, 2014 6:20am
Quoting chazzle
{quote} EA D1 indeed - zooming out we can see the last few days have been a neckline test on the H&S - mine was just a scalp I still see a push into the 030/060 area on the cards - but would not be surprised if, from there , we sold off very sharply {image}
suprise!
  • #895,233
  • May 6, 2014 6:23am May 6, 2014 6:23am
Quoting oundar
{quote} Just my trader shows this signal not a human. Now its showing hammer candlestick. Thats mean is bullish trend is on but it may go back to opening levels later. I hate the terms too. I will try to not use again regards.
That's one of the problems with indicators, they show "overbought" "oversold" when in reality there's no such thing. It cannot be "overbought" as I think you realise.

In a strong trend or move ALL indicators will be pointing in the direction of the movement, all the indicators do is follow where the price has gone .. they're mostly useless in that regard. The real use from those high/low indicated levels imo comes from using them to get back on board with the trend move by looking for exhaustion on retracement moves, not trying to pick tops or bottoms. Or when price is range/channel bound you can use them to help confirm entries for trading back through the range.

They can be used also at certain price levels that you have defined as likely turning points and look for divergences as further confirmation to take a reversal trade but by the time you can do that with consistent success it is likely you'll be able to pick those areas and read the price action without the indicator anyway.
  • #895,234
  • May 6, 2014 6:25am May 6, 2014 6:25am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} suprise!
yep - this mofo moves like oil sometimes
  • #895,235
  • May 6, 2014 6:28am May 6, 2014 6:28am
US intervention into the escalating Ukraine crisis becomes major negative for the US Dollar as market participant percieves that the conflict can damp the recovery of US.
  • #895,236
  • May 6, 2014 6:30am May 6, 2014 6:30am
Quoting Citiboy
i think you get the absolute capitulation of 1.40/1.70/101 then the turn will happen
Why 1.4? Why not 1.42-3 as a better level? Looking out at the weekly chart here.

At the moment we've just been constantly grinding up into the highs, chipping away, you don't see this having a euphoric run of a couple hundred more pips before any reversal? Most trends end in bang, a one last hurrahhh as the last of the sheep finally realise "this is a bull move!" and get on only to have the tables turned. The ECB aren't waiting for "that last 40 pips of movement" before stepping in (if they actually can counter this up trend (and if they truly even want to), another rate drop perhaps, but direct QE is illegal under european constitution isn't it? you'll know more about this than me I suspect) It's going to take a hard push for them to take some sort of definitive action and a push like this would take us into levels previously shown to be too high for the EURUSD from a supply/demand perspective.

What do you think?
  • #895,237
  • May 6, 2014 6:34am May 6, 2014 6:34am
Quoting chazzle
{quote} 8728 low print so far - opened EU short at 13942 ... let's see ...
UCHF M15

seeing mom. div. on ltf chart just ahead of the key level of 8725 , which is encouraging
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #895,238
  • May 6, 2014 6:36am May 6, 2014 6:36am
Quoting chazzle
{quote} UCHF M15 seeing mom. div. on ltf chart just ahead of the key level of 8725 , which is encouraging {image}
USDX in zone that often bounces after it is broken.

its chipping away at the last levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-h1-forex-ltd.png Size: 81 KB
  • #895,239
  • May 6, 2014 6:40am May 6, 2014 6:40am
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} USDX in zone that often bounces after it is broken. its chipping away at the last levels. {image}
not got USDX chart up atm - but not surprised where it is - with swissy at weekly support
  • #895,240
  • May 6, 2014 6:44am May 6, 2014 6:44am
Quoting AlanB
{quote} Why 1.4? Why not 1.42-3 as a better level? It's going to take a hard push for them to take some sort of definitive action and a push like this would take us into levels previously shown to be too high for the EURUSD from a supply/demand perspective. What do you think?
Ideal level for me is 1.4050-1.4100. Im just saying that because I think trading above 1.400 will send it higher just on the stop loss runs. I dont have a technical trigger, Im just looking for particular developments in other markets/ and or fundamental catalysts.

When it comes down to it they really have no way of fighting Euro strength outside of FX interventions. Sovereign bond QE isnt exactly legal. Rate cuts will just produce a dip that is bought. The main issue is the world sees European assets as "cheap" compared to their volatility/risk, so there is endless bid for Euro.

However this same reasoning of "QE will never happen" will bite them in the end. Whenever US rates start climbing again, people will probably start selling periphery bonds and bailing on the Eurozone.(Rising US yields will lift all global yields in developed markets) Its a circular conundrum. Rising Eurozone CPI will actually probably do more to bring the Euro down at this point, because the falling CPI is whats pushed periphery bond prices up to frothy levels.

Before theres any EUR weakness, the rally in periphery bonds has to end. The flows have to go in reverse.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
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