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  • #893,881
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:13am Apr 30, 2014 11:13am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} flows and fundamentals are going in opposite directions. US fundamentals for the most part have been good as of late, while Europe has been bad. But right now, and this has been the case more or less since July 2013... markets ignore the fundamentals due to flows. Flows for european banks to deleverage in preparation for the stress test...flows related to M&A deals...and in my opinion the one that matters the most by far... China flows. The rate of increase in their FX reserves has accelerated massively since they starting printing Yuan...
  • #893,882
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:13am Apr 30, 2014 11:13am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} flows and fundamentals are going in opposite directions. US fundamentals for the most part have been good as of late, while Europe has been bad. But right now, and this has been the case more or less since July 2013... markets ignore the fundamentals due to flows. Flows for european banks to deleverage in preparation for the stress test...flows related to M&A deals...and in my opinion the one that matters the most by far... China flows. The rate of increase in their FX reserves has accelerated massively since they starting printing Yuan...
where to see the agents of the Chinese central bank ? sorry of my english.
  • #893,883
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:17am Apr 30, 2014 11:17am
Quoting lqsky88
{quote} where to see the agents of the Chinese central bank ? sorry of my english.

haha, nobody knows. they have shell entities all over the world so nobody knows who own what. The only clue that it is Chinese flow is the size.

Check out this article -http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027105/suspicion-grows-that-china-is-exporting-deflation-worldwide-by-driving-down-yuan/

Quote:
It gave a strong hint that China is disguising its reserve accumulation. You don’t have to dig hard. Simon Derrick from BNY Mellon said a recent buying spree of US Treasuries and agency debt by Belgium of all places looks like a Chinese front.
Holdings by entities in Belgium have jumped to $341bn from $169bn last August. This would appear to explain how China’s FX reserves have kept rising to $3.95 trillion even as its custody holdings in the US itself have been falling. If so, China is playing dirty pool.


Their reserves are up to 4 trillion, its just too much money to manage at this point. These guys aren't sophisticated either, I doubt they actually know what they're doing. The size of their flows just bulldoze everything in sight, creating new trends simply based on what they're buying.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #893,884
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:23am Apr 30, 2014 11:23am
how to explane the gbp nzd chf jpy ? each of them go long。 all of them because of Chinese central bank?
thank's
  • #893,885
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:27am Apr 30, 2014 11:27am
Quoting lqsky88
how to explane the gbp nzd chf jpy ? each of them go long。 all of them because of Chinese central bank? thank's

all those currencies are moving because of their own fundamental picture more or less. CHF is has a cap at 1.20 in EURCHF, so its basically pegged to the Euro.

GBP is up because the UK is doing well, and rate hikes are expected

NZD up because the RBNZ is already hiking rates

JPY is ranging because the market is unsure how much more easing is coming. (bank of japan has been printing $580-$680bn per year since April 2013)
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #893,886
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:38am Apr 30, 2014 11:38am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} haha, nobody knows. they have shell entities all over the world so nobody knows who own what. The only clue that it is Chinese flow is the size. Check out this article -http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027105/suspicion-grows-that-china-is-exporting-deflation-worldwide-by-driving-down-yuan/ Quote: It gave a strong hint that China is disguising its reserve accumulation. You don’t have to dig hard. Simon Derrick from BNY Mellon said a recent buying spree of US Treasuries and agency debt by Belgium of all places...
Why are the Chinese doing this and what is their goals in doing so?
  • #893,887
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:42am Apr 30, 2014 11:42am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} flows and fundamentals are going in opposite directions. US fundamentals for the most part have been good as of late, while Europe has been bad. But right now, and this has been the case more or less since July 2013... markets ignore the fundamentals due to flows. Flows for european banks to deleverage in preparation for the stress test...flows related to M&A deals...and in my opinion the one that matters the most by far... China flows. The rate of increase in their FX reserves has accelerated massively since they starting printing Yuan...
Wise words, Citi
  • #893,888
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:42am Apr 30, 2014 11:42am
just now .....Federal Funds Rate will publish... , USA government cuts in QE。 all those currencies go long... right now!!!!
  • #893,889
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:45am Apr 30, 2014 11:45am
what's worry those currencies......
  • #893,890
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:47am Apr 30, 2014 11:47am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This is called Trade Management or Ego Satisfaction. They call short but go long . This way, they either make snack money or get few subscriptions
Since i have a feeling you are talking about me, i would really appreciate if you speak directly ... be confronting, if you have enough courage or convection! Instead of hiding behind sarcasm or the collective of morons, let's talk trading and calls. For now, this is the third time or maybe forth you call $1.40. Which not only you failed to provide a backup plan, but went into lecturing on capital preservation. However, a call is a call and this time it seems you are right ... elaborate, if you can!

