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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #45,241
  • Apr 24, 2014 10:46pm Apr 24, 2014 10:46pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Looks like the boys in Japan want more down
I think they don't want U/J to inflate too much too fast, so these mo fo's are playing games with everyones head and dragging out this f*ing consolidation bullshit. Everyone knows this thing is going higher, but it's just a question of WHEN?

I hope this BS doesn't last much longer...

In fact, I'm so sick and tired of U/J I think I may stay up all night and finish my currency strength meter, so I can trade other shit than U/J next week. Next week should be better than this one, but still, I've had enough!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #45,242
  • Apr 24, 2014 11:00pm Apr 24, 2014 11:00pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I think they don't want U/J to inflate too much too fast, so these mo fo's are playing games with everyones head and dragging out this f*ing consolidation bullshit. Everyone knows this thing is going higher, but it's just a question of WHEN? I hope this BS doesn't last much longer... In fact, I'm so sick and tired of U/J I think I may stay up all night and finish my currency strength meter, so I can trade other shit than U/J next week. Next week should be better than this one, but still, I've had enough!
Agreed. Although I am perfectly fine with ending the carry trade, but yen pairs use to have nice wide ranges... scalp... swing... position..you could basically do it all.

Not it's "large" moves on obscure events and than several hours of nothing.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #45,243
  • Apr 25, 2014 12:22am Apr 25, 2014 12:22am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I think they don't want U/J to inflate too much too fast, so these mo fo's are playing games with everyones head and dragging out this f*ing consolidation bullshit. Everyone knows this thing is going higher, but it's just a question of WHEN? I hope this BS doesn't last much longer... In fact, I'm so sick and tired of U/J I think I may stay up all night and finish my currency strength meter, so I can trade other shit than U/J next week. Next week should be better than this one, but still, I've had enough!
Don't worry the NFP is just next week. This pair can't stay flat much longer. If the NFP number is good, this pair is going up to Mount Everest.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #45,244
  • Apr 25, 2014 1:15am Apr 25, 2014 1:15am
Quoting Pip Anon
Agreed. Although I am perfectly fine with ending the carry trade, but yen pairs use to have nice wide ranges... scalp... swing... position..you could basically do it all. Not it's "large" moves on obscure events and than several hours of nothing.
Yeah. You took the words right out of my mouth. I've been trading yen pairs ever since GBP/JPY broke out at 140, and it used to be fun. You could trade any which way, like you said. But things have died down lately and it'd be nice if they pick up next week like Forexia has mentioned due to NFP.

I think there's a good possibility of that, because I see 4H support on the charts right now, and that'll probably turn into Daily support as of next week. But we'll see... Who knows how long this might drag on for.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #45,245
  • Apr 25, 2014 1:26am Apr 25, 2014 1:26am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Yeah. You took the words right out of my mouth. I've been trading yen pairs ever since GBP/JPY broke out at 140, and it used to be fun. You could trade any which way, like you said. But things have died down lately and it'd be nice if they pick up next week like Forexia has mentioned due to NFP. I think there's a good possibility of that, because I see 4H support on the charts right now, and that'll probably turn into Daily support as of next week. But we'll see... Who knows how long this might drag on for.
The dollar is just depressing. Manic for a bit then a deep depression. Pass the Prozac

The 4H has looked like an upturn is possible, but the dollar not doing anything has hampered it greatly. Just a modest move in yen sways it all over, not to mention the random, useless .3% jumps in Yen on what Putin may or may not say. Funny thing is nobody cared when Russia was doing the same shit four weeks ago, but now it "matters"
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #45,246
  • Apr 25, 2014 3:52am Apr 25, 2014 3:52am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} The dollar is just depressing. Manic for a bit then a deep depression. Pass the Prozac The 4H has looked like an upturn is possible, but the dollar not doing anything has hampered it greatly. Just a modest move in yen sways it all over, not to mention the random, useless .3% jumps in Yen on what Putin may or may not say. Funny thing is nobody cared when Russia was doing the same shit four weeks ago, but now it "matters"

UJ will do what is programmed to do, no matter Putin or whoever says/does what. Support at 102.20 holds for now and looking at W&M chart it looks like "there's the calm before the storm" .
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #45,247
  • Apr 25, 2014 4:06am Apr 25, 2014 4:06am
Quoting bikov
{quote} UJ will do what is programmed to do, no matter Putin or whoever says/does what. Support at 102.20 holds for now and looking at W&M chart it looks like "there's the calm before the storm" .
Let's face it, price action is derived from outside sources. You can say UJ will do what it's programmed to do is like saying the BoJ had nothing to do from moving from low-90s to low-100s.

Because when these events aren't here the UJ is programmed for a 10 pip range for 9 hours.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #45,248
  • Apr 25, 2014 4:19am Apr 25, 2014 4:19am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Let's face it, price action is derived from outside sources. You can say UJ will do what it's programmed to do is like saying the BoJ had nothing to do from moving from low-90s to low-100s. Because when these events aren't here the UJ is programmed for a 10 pip range for 9 hours.
But they had little to do with moving from 80 to about 95.
  • #45,249
  • Apr 25, 2014 4:23am Apr 25, 2014 4:23am
Quoting bikov
{quote} UJ will do what is programmed to do, no matter Putin or whoever says/does what. Support at 102.20 holds for now and looking at W&M chart it looks like "there's the calm before the storm" .
102.2 broken twice in 24 hours. any input on that?
  • #45,250
  • Apr 25, 2014 4:36am Apr 25, 2014 4:36am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} But they had little to do with moving from 80 to about 95.
And some other event did. I am a technical trader, but It gets old when traders try to lay out this case like there are little magical gnomes behind the scenes pulling the price up and down.

