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Sonic R. System

  • #69,401
  • Apr 22, 2014 11:16am Apr 22, 2014 11:16am
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} TAH, Yep, point taken. Do you agree regarding retrace to fib levels? Just my take 50% 4hr chart, possibly building longs below whole number. IMO, I find that usually if price breaks 61.8% fibs, signal for possible trend reversal but if not just a retrace. We will see what happens when LC and NY has control!
EURUSD:

Price has not yet reached, let alone broken the 62% retrace level. Should it do so, it means nothing but that it has happened, because we cannot know how price will move next. It might go up or down from there. If you are saying that you usually find it goes on down from there, signalling a trend reversal, it would not be a trend reversal. It would be a continuation of the down trend.

My assessment is that the moves up now are only instigated by the MMs to suck in longs for shorting liquidity, and big banks might be periodically placing new short orders above whatever the current prices are, motivating the MMs to instigate these drives up of the price, in order to get the new short orders filled.
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  • #69,402
  • Apr 22, 2014 11:19am Apr 22, 2014 11:19am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EURUSD: Price has not yet reached, let alone broken the 62% retrace level. Should it do so, it means nothing but that it has happened, because we cannot know how price will move next. It might go up or down from there. If you are saying that you usually find it goes on down from there, signalling a trend reversal, it would not be a trend reversal. It would be a continuation of the down trend. {image}
TAH,

Yes, I stand corrected. Trend continuation, my bad
Keep It Simple
  • #69,403
  • Edited 11:50am Apr 22, 2014 11:34am | Edited 11:50am
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} TAH, Yes, I stand corrected. Trend continuation, my bad
I do not see what you say wrong, because, for me, the trend is clearly seen in the chart. And fibonacci levels can play an important role in this I consider a retracement.
It seems very probable building longs on 50% - 62% Fibonacci retracement. Why not?
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Check your emotions. How are you?
  • #69,404
  • Apr 22, 2014 11:54am Apr 22, 2014 11:54am
Quoting Repsaj
{quote} I do not see what you say wrong, because, for me, the trend is clearly seen in the chart. And fibonacci levels can play an important role in this I consider a retracement. {image}

Repsaj,

Yes that's correct as I posted and I scalp using lower t.f's than most. So that works for me, but, as you know, each t/f will show different trends and I use fibs, round numbers and supply/demand areas for entries and exits for quick trades, different than most. So each trader may see a different trend and with that in mind, I respect each opinion that works for them and their trading style. IMO, nobody is right or wrong if they make pips. I make most trades from 5m or 15m looking for good entries on the 1m.

Thanks for the input
Keep It Simple
  • #69,405
  • Edited 12:44pm Apr 22, 2014 11:55am | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting Repsaj
{quote} I do not see what you say wrong, because, for me, the trend is clearly seen in the chart. And fibonacci levels can play an important role in this I consider a retracement. {image}
EURUSD:

Repsaj,

Just my opinion, but the DAY chart is far too lagging current events the way you are using it. What I see as the more "telling" way to use the higher TF charts is shown by the attached example. Analyzing the package of individual candles and groups of candles can reveal far more accurately what the market is doing than by using trend lines and Fibonacci studies to try and predict what the market will do.
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In any case, no PVSRA shows better what the MMs are actually currently doing than a M1 PVSRA. Do that, and then fit it into the larger picture, imho. If you read the material on PVSRA as you should have, then you should know that a premise of PVSRA is that the MMs prefer to build short above key S&R. And no S&R is more key than a whole number! If you only assess using the large TF charts using TLs, etc. the way you are doing, and if you do not do a proper PVSRA, then you will not get early warning that the winds are starting to blow differently. This simple M1 PVSRA says the MMs are bears that are accumulating short orders. And the results of this PVSRA fits what the DAY chart shows has been actually happening now for some time.
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And, look at the M15! It show a solid bear waveform of lower HLs. It also shows where solid support was. It also shows this support failed, was retested with an upside move which failed. Not only did this upside move fail, but the MMs quickly moved the price back down thru the whole number below this support area, locking out longs! You cannot deny the high selling volume (closing longs/opening shorts) at the top of the retest move. Nor can you cannot deny the higher pure sell-off volume that followed!
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What I see is overwhelming evidence that the market/Smart Money/MMs......whatever name you wish, is a BEAR and has been for some time now, regardless of all the bullshit being broadcast by "talking heads" while these deceivers use the long orders placed by others to build their own short positions. I could be wrong about this,....have been before. Time will tell.

