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EURUSD

  • #891,501
  • Apr 21, 2014 12:38pm Apr 21, 2014 12:38pm
this joint is hilarious... pair dropped 13 pips and it's an all out panic or celebration.. depending.
  • #891,502
  • Apr 21, 2014 12:40pm Apr 21, 2014 12:40pm
i hear that.. the same as it popped on 367x. short guys there, are magically long bias now. that is funny..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #891,503
  • Apr 21, 2014 12:43pm Apr 21, 2014 12:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i may be wrong. i would think the larger market sets the pace of the smaller ones.
that seems logical. Either way, I look to the EG for clues on movement, and imho the EG recent PA was in this case a leading indicator of EU direction, at least short term in these thin markets. I would have to say that this does not happen infrequently, and can be more pronounced towards the end of the month and recently surrounding M&A activity in London for example.
  • #891,504
  • Apr 21, 2014 12:45pm Apr 21, 2014 12:45pm
Quoting usernamehere
{quote} that seems logical. Either way, I look to the EG for clues on movement, and imho the EG recent PA was in this case a leading indicator of EU direction, at least short term in these thin markets. I would have to say that this does not happen infrequently, and can be more pronounced towards the end of the month and recently surrounding M&A activity in London for example.
i may be wrong. the eu seems a better short then the gu. or if one is dollar bearish, the gu seems the better long then the eu. according to the eg.
and i still wouldnt L the gu till 6738 or lower in the st. (if we drop now w/o a hh 6732 min)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #891,505
  • Apr 21, 2014 12:50pm Apr 21, 2014 12:50pm
Actual EURUSD 1 pip move is equal to
2 pip move regarding to its last 10 years weighted average.
6 pip move regarding to its last 10 years Max Peak.

for last 10 years actual EURUSD volatility at its lowest.
My Best Trade is Next Trade!
  • #891,506
  • Apr 21, 2014 12:51pm Apr 21, 2014 12:51pm
Buy @ 3790 sl 3780 tp 3820
  • #891,507
  • Apr 21, 2014 12:54pm Apr 21, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting MAM.Trader
Actual EURUSD 1 pip move is equal to 2 pip move regarding to its last 10 years weighted average. 6 pip move regarding to its last 10 years Max Peak. for last 10 years actual EURUSD volatility at its lowest.
could you elaborate a bit what method you've used to get those numbers, please?
big numbers are our friends...
  • #891,508
  • Apr 21, 2014 12:58pm Apr 21, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i may be wrong. the eu seems a better short then the gu. or if one is dollar bearish, the gu seems the better long then the eu. according to the eg. and i still wouldnt L the gu till 6738 or lower in the st.

Yes, a case can be made for that if you see EG aiming for sub 0.8150, EU becoming subtly anxious over ECB easing, and GU sentiment still positive, yes GU long preferred. For my trading plan, GU has to pull back a bit for me to enter, and Im not sure we are going to see that. I know you are very accurate with your numbers. I look to an area... I would be interested in PA around 1.6752 to 1.6730. If it dipped any lower, the stops sub .6720 are vulnerable and would wait on further 1hr PA.
  • #891,509
  • Apr 21, 2014 1:00pm Apr 21, 2014 1:00pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I'm curious, how do you calculate your TG ? As you know the 3rd target but not the first one ?
That's because TG3 it's always a 480min or Daily target ... while TG1 and TG2 are 60Min and 240Min targets
  • #891,510
  • Apr 21, 2014 1:12pm Apr 21, 2014 1:12pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd@h1.png Size: 50 KB
  • #891,511
  • Apr 21, 2014 1:13pm Apr 21, 2014 1:13pm
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} That's because TG3 it's always a 480min or Daily target ... while TG1 and TG2 are 60Min and 240Min targets
First of all, there is nothing called TG - i have never heard this term ever used. It is TP, standing for 'Take Profit'. (So, please enlighten the court with TG and what it stands for! )
Second, you were on the selling side few days ago - now you are back with totally different view& direction, just because your order was not filled by 8/9 pips! It makes me wonder, if you order was actually filled- you were going to be on the buying side?!
Thrid, where the hell you getting this numbers from?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #891,512
  • Apr 21, 2014 2:11pm Apr 21, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} First of all, there is nothing called TG - i have never heard this term ever used. It is TP, standing for 'Take Profit'. (So, please enlighten the court with TG and what it stands for! ) Second, you were on the selling side few days ago - now you are back with totally different view& direction, just because your order was not filled by 8/9 pips! It makes me wonder, if you order was actually filled- you were going to be on the buying side?! Thrid, where the hell you getting this numbers from?!
TG = Target

TG != TP ... because depending on how we reach a TG I decide to TP or not

Me on the selling side some days ago ?? ... sure you have not read my recen posts.

