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  • #893,041
  • Apr 28, 2014 7:58am Apr 28, 2014 7:58am
So i said to my wife, Forex is so fun!!! This morning she looked at my computer when i was browing everything and i showed her GBP/USD. I was long and in 2 minutes the bars were way up there. She almost had an orgasm, now 5hours later she came back and watched the rate. But...it is the same she told me. I facepalmed and said, no girl uhuuuu, its 2 pips up!


Best husband ever!
A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need advice
  • #893,042
  • Apr 28, 2014 7:59am Apr 28, 2014 7:59am
Quoting kuroro001
Good thing EU is rising, i want Europe to burn
hey man - take it easy.
On a side note, things are not drammatic as news shows. Just bought a new boat and it is seriously difficult to find a spot at the marina, seems like a lot of new buyers recently.
  • #893,043
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:00am Apr 28, 2014 8:00am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Generally I ingore fundamental aspects - it's just too compliacated when it comes to FX.. Or at least - too compliacated for me
It can get tricky most certainly as many things can be going on that we are not aware of. I think if we start paying too much attention to MSM, thinking we will get the full story from Bloomberg or other msm sources instead of digging a little deeper to find other Cogs pushing the wheels of price, then we are sadly misinformed.
Very basic and unfortunately over publicized fundamentals aside, here is a technical chart for you.

From my own point of view, this month seems quite important if we close above 3700 resistance turned support area

After closing above the first descending TL and 1.37 resistance, if we do close again above the next (and main) descending trendline, it could be what looks like an entry into an 800 pip trading range between 1.37 and the next AscendingTL /descending TL / Resistance confluence point at 1.45xx.

If we do close this week/month bullish, and since we are above the main ema's for the weekly and monthly, I'll be watching the 4hr and Daily 55 and 200ema's/support/fibs confluences to look for PA clues to buy.

Will be an interesting April-June Quarter I think.

All the best
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #893,044
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:03am Apr 28, 2014 8:03am
Quoting attila
{quote} I was wrong last night about consolidation. It seems like that then. The road is to the upside.
I wish, nothing will clear the direction till price reach above $1.39 ... but this week has two important central banks statements, so price could be just warming!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #893,045
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:04am Apr 28, 2014 8:04am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Could you post your trades in real time please or stop posting BS numbers
he is one of the ones you should pay attention to.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #893,046
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:05am Apr 28, 2014 8:05am
Quoting math_GB
{quote} Post of the day.... I wished many would understand what that means, I really do. Vol increases when the underlying price is dropping, low volatility reflects that the market tendency is the price going up, rather then down. At least it will be a range market for a little while. Very good Kuroro... This may be the bears pushing the price up to piss off weak shorters or maybe not, I don't know that yet but the price can not drop while the vol is staying here.
Hi Math,

How you measure volatility in short term?
Thanks
  • #893,047
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:06am Apr 28, 2014 8:06am
Quoting Martingale
{quote} hey man - take it easy. On a side note, things are not drammatic as news shows. Just bought a new boat and it is seriously difficult to find a spot at the marina, seems like a lot of new buyers recently.
haha
  • #893,048
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:07am Apr 28, 2014 8:07am
Quoting math_GB
{quote} Post of the day.... I wished many would understand what that means, I really do. Vol increases when the underlying price is dropping, low volatility reflects that the market tendency is the price going up, rather then down. At least it will be a range market for a little while. Very good Kuroro... This may be the bears pushing the price up to piss off weak shorters or maybe not, I don't know that yet but the price can not drop while the vol is staying here.
This week we could see the volatilty back, it should be interesting. But i'm still waiting for this crap pair.

I guess its all eyes on CPI on wednesday
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #893,049
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:08am Apr 28, 2014 8:08am
Quoting Martingale
{quote} hey man - take it easy. On a side note, things are not drammatic as news shows. Just bought a new boat and it is seriously difficult to find a spot at the marina, seems like a lot of new buyers recently.
You are a lucky dude then