Events create emotions in humans. Humans react on these emotions whether rationally or irrationally. The yen, whether a trader likes it or not, is considered a safe haven. When geo-political tension arises, traders buy yen because it is ingrained into their minds. When the Putin news yesterday morning, do you think institutions were like "no, no wait it hasn't hit my support levels yet!"

Same thing with crude. It is these events at determine the overall subjectivity of whether something is worth buying or selling.
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #45,251
  • Apr 25, 2014 4:42am Apr 25, 2014 4:42am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Let's face it, price action is derived from outside sources. You can say UJ will do what it's programmed to do is like saying the BoJ had nothing to do from moving from low-90s to low-100s. Because when these events aren't here the UJ is programmed for a 10 pip range for 9 hours.

No, UJ is programmed in bigger% by BoJ, that's what I tried to say. Geopolitical concerns will only postpone the achieving of the target, whatever it is.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #45,252
  • Apr 25, 2014 4:45am Apr 25, 2014 4:45am
Quoting bikov
{quote} No, UJ is programmed in bigger% by BoJ, that's what I tried to say. Geopolitical concerns will only postpone the achieving of the target, whatever it is.
Yes, all I'm getting at is events drive price action.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #45,253
  • Apr 25, 2014 4:51am Apr 25, 2014 4:51am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} 102.2 broken twice in 24 hours. any input on that?

zone around 102.20 still holds, you cannot expect one digit to be a whole support. it was broken but than came back to 102.40's. and if it breaks, well there's opposite command of "buy"
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #45,254
  • Apr 25, 2014 4:56am Apr 25, 2014 4:56am
102.15/20 - really very important zone for someone, that's what I'm seeing now at the chart
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #45,255
  • Apr 25, 2014 5:01am Apr 25, 2014 5:01am
Quoting bikov
{quote} No, UJ is programmed in bigger% by BoJ, that's what I tried to say. Geopolitical concerns will only postpone the achieving of the target, whatever it is.
Do you have inside information from BOJ? they said to you UJ must go 120 or higher?
Because just they sent me an SMS and said to me
don't worry about your shorts (still hold from 104,7)
we are ok if price go below 100
still ok above 95
then we will start intervention
  • #45,256
  • Apr 25, 2014 5:07am Apr 25, 2014 5:07am
Quoting artocarpus
{quote} Do you have inside information from BOJ? they said to you UJ must go 120 or higher? Because just they sent me an SMS and said to me don't worry about your shorts (still hold from 104,7) we are ok if price do below 100 still ok above 95 then we will start intervention

you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that BoJ wants depreciated Yen. every info here is public, no need for sarcasm here. nobody (not you and me) knows how and when they'll manage it and what's their desirable target. did I ever said a specific level/target with a 100% assurance?
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #45,257
  • Apr 25, 2014 5:23am Apr 25, 2014 5:23am
Quoting bikov
{quote} you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that BoJ wants depreciated Yen. every info here is public, no need for sarcasm here. nobody (not you and me) knows how and when they'll manage it and what's their desirable target. did I ever said a specific level/target with a 100% assurance?
BoJ depreciated Yen enough,( 25% or more the last 1 and a half year) everything has an end
  • #45,258
  • Apr 25, 2014 5:32am Apr 25, 2014 5:32am
Quoting artocarpus
{quote} BoJ depreciated Yen enough,( 25% or more the last 1 and a half year) everything has an end

Maybe you're right, somewhere I read (latter I'll find the link) that USA said "enough already" to BoJ about printing. From the other side there's the intention for Japan's state pension fund to move overseas (this link latter again, got to go now). So, we'll see which will win. You've read the same stuff or got an SMS from BoJ ?
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #45,259
  • Edited 5:50am Apr 25, 2014 5:36am | Edited 5:50am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} And some other event did. I am a technical trader, but It gets old when traders try to lay out this case like there are little magical gnomes behind the scenes pulling the price up and down. Events create emotions in humans. Humans react on these emotions whether rationally or irrationally. The yen, whether a trader likes it or not, is considered a safe haven. When geo-political tension arises, traders buy yen because it is ingrained into their minds. When the Putin news yesterday morning, do you think institutions were like "no, no wait...
During the Christmas and New Year low liquidity break two years ago George Soros et al took advantage and sold the Yen. They stopped at about 95 ~97.

And now, a comment:


In the old days people used to populate this particular forum awaiting that elusive intervention. Then the interventions stopped. Since then, they have awaited the ever expected easing, or whatever, like a bunch of cargo cultists looking for something magical to fall from the sky. For the last (nearly) four months they have waited ... and waited. Yet in all this time USDJPY has dropped.

In earlier years there were a select few traders here who actively traded this pair - and if interventions came along, they got lucky. From what I can ascertain, there are still a select few folks here who simply trade. Two to three years on, for others the logic offered up has changed, yet the expectations remain. They talk about Mr Putin, or whatever turns them on, but USDJPY still falls.

Maybe the BOJ will save them!
  • #45,260
  • Apr 25, 2014 6:09am Apr 25, 2014 6:09am
will it pass Pivot S1?
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