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  • #892,741
  • Apr 26, 2014 10:03am Apr 26, 2014 10:03am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Hey Magix, How do I start learning about EA's? (not Eur/Aud)

What do you want to know KW?

How to code?
How they work?

Which ones to use?

In the Platform Tech Section here, there is a lot of information as well as a zillion posts by Hopwood...That's where I got my feet wet with these.

I think you already probably know the basics with Automated trading, you maybe just haven't delved deep into the subject before.

Really, all they are typically designed to do, is to take triggers when they are told and profit as is dictated and replace the human factors of trading.

When you go to take a trade, you analyze the chart, specific to your optics, ranges and time frames. You take an entry based on this looking for a profit of your specific ranges...this is what you would want to find in a base EA and learn to work with it's parameters and trade logic.

The market will move when ever it wants to, at its own pace and on its own clock. Being around for the 24/5 market week and watching every active pair is tough...so...find something that makes sense, something that would trade like you do, or something that is already active, successful and that you can learn from.

OR

Build one.

Maybe not personally, but with the help of others.
Determine what criteria existed before you would take a trade, what exists currently and where you would find a happy profit or where you would cut your losses. Be specific and off of this, you should be able to find something that can get you started.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #892,742
  • Apr 26, 2014 10:10am Apr 26, 2014 10:10am
I don't comment much on these threads as I don't like to share charts much anymore. But in my opinion, this pair won't dump until we've at least filled the professional gap from last week. Interestingly, Oanda's position of traders has an astounding 70% of their traders in active short positions versus 30% long. Now they don't represent all of retail, but that's a pretty strong signal to me that most of retail is still trying to short. So in order for institutional traders to go short (if that is the plan), they're going to need to inflict some pain on you and I. The way price action has been the last couple weeks, it looks like they're just taking their time whipsawing stop losses here to accumulate their short positions while you lose money. Just my two cents.

(Most of these charts have been stripped of all but relevant content)

Showing the pro gap.
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Weekly area of strong selling with prolonged upward move.
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  • #892,743
  • Apr 26, 2014 10:17am Apr 26, 2014 10:17am
Hey Guys,

I don't see much happening here until the rate decision on Thursday. I do forsee a possible drop with all the talk from the ECB saying they want to weaken Euro. Historically speaking, over the last 5 years the Euro has been in a range as low as 1.1964 and as high as 1.5009. This high was established on Nov 26th of 2009. We have not touched this high since. The next high was established at 1.4842 on April 28th of 2011. Keep in mind after these highs were established, we saw a sharp selloff shortly after. On another note, if you were to draw a down trendline on the 10 year chart, it's clear we broke that trendline on Oct 29th of last year. This could signal a higher move up as well. I'm not going to say sell and I'm not going to say buy. Just watch your charts, and keep these trading ranges in mind. Happy trading!

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http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...to=USD&view=5Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=USD&view=10Y
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #892,744
  • Apr 26, 2014 10:34am Apr 26, 2014 10:34am
Quoting pedro319
AUDUSD Why did price drop 200 pips? Some people would say it was the fundamentals.. I would just say it was .707 Retracement (last swing) on weekly chart + Monthly pivot Resistance 1 + Yearly central pivot!! Price should keep going down for a few weeks and I don't expect it to take out previous lows but will have to see about that. I will be using all retracements on 4 hours or even daily (at precise Fibonacci levels + weekly Pivots) to sell. I will post them whenever possible. {image}
hey owl, you have good eyes to see things.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #892,745
  • Apr 26, 2014 11:00am Apr 26, 2014 11:00am
How to avoid disaster trades in a system that uses signals? In the following equity chart, there are two clusters of disaster trades. I would say this is a good system, because it is pretty consistent, and the disaster trades happened only in two narrow clusters. How to improve this system? The thing I would do is to average all the gains or find the sigma of the gains of all the trades that do not include the disaster trades. Then compare the drawdown of trades in the two disaster clusters. The clusters of disaster trades have a pattern, i.e., they happen one after another immediately, usually for 4 or 5 trades one after another. I would compare the first two disaster trade drawdown compared to the sigma of all the trades that I can keep going. Write a criteria that if trades happen twice with drawdown bigger than some ratio of the sigma, then sit out next 2 or 3 trades that will be generated by signal.