And about missing the op by 9 pips ... I calc my entries ... if they are not filled, I will not do a wild-jump-in, that sell was planned as a 24-48h stading sell ... no more, so now that entry missed, I lookup, zoomout the graph, calc the entry zone for new ops ... and they are longs on the zone I mentioned, that's all, and that ones will be swing trades.

If I miss an op, no matter if by 8 pips or by 80 pips ... op missed, ops have their entry point and entry time, the op I call this morning whas an op that must be filled in 24-48h ... but looking at how we moved down today at NY open ..., that op got invalidated, so go for the next ... this game it's like that.
  • #891,513
  • Apr 21, 2014 2:37pm Apr 21, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} First of all, there is nothing called TG - i have never heard this term ever used. It is TP, standing for 'Take Profit'. (So, please enlighten the court with TG and what it stands for! ) Second, you were on the selling side few days ago - now you are back with totally different view& direction, just because your order was not filled by 8/9 pips! It makes me wonder, if you order was actually filled- you were going to be on the buying side?! Thrid, where the hell you getting this numbers from?!
As we all know markets do not move in straight lines. Retracements can be significant. I trade retracements as well as the main impulse to make the most of the swings of the market. What's wrong with changing your stance to reflect the market?
It'll be alright on the night
  • #891,514
  • Apr 21, 2014 2:58pm Apr 21, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting Gaviscon3
{quote} What's wrong with changing your stance to reflect the market?

There is nothing wrong, but i hardly suspect someone's ability to adapt his position as market moves ... i have not heard of someone lived long, to tell the story!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #891,515
  • Apr 21, 2014 3:17pm Apr 21, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting pedro319
EURUSD Update Technical: The tech picture remains pretty much the same, at least on the higher timeframes, on the smaller tf's there are few patterns inside other patterns posted here last week all indicating downside. Now the question is how to trade it if you are not in yet. Ideally we could have a retracement from current levels to the weekly pivot or slightly above to the 1.3826 area and try to short it from there, you can combine with daily pivots as well and fib levels on hourly chart! These below charts show what could be expected next week....
Next levels I am watching like a hawk for reversal signs:
13750- This one could start second wing of a Bfly sell on daily chart, its located slightly below weekly support 1 (13774), this level is in between 61.8 and 78.6 required for butterfly.
13660- Monthly pivot support 1 and S2 1.3550 close to my final target for this trade.
If you want to look at what I am talking about check out my charts.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #891,516
  • Apr 21, 2014 3:39pm Apr 21, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting deeZG
{quote} could you elaborate a bit what method you've used to get those numbers, please?
I don't know whether he used hist/realized vol or implied vol, but the standard way to risk-adjust your trades is to consider a forward looking implied volatility, typical swing trades might use 1 month IV (chart)

We can see that its at 5.8, much below the peak of 29 (5.8/29 = 1/5 = 1 pip today = 5 pips in 2008)

Compared to 2010/2011 mean of 12.31, todays 5.8 equates to approximately 1/2 (0.47) so a pip today = 2 pips back then.

Typically traders will adjust according and have a notional position twice the size today that they would have had in 2010/11
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR 1 month vol.png Size: 159 KB
  • #891,517
  • Apr 21, 2014 3:49pm Apr 21, 2014 3:49pm
EurUsd Daily and H4
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.04.21. EurUsd Daily - ABCD.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.04.21. EurUsd H4.png Size: 41 KB
f(z)=z2+c
  • #891,518
  • Apr 21, 2014 3:50pm Apr 21, 2014 3:50pm
May I ask Jeremy where do you get these graphs, please
  • #891,519
  • Apr 21, 2014 3:50pm Apr 21, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting ForexOracle
Finally those fokkers decided to move the market a little. In the good old days a 43 pip day would be like nothing but in the actual scenario I take it!!
Just move to another pair if you don't like it.
  • #891,520
  • Apr 21, 2014 3:51pm Apr 21, 2014 3:51pm
Quoting Karpa
May I ask Jeremy where do you get these graphs, please
Thomson Reuters Eikon
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