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  • #894,601
  • May 2, 2014 10:29am May 2, 2014 10:29am
on bonds volume.... if you needed to buy a shit ton of bonds today would be the day to do it eh?


payrolls hits and all the smarty pants hedges funds start selling bonds. chinese step in..."mine mine mine". zoom.


same china reserves theme.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #894,602
  • May 2, 2014 10:29am May 2, 2014 10:29am
Quoting Citiboy
Dollar bulls can just take todays step as being closer to the overall fundmental picture you need for a long term dollar rally. the short term flows are not in our favor, but those flows are not permanent. This could play into our hands on the Euro side next week though, Draghi must be pissed.
Every rally in the dollar since the FOMC has been sold. We are likely to see 78 on the DX. Outside of headline excitement, the grass is brown on the other side.

The taper is irrelevant, while an interest rate hike would benefit the dollar, it is unlikely it will happen within the year. Not willing to stay behind the dollar that long.

Equities are unwilling to breach highs even on good news (nobody pays attention to the DOW). Likely heading down again
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #894,603
  • May 2, 2014 10:30am May 2, 2014 10:30am
Quoting JohnIsShort
This the timeline of events I have: Copper started the move => Gold followed => EURUSD (Dollar) followed almost the same time as gold => Bonds => rates All the moves correlate with a growth accelarating view, with USD dollar being used as a funding currency.
growth accelarating with the support of the FED
About Equities, don't pay attention to that, its being ruled by 12 years old, they are not pricing anything for a long time now, its just a emotional rollar coster, very enjoyable
  • #894,604
  • May 2, 2014 10:31am May 2, 2014 10:31am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} true. but you wont make millions scalping.

Didn't say anything about scalping or other trading styles?
  • #894,605
  • May 2, 2014 10:31am May 2, 2014 10:31am
Quoting Citiboy
on bonds volume.... if you needed to buy a shit ton of bonds today would be the day to do it eh? payrolls hits and all the smarty pants hedges funds start selling bonds. chinese step in..."mine mine mine". zoom. same china reserves theme.
Does it ever strike anybody that the economy just isn't that grand and the S&P is up over 130% in five years?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #894,606
  • May 2, 2014 10:33am May 2, 2014 10:33am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Every rally in the dollar since the FOMC has been sold. We are likely to see 78 on the DX. Outside of headline excitement, the grass is brown on the other side. The taper is irrelevant, while an interest rate hike would benefit the dollar, it is unlikely it will happen within the year. Not willing to stay behind the dollar that long. Equities are unwilling to breach highs even on good news (nobody pays attention to the DOW). Likely heading down again
of course I pay attention to spx and dow everyday, and bonds everyday. Did not forget Nikkei and DAX yet
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #894,607
  • May 2, 2014 10:35am May 2, 2014 10:35am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Every rally in the dollar since the FOMC has been sold. We are likely to see 78 on the DX. Outside of headline excitement, the grass is brown on the other side. The taper is irrelevant, while an interest rate hike would benefit the dollar, it is unlikely it will happen within the year. Not willing to stay behind the dollar that long. Equities are unwilling to breach highs even on good news (nobody pays attention to the DOW). Likely heading down again

all true, still think the story here isnt even about the US.


There is a Dollar seller out there.... multiple dollar sellers.... Led by the Chinese and oil exporters since the early 2000s. this flow is going to die out this year. this trade isnt for scalpers.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #894,608
  • May 2, 2014 10:35am May 2, 2014 10:35am
Quoting ill_be_back
Short GJ @ 173.114
Will Hold this over the weekend
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #894,609
  • May 2, 2014 10:36am May 2, 2014 10:36am
My little opinion is that no trade direction is certain as there will be a lot of market tremor this weekend. Monday will still surprise a lot of people with a very big Jump....... Beware!!!
  • #894,610
  • May 2, 2014 10:37am May 2, 2014 10:37am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Does it ever strike anybody that the economy just isn't that grand and the S&P is up over 130% in five years?
We have the steepest run last 5 years in history http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post7384326
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #894,611
  • May 2, 2014 10:38am May 2, 2014 10:38am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Does it ever strike anybody that the economy just isn't that grand and the S&P is up over 130% in five years?

why not? you got 3 trillion printed in the last 18 months.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #894,612
  • May 2, 2014 10:39am May 2, 2014 10:39am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} of course I pay attention to spx and dow everyday, and bonds everyday. Did not forget Nikkei and DAX yet
In the big scheme of things, DOW is like following the ASX. It's so narrow. Following Goldman Sachs won't tell you much about the broader economy.

S&P holds more water, which was my point. So, a little less snark.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #894,613
  • May 2, 2014 10:40am May 2, 2014 10:40am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} all true, still think the story here isnt even about the US. There is a Dollar seller out there.... multiple dollar sellers.... Led by the Chinese and oil exporters since the early 2000s. this flow is going to die out this year. this trade isnt for scalpers.
we have to ask why china sell the dollar. If the dollar can preserve its value china wont sell its dollar reserve. Just because the Fed devaluate the dollar, china has no choice, has to diversify.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #894,614
  • May 2, 2014 10:40am May 2, 2014 10:40am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} why not? you got 3 trillion printed in the last 18 months.
Exactly, and it's got us next to nowhere except bubble town
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #894,615
  • May 2, 2014 10:43am May 2, 2014 10:43am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Exactly, and it's got us next to nowhere except bubble town
ya its obviously not sustainable. this is all going to go horribly wrong with 2-3 years.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #894,616
  • May 2, 2014 10:44am May 2, 2014 10:44am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} ya its obviously not sustainable. this is all going to go horribly wrong with 2-3 years.
people have no money to buy houses. it is going to be people have no money to buy food soon.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #894,617
  • May 2, 2014 10:46am May 2, 2014 10:46am
Mario Draghi is obviously crying under his desk tonight.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #894,618
  • May 2, 2014 10:46am May 2, 2014 10:46am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} people have no money to buy houses. it is going to be people have no money to buy food soon.
but rat has time to giggle
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #894,619
  • May 2, 2014 10:48am May 2, 2014 10:48am
Quoting Citiboy
Mario Draghi is obviously crying under his desk tonight.
I dont think he cares at all. He's just a civil servant, they go home at 6 and forget about their work
  • #894,620
  • May 2, 2014 10:48am May 2, 2014 10:48am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} We have the steepest run last 5 years in history http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post7384326
Right, thank you for supporting my point. A mediocre economy have averages 2.5 percent growth and an index that made 45+ new highs in the last 16 months.

Quoting ffleo
{quote} people have no money to buy houses. it is going to be people have no money to buy food soon.
And that supports current levels?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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