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #892,746
  • Apr 26, 2014 11:15am Apr 26, 2014 11:15am
Quoting ffleo
How to avoid disaster trades in a system that uses signals? In the following equity chart, there are two clusters of disaster trades. I would say this is a good system, because it is pretty consistent, and the disaster trades happened only in two narrow clusters. How to improve this system? The thing I would do is to average all the gains or find the sigma of the gains of all the trades that do not include the disaster trades. Then compare the drawdown of trades in the two disaster clusters. The clusters of disaster trades have a pattern, i.e.,...
Interesting...and a fair analysis, albeit completely blind.

The average profit of the net closed trades is $1, as that is the logic...take a trade and close for a dollar profit. Cost average as necessary...

What you cannot see by a simple graph is how many trades are taken per pair based on this logic before it actually hits this dollar profit.

We have analyzed the logic and have looked at doing the sit out or tap out after a certain number of levels are hit, but ultimately speaking, these are typically exceptional times per market, (where you see the disaster trades). From here, it becomes a waiting game.

When we analyze the equity curves based on FORWARD data and trading only, we can also implement our own personality and thresholds into the exit strategies. For the longest time, I have only used the EAs for Entries and Manually closed. Recently, I have gone to range dynamics so that even if the net of all trades is underwater, it will look to minimize the losses by continuing on a path until a counter trigger has been generated. Long until short, short until long.

When using a Cost Average Strategy and applying it to markets, be it manual or automated, I will always be of the mind that setting a STATIC or HARD stoploss is completely moronic.

There is always a retrace, and typically speaking, that retrace will shorten the losses and still allow you to maximize gains on range.

Think about it..

You take a long...it goes underwater.
Your trade system tells you to take another long, it too goes underwater.

You set a hard stop loss, it gets triggered....NOW WHAT?
Are you going to sit out the next long signal?
What if this is the one that will move back to prosperity? Or will you now only wait for Shorts and short into a retrace?

This is where a lot of trade logic and new traders fail. They lose several times trading one direction, and by the time they actually hit into the trend, it is already at the end and is reversing, consequently draining the account on the opposite...

The application of our logic is that even a broken clock will be correct 2x per day. If we are continuously wrong in our assessment, at some point we will be correct. When we are correct, we minimize losses or move back into profit ranges. Then we sit and wait for the next set of triggers.

Good thoughts, ffleo...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #892,747
  • Apr 26, 2014 11:26am Apr 26, 2014 11:26am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Interesting...and a fair analysis, albeit completely blind. The average profit of the net closed trades is $1, as that is the logic...take a trade and close for a dollar profit. Cost average as necessary... What you cannot see by a simple graph is how many trades are taken per pair based on this logic before it actually hits this dollar profit. We have analyzed the logic and have looked at doing the sit out or tap out after a certain number of levels are hit, but ultimately speaking, these are typically exceptional times per market, (where...
So you do have some sitting out criteria to avoid trades that are not displayed on the equity curve. I do believe cost averaging is a good strategy to trade as long as the total risk is controlled under certain level. I am using this strategy, Davit uses it, Tau uses it, and many use it.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #892,748
  • Apr 26, 2014 11:50am Apr 26, 2014 11:50am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} So you do have some sitting out criteria to avoid trades that are not displayed on the equity curve. I do believe cost averaging is a good strategy to trade as long as the total risk is controlled under certain level. I am using this strategy, Davit uses it, Tau uses it, and many use it.
Some of the ideas that are already implemented:

- Filtering trades by way of grid and trigger logic - If a pre-defined range is met, only a subsequent trigger will be allowed. This Trigger on Grid is not limited to range but can also be filtered through time. If you want to wait 5 minutes between trades or triggers, set the clock...implement as your own personal optics allow.

- Size of Cost Averaging on Lots - We use both increments and a multiplier. By setting the increment to 0, it will only add the same sized lot as the first. If your first lot is .01, it will, at increment = 0, only add trades that are .01 in size and will still only add these as the Trigger on Grid strategy allows.

- Number of levels or subsequent trades - again, user defined. If you only want to take a single trade or want to limit it to X number of positions, you do exactly this.

- Static, Trigger on Exit and Trigger based Dynamic range for profit. Some of the triggering logic we use are for narrow ranges and having a quick in and out is most logical, where as others are filtered to allow for a greater range of trade by allowing the market and price action as interpreted by specific indicators or trade signal patterns to dictate the size of range.

All of these are specific to the Time Frame and range traded, much the same as any strong manual system that allows for cost averaging would do. If you trade off of an hourly chart, setting a 10 pip grid can be suicide because an hourly candle can easily supersede 10 pips against you. Setting a 5 min delay, is the same on an hourly...can easily get you trapped deep.

