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Follow the BIG Candle

  • #261
  • Apr 3, 2014 3:39pm Apr 3, 2014 3:39pm
I started testing this EA on my VPS from today on.
Hope to contribute from to perfection of this EA.

Peace,
Auset
  • #262
  • Apr 3, 2014 4:37pm Apr 3, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting ausetfx
I started testing this EA on my VPS from today on. Hope to contribute from to perfection of this EA. Peace, Auset
Great. Tomorrow is the NFP day, lets see what happens.
No guts, no glory
  • #263
  • Apr 5, 2014 5:55am Apr 5, 2014 5:55am
So what happened with EUR/USD on Thursday:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm30_6.png Size: 36 KB


[1] According to settings a Big Candle appeared, and a Long Trade Taken on Current Candle, and since Candle Size was relatively small, and hence SL is small, a Large position was opened 0.6.

If you look at the previous candles they are Very Small, which affected the ATR calculation. The Candle Size was less than 35 Pips, and this should not be considered as BIG candle.

This is one of the modifications that need to be done on coming version, where I suggest using a Fixed Size for a BIG Candle looking at at least one year data (for M30 time frame). So for EUR/USD M30 it would be something like 60 Pips.

However this trade initially went into loss on the second candle, and then came ECB Press Conference candle and the trade into profit ($160), but didn't reach partial Take Profit. On the same candle (which is a Big Candle), and since we enabled "Close on Opposite Signal" and once the candle became "Red", the trade was closed at loss. [1C].

[2] a Short Trade was open, and we are still in the Big Candle, and since we enabled "Close on Opposite Signal" and once the candle became "Green", the trade was closed at loss. [2C].

[3] a Long trade was open (on the same ECB Conference candle), and it was closed later as Opposite Signal Appeared. However no new short trade was open because the candle does not satisfy the new calculated size of the Big Candle.

This was really bad, and it could be worse, I mean if the "ECB Press Conference candle", or a BIG candle in general went into Green and Red many times, EA will open and close at loss. However this scenario can be easily avoided by not allowing the EA to open multiple trades on the same candle. This is a know situation (see post # 197) and a fix is planned for the next version.
No guts, no glory
  • #264
  • Apr 8, 2014 10:36am Apr 8, 2014 10:36am
Hi,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=320940

Can you tell me if your theory is the same as mine?
  • #265
  • Apr 8, 2014 12:41pm Apr 8, 2014 12:41pm
Quoting doshur
Hi