-tah
  • #69,406
  • Apr 22, 2014 12:31pm Apr 22, 2014 12:31pm
EU, possible short entry forming
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Keep It Simple
  • #69,407
  • Apr 22, 2014 12:43pm Apr 22, 2014 12:43pm
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} Repsaj, Yes that's correct as I posted and I scalp using lower t.f's than most. So that works for me, but, as you know, each t/f will show different trends and I use fibs, round numbers and supply/demand areas for entries and exits for quick trades, different than most. So each trader may see a different trend and with that in mind, I respect each opinion that works for them and their trading style. IMO, nobody is right or wrong if they make pips. I make most trades from 5m or 15m looking for good entries on the 1m. Thanks for the input...
I know your style of trading because I myself have practiced for several years. It looks good and you can make money, if you know how to do it (everyone does not do it for scalping).
Now I'm focused on trying to make longer trades in time and therefore lend less attention to scalping. My main problem is that I find it hard to let my profits run.
If I do not get this new goal, I have to go back to scalping and stress.
So wait, do not go!
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Check your emotions. How are you?
  • #69,408
  • Apr 22, 2014 12:56pm Apr 22, 2014 12:56pm
Its really confusing when we see some of the best guys using PVRSA with opposite views of the same pair. I´ve noticed that it´s not the first time we can see Loiel take one direction and Tah take another direction. EU is just an example.

Strange is, they both can be right! As long you make a smart Money Management.

Trade safe!
Dificult things take longer, Imposible ones just take a bit more
  • #69,409
  • Apr 22, 2014 12:57pm Apr 22, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting Repsaj
{quote} I know your style of trading because I myself have practiced for several years. It looks good and you can make money, if you know how to do it (everyone does not do it for scalping). Now I'm focused on trying to make longer trades in time and therefore lend less attention to scalping. My main problem is that I find it hard to let my profits run. If I do not get this new goal, I have to go back to scalping and stress. So wait, do not go!
Repsaj,

Some find scalping stressful, yes indeed it can be, but that's my style and I do not advocate it for new traders. TAH leads the way learning PVSRA. IMO, Sonic classic trades will allow most traders to stay "in the game" and give more longevity understand MM's. I have learned a lot from him and still am a student of PVSRA. I just tend to fall back on my style. It's the old dog new tricks thingy..
Keep It Simple
  • #69,410
  • Apr 22, 2014 1:32pm Apr 22, 2014 1:32pm
EU, here is an example of two possible entries where you could be caught the wrong way on the 5m without higher t/f confirmation if you entered on classics or scouts only. Which I could be short term.
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Keep It Simple
  • #69,411
  • Apr 22, 2014 1:38pm Apr 22, 2014 1:38pm
GBPJPY
Beware the beast! It is capable of raise more than 200 pips.
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Check your emotions. How are you?
  • #69,412
  • Apr 22, 2014 1:44pm Apr 22, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting cigarguy
EU, here is an example of two possible entries where you could be caught the wrong way on the 5m without higher t/f confirmation if you entered on classics or scouts only. Which I could be short term. {image}
I'll wait until tomorrow for this pair. Now, surely, I will look longs trades.
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Check your emotions. How are you?
  • #69,413
  • Edited 2:39pm Apr 22, 2014 2:19pm | Edited 2:39pm
Quoting Repsaj
{quote} I know your style of trading because I myself have practiced for several years. It looks good and you can make money, if you know how to do it (everyone does not do it for scalping). Now I'm focused on trying to make longer trades in time and therefore lend less attention to scalping. My main problem is that I find it hard to let my profits run. If I do not get this new goal, I have to go back to scalping and stress. So wait, do not go! {image}
Quoting Repsaj
{quote} I'll wait until tomorrow for this pair. Now, surely, I will look longs trades. {image}
PVSRA is an Art Form

It takes time, but all who stay with it eventually "get it". Sometimes folks get a fixation on one direction or the other, and just "won't " see evidence that contradicts their bias.

The price can now go back up some more. Surely, it will, what with more EUR and USD releases coming tomorrow; a perfect environment for the "Whippin' Whacking" MMs to do their thing, and maybe motivated to do so by even more bank short orders yet again placed higher. Such could present a long trade opportunity, but one that would best be "....watched like a hawk."