Same with profiting. Allow for a narrow range of prosperity and you are likely to see more wins, faster. Allow for a greedy target and you will wait a lot longer.

All of the above are specific to each trader and again all parts of successful manual systems...the success of any tool is based on the hands of the user.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #892,749
  • Apr 26, 2014 11:59am Apr 26, 2014 11:59am
An idea of a STATIC or HARD set profit strategy...

This is an M1 trigger based on M15 filtering for short ranges and is based on the 2 time frames for Stochastics.

Where the trend, under the M1 criteria is defined as a sell, it sees that there is a correction in market and is looking for buys because the M15 is correcting and the M1 is triggering. This logic is such that as soon as the M15 Stochs enters into Overbought Territory, it will sit and wait for the Main to Cross Below the Signal to look for M1 triggers to short.

The indicator at the bottom is the Module that controls the logic of this EA. In this, we can move from time frame to time frame and this will adjust the range of available trades. M5-M30 filtered..H1-D1 filtered...


As this moves into a trend range, setting the static profit to a larger amount is a click away.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #892,750
  • Edited 12:13pm Apr 26, 2014 12:00pm | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting Kanzler
I don't comment much on these threads as I don't like to share charts much anymore. But in my opinion, this pair won't dump until we've at least filled the professional gap from last week. Interestingly, Oanda's position of traders has an astounding 70% of their traders in active short positions versus 30% long. Now they don't represent all of retail, but that's a pretty strong signal to me that most of retail is still trying to short. So in order for institutional traders to go short (if that is the plan), they're going to need to inflict some...
Hi Kanzler
I stopped worrying what retail traders do.I have won so many short positions where retail was hugely short that I no longer think its relevant.
Recent examples
NU vast majority retail short from 86+and guess what it plunged down hard
AU 93+vast majority retail short and it plunged down hard
To me its simply liquidity strength.Retail positions are simply not big enough money wise to move anything so to me its irrelevant.
So far I have not found conclusive evidence to suggest fading retail majority positions is profitable or has statistical edge.
I believe where retail losses its not on direction but tight stop losses.Average SL of 20-30pips is going to get hit.If one takes 4 in a row then that's 100pips down then they go bigger lots to compensate and end up losing even more because inherent SL issues is not addressed.
This is going to shock lot of traders but I will say it.To be truly profitable one must work hard solving SL issue.This is the key.This is one constant that is always there.Solve this and you will be flying.Myself and Magix do things differently to overcome SL issues but everyone should work at this.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #892,751
  • Apr 26, 2014 12:09pm Apr 26, 2014 12:09pm
This is an idea of Indicator Range Dynamics.

Filtered between 2 time frames, with a minimum of 5 minutes between trades allowed for triggering, it looks to build positions as market shows overbought or oversold and close all once the range of the indicators shows that a counter trend is possible.

This is my personal favorite for logic. This one will close a net loss on all trades if this range does not allow for profit.

Is also the EA whose stats that are shown HERE.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #892,752
  • Apr 26, 2014 12:17pm Apr 26, 2014 12:17pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} I will always be of the mind that setting a STATIC or HARD stoploss is completely moronic. .
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #892,753
  • Apr 26, 2014 12:28pm Apr 26, 2014 12:28pm
Quoting Davit
{quote}

Of course, not to be confused with closing a trade at a loss...just setting hard stops, that is the moronic part.

Wanted to clarify...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #892,754
  • Edited 12:58pm Apr 26, 2014 12:38pm | Edited 12:58pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Of course, not to be confused with closing a trade at a loss...just setting hard stops, that is the moronic part. Wanted to clarify...
Agree we are not advocating never take a loss.That would be truly moronic.I liked what you said here

"
You take a long...it goes underwater.
Your trade system tells you to take another long, it too goes underwater.
You set a hard stop loss, it gets triggered....NOW WHAT?
Are you going to sit out the next long signal?
What if this is the one that will move back to prosperity? Or will you now only wait for Shorts and short into a retrace?
This is where a lot of trade logic and new traders fail. They lose several times trading one direction, and by the time they actually hit into the trend, it is already at the end and is reversing, consequently draining the account on the opposite..."



One of my favorite traders Donchian (fellow Armenian) solved this issue by letting runners run after break out the channel and abruptly closed the losers early.Out of 10 small losses 1 or 2 winners compensated the losses and made profit.
System was the heart of Turtle trading which was based on Donchian
(He started trading age 60 and made millions so for older guys there is hope)
Only difficulty now markets are infiltrated by algos and huge trends are no longer there so Donchian system is no longer applicable in today's market.
But I like his ideas.
Some may argue trends are still there.Yes if you are willing to take 30%+DD and hoping that huge retrace is not a reversal.
What I did is instead of taking the small loses I added another position on top.As long as one is fundamentally trading in right direction losses will be minimal.
Example why I am short on EU
Fundamentally I am correct shorting it even if PA is temporary against me.One must relax and allow the position to mature.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #892,755
  • Edited 1:14pm Apr 26, 2014 1:00pm | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Agree we are not advocating never take a loss.That would be truly moronic.I liked what you said here " You take a long...it goes underwater. Your trade system tells you to take another long, it too goes underwater. You set a hard stop loss, it gets triggered....NOW WHAT? Are you going to sit out the next long signal? What if this is the one that will move back to prosperity? Or will you now only wait for Shorts and short into a retrace? This is where a lot of trade logic and new traders fail. They lose several times trading one direction,...
there is a big disadvantage of taking a hard stop and then enter again later. What position size to enter later? the same position size?
If you are stopped out for 50 pips loss, you will have to wait for a 50 pips better price to enter again with the same position size to be same efficient to get you loss back as you cost averaging
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #892,756
  • Apr 26, 2014 1:11pm Apr 26, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} there is a big disadvantage of taking a hard stop and then enter again later. What position size to enter later? the same position size? For example if I was stopped out and I entered later at 10 pips or 20 pips better price with the same position size. I would need the price to move the same 10 pips or 20 pips in my favor to get my previous loss back to break even. Now if I do not set a hard stop, instead I add another position with same size 10 pips or 20 pips later, I would only need a retrace of 5 pips or 10 pips to get break even. At...

Ironically everyone is so drilled about adding to losing position from trading books that this simple logic is lost.
Even pyramiding on key S/R zones is hugely profitable at least to me.My positions are always heaviest on top when I am shorting.
Again people shit their pants soon as they hear martingale.Done right is profitable understanding that taking the loss is necessary when one is obviously wrong.
Knowing how price moves harmonically and combine with fundamentals and coast averaging one can trade successfully without hard SL
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #892,757
  • Apr 26, 2014 1:18pm Apr 26, 2014 1:18pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Ironically everyone is so drilled about adding to losing position from trading books that this simple logic is lost. Even pyramiding on key S/R zones is hugely profitable at least to me.My positions are always heaviest on top when I am shorting. Again people shit their pants soon as they hear martingale.Done right is profitable understanding that taking the loss is necessary when one is obviously wrong. Knowing how price moves harmonically and combine with fundamentals and coast averaging one can trade successfully without hard...
a key part of cost averaging is to remember to reduce position size on retraces to reduce risk. I found very often price retraces to 50% or 61.8% fib levels and then reverse again to go against me again.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #892,758
  • Apr 26, 2014 1:20pm Apr 26, 2014 1:20pm
Example of my recent trades
+14%gain of equity shorting NU
I am also showing loss trades as well
Based on retail positions I had no business of shorting NU
Notice key is allowing max pip gain.I don't just exit at 10pip profit.I am going for max gain
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #892,759
  • Apr 26, 2014 1:23pm Apr 26, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting Davit
Example of my recent trades +14%gain of equity shorting NU I am also showing loss trades as well Based on retail positions I had no business of shorting NU {image}
look like the rate increase is priced in for NU (there is no up price spike at all). So it is going to drop for weeks to come
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #892,760
  • Apr 26, 2014 1:24pm Apr 26, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting Davit
Example why I am short on EU Fundamentally I am correct shorting it even if PA is temporary against me.One must relax and allow the position to mature.
Fundamentally, I am happy that I trade the M1 charts...

Loading positions against the long term trend in consolidation, can actually prove to be disastrous...but even with this being said, we broke away from weeks of down and never tested this area for support.

This is what could be your saving grace on shorts.

Technically, I am short on EURUSD, but for a really long way down and it is only going really matter come the end of summer session and seeing where we are then. In all Honesty, I still believe the buck 5ive range for EURUSD would do it some good...just not sure when we'll get there.

These last couple of weeks have been fantastic from a fast trigger standpoint, as there has been really no immediate danger and no real draws against counter trends. Most of em paid, Grandly!!!

Now, it will be interesting to see where we hit first and maybe make some longer term plans from there.

Fill the market retail gap?
Test and bounce off of support?

I don't know which way we will head first...but I will at least know when we've gotten there...
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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