All i can say is France will be hit soon, and hard.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #893,050
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:08am Apr 28, 2014 8:08am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} he is one of the ones you should pay attention to.
Agreed
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #893,051
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:13am Apr 28, 2014 8:13am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Hi Math, How you measure volatility in short term? Thanks
It is the implied volatility you need to pay attention to Pasha. You can google various - no fee - sources in case you can not find a proper source, drop me a PM. I just don't want to provide any sources here. The current 3M vol is atm 5.84%, which is extremely low, actually reminds me of the vol just before the 2008 crisis hit... These are clearly the times to be extra careful, if it starts dropping, it will be brutal, however no sign of it atm.
  • #893,052
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:13am Apr 28, 2014 8:13am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} This week we could see the volatilty back, it should be interesting. But i'm still waiting for this crap pair. I guess its all eyes on CPI on wednesday
Of course
  • #893,053
  • Edited 8:26am Apr 28, 2014 8:14am | Edited 8:26am
However ~1.38650 is cracked and the most bear patterns are invalidated by this move, until there is no new high (~1.39057), it's shitty to buy over ~1.38200 (if you're not scalping)...it would be too easy to wait for the retest, get in, and fly away...no-no-no..
Does anyone agree or everybody already aiming 1.39xxx-1.40000?

Edit: did not even fill the gap (by 1pip!), and this is a common 'fu*k you retailers' move by CB's...
f(z)=z2+c
  • #893,054
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:24am Apr 28, 2014 8:24am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Finally some proper movement in Euro. 1.4 mark and much higher in view. Other hesitation/correction areas are at: 1.4020's, 1.4080/120's, 1.4240/280's, 1.4520/630's
i can see it, and also see bearish reasons.. i have been getting some low risk shorts and tp a portion and holding the rest. s/o most of those so far. fomc pump? i have us going to 4146 since last summer. but most times we go to 3102 before (we never made it to 3102 or 4146). 4146 is very valid for me, my dilemma is we never went to 3102, a large mid at 3957 and a large LM that targets .86 at the current high to the pip at 3965. so i will be looking to short in that area (if we get there) because since 1876 we have made the normal 2 humps. atm we are near the close where dragis made the speech over that weekend. that close was 3885 ish..atm we haven't crossed it. i am not married to any trade
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #893,055
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:25am Apr 28, 2014 8:25am
Quoting hathor
However ~1.38650 is cracked and the most bear patterns are invalidated by this move, until there is no new high (~1.39057), it's shitty to buy over ~1.38200 (if you're not scalping)...it would be too easy to wait for the retest, get in, and fly away...no-no-no.. Does anyone agree or everybody already aiming 1.39xxx-1.40000? Edit: did not even fill the gap, and this is a common 'fu*k you retailer' move by CB's...
I hope your wrong
A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need advice
  • #893,056
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:27am Apr 28, 2014 8:27am
Quoting Nocturnes
{quote} I hope your wrong
there is high probability I'm wrong, so don't change your trade plan please...I'm just thinking loud. 4 years live trading experience teached me that the forex market is like an illusionist...you watch the left hand, while the trick happens with the right...but sometimes no need to be paranoid. Maybe this is one.

Edit: looks like I'm a party-pooper
Edit2: On the other hand Likerty is right in that 1.37800 was 'too' strong..bears had planty of time and data to crack that...
f(z)=z2+c
  • #893,057
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:39am Apr 28, 2014 8:39am
Quoting hathor
{quote} there is high probability I'm wrong, so don't change your trade plan please...I'm just thinking loud. 4 years live trading experience teached me that the forex market is like an illusionist...you watch the left hand, while the trick happens with the right...but sometimes no need to be paranoid. Maybe this is one. Edit: looks like I'm a party-pooper Edit2: On the other hand Likerty is right in that 1.37800 was 'too' strong..bears had planty of time and data to crack that...
But...but...i'm a bear....a very cute one!

Attached Image


But most likely....nothing will happen @ 4pm. Pretty sure of it, just a couple of tits up and after that a couple of tits down just to bring her back where she was.
A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need advice
  • #893,058
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:41am Apr 28, 2014 8:41am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} And we have that stupid retail gap up there that everybody and his dog are targeting
Probably won't get there. I see everything I need to enter a possibly epic short before it does.
  • #893,059
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:41am Apr 28, 2014 8:41am
While Draghi's comments seem unable to drive the Euro down I think that deep down everyone is just waiting for that moment when they realize the ECB is close to action and then there will be a major sell off. I'm new here so don't go to harsh on me =D Just my thoughts so far.
  • #893,060
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:45am Apr 28, 2014 8:45am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Probably won't get there. I see everything I need to enter a possibly epic short before it does.
hathor,
now this one is really nasty party-pooper haha
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