As for switching to the long side, i expressed my short basis 13th of April and switched back few days early Monday's when i expressed " Buying momentum is building up"

Quote
“As last week gap remained unfilled, while price could not proceed below $1.38 level. It’s least likely the gap will hold back any price advancing.The plan is to wait for price to reach the lowest/highest bound first, of current range $1.3750 -1.37850 and take the opposite direction. One thing is certain, buying momentum is building up.
The Awaited Bounce Off $1.38/APRIL 27, 2014
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #893,891
  • Apr 30, 2014 11:53am Apr 30, 2014 11:53am
Quoting irongoose
{quote} Why are the Chinese doing this and what is their goals in doing so?

They are the second largest economy in the world, but their currency doesnt float. Its pegged to the dollar. That way they can export trillions in goods and their currency will never go up. The downside of this is that as they perpetually intervene (print Yuan) to keep the currency from appreciating, they accumulate these huge pools of money that they 'invest'.

And by "invest" I mean buy up billions in mortgage backed securities (2003-2007)... or billions in periphery debt(2012-???). The whole thing just continuously creates imbalances.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #893,892
  • Apr 30, 2014 12:00pm Apr 30, 2014 12:00pm
One more hour ... It's seem dangerous to even buy or sell EU or any USD pair right now..

I bet my house on short @ 1.3866 now ....
I guess I'll close it when it broke down a bit...
This isn't a bad place to short at all...
short GBP earlier @ 1.6892 but closed out too early but EU heading north.
  • #893,893
  • Apr 30, 2014 12:03pm Apr 30, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} They are the second largest economy in the world, but their currency doesnt float. Its pegged to the dollar. That way they can export trillions in goods and their currency will never go up. The downside of this is that as they perpetually intervene (print Yuan) to keep the currency from appreciating, they accumulate these huge pools of money that they 'invest'. And by "invest" I mean buy up billions in mortgage backed securities (2003-2007)... or billions in periphery debt(2012-???). The whole thing just continuously creates imbalances.
the more crazier side story is that they have bought a crap ton of usd treasury bonds too. Besides its the Chinese I seem them able to just hoard gold just so they can bring out a international yuan that is semi based on gold. just to get even more inflows of money.
Past glory means nothing on the battlefield
  • #893,894
  • Apr 30, 2014 12:06pm Apr 30, 2014 12:06pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} They are the second largest economy in the world, but their currency doesnt float. Its pegged to the dollar. That way they can export trillions in goods and their currency will never go up. The downside of this is that as they perpetually intervene (print Yuan) to keep the currency from appreciating, they accumulate these huge pools of money that they 'invest'. And by "invest" I mean buy up billions in mortgage backed securities (2003-2007)... or billions in periphery debt(2012-???). The whole thing just continuously creates imbalances.
So by doing this is it possible they are enjoying the benefits of having a weak currency to export goods and by using their printed money to buy other currencies with enjoying the benefits of those currencies strengths for imports?
  • #893,895
  • Apr 30, 2014 12:08pm Apr 30, 2014 12:08pm
i was expecting either blue or red ,,, !!
none of which happen !! -- i am just confused that what FOMC Meeting can actually bring to it -- but honestly I feel something about 1.3790 for actually NO REASON -- correct me if m wrong!!
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rules are different here. Less risk, more profit .. !!
  • #893,896
  • Apr 30, 2014 12:09pm Apr 30, 2014 12:09pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} So by doing this is it possible they are enjoying the benefits of having a weak currency to export goods and by using their printed money to buy other currencies with enjoying the benefits of those currencies strengths for imports?


...thruth...
  • #893,897
  • Apr 30, 2014 12:11pm Apr 30, 2014 12:11pm
Quoting eitan1010
{quote} as wrote here before...do the opposite from most of the ppl.. is the best indicator.. {image}
I believe 1.3905 will be the turn around area for The Euro. By then all the shorts should be stopped out and the Market Makers will be ready to move price down.
  • #893,898
  • Apr 30, 2014 12:11pm Apr 30, 2014 12:11pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} So by doing this is it possible they are enjoying the benefits of having a weak currency to export goods and by using their printed money to buy other currencies with enjoying the benefits of those currencies strengths for imports?


Its a genius system, the only problem is they can never sell their reserves without blowing up the global economy lol. I assume something like this will occur in the next 3 years or so.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #893,899
  • Apr 30, 2014 12:15pm Apr 30, 2014 12:15pm
BTW Russian foreign currency reserves are bigger then all EU
Gold reserves we can only imagine...
  • #893,900
  • Apr 30, 2014 12:22pm Apr 30, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting Beli
BTW Russian foreign currency reserves are bigger then all EU Gold reserves we can only imagine...
http://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=144
swing it!
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