Just trying to help,
-tah
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  • #69,414
  • Apr 22, 2014 7:38pm Apr 22, 2014 7:38pm
Quoting Bernhard
{quote} more details please.... ???
The most you get from him is some useless mtv posts
i wonder why people still post and say he is good?
  • #69,415
  • Edited 8:30pm Apr 22, 2014 8:12pm | Edited 8:30pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} Wednesday will be THE day for GBP.. Sonic
Quoting Bernhard
{quote} more details please.... ???
Quoting trexy123
{quote} The most you get from him is some useless mtv posts i wonder why people still post and say he is good?
Trexy123,

Every well read Sonicer here with average intelligence or above recognizes that your posts are 99.99% questions and even the rest are of dubious contributory nature to this thread. You have been around far too long to still be asking questions or to be criticizing the contributions of others.

All anyone (of average intelligence or above) has to do, to clearly understand Master Sonicdeejay's meaning, is to view their SonicR FFCal Panel indicator displayed on any Sonic R. System GBP chart.

Your frustration is understandable, you being a person that apparently cannot think for themselves and is therefore in constant need for others to give them clear signals. However, as frustrated as you are, you do not have the right to criticize other Sonicers, based on your own lack of contribution to this thread.

Please, do not continue with this attitude if you wish to continue to be allowed posting privileges here.

-tah
  • #69,416
  • Edited 9:11pm Apr 22, 2014 8:20pm | Edited 9:11pm
AUD Release Coming Up!

The MMs have recently twice manipulated price above the 3/4 Level, presumably to collect short orders. Let's see what happens subsequent to the release. A Whip n' Whack to the upper whole number?
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Nope! No "whip n' whack", just plain Whack! PVSRA is wonderful!
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This is a strong bear move, too, breaking the average day range on notable volume......
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  • #69,417
  • Apr 22, 2014 9:45pm Apr 22, 2014 9:45pm
GBPJPY: A "Whippin' Whackin" Wednesday?

The half number is the key now.

Previously PA came up to it, ranged, fell back a bit (MMs accumulating longs to make profit on their planned whip up), whipped up through it (MMs suckering longs), fell back down through it (MMs closing their longs at profit), and finally came back up through it where it has been ranging ever since (MMs now accumulating shorts).

It is a premise of PVSRA that MMs prefer to build their shorts above key S&R, and the half numbers are very much so. Most recently we see some whips up thru the 3/4 Level with notable volume, an indication the MMs are bears that are accumulating shorts. These are the Asian session MMs, and maybe giving an early sign of what is to come.

Three......three......high impact releases are coming! The deceiving & thieving London session and USA MMs might put on their infamous "Whippin' Whackin'" show today and take price even higher. We cannot know how price will move next, but the signs are that the MMs are bears. If they are, then no matter how high the "Big Boy" MMs manipulate the price, they will be driving it down for profits eventually.

This upcoming London session will be a significant time for the GBP due to the three releases, so what is true of GJ, should also be true of GU.

-tah
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  • #69,418
  • Apr 22, 2014 10:45pm Apr 22, 2014 10:45pm
Quoting traderathome
AUD Release Coming Up! The MMs have recently twice manipulated price above the 3/4 Level, presumably to collect short orders. Let's see what happens subsequent to the release. A Whip n' Whack to the upper whole number?{image} Nope! No "whip n' whack", just plain Whack! PVSRA is wonderful!{image} This is a strong bear move, too, breaking the average day range on notable volume......{image}
HULK SMASH

and the aud fell reeling down to 0.92826....
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  • #69,419
  • Apr 22, 2014 11:52pm Apr 22, 2014 11:52pm
Quoting FXRobert
{quote} H1 nice pin top channel {image}
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  • #69,420
  • Edited Apr 23, 2014 12:28am Apr 22, 2014 11:59pm | Edited Apr 23, 2014 12:28am
NZDUSD Short Trade Opened:

Entered shorts #1-2. Short #1 was entered yesterday. I was so busy posting on EU I forgot to post this entry. I have just added when price broke down thru local support. PVSRA shows yesterday and today high volume at highs and coming down off the highs - both times above the whole number - indicating the MMs are bears accumulating short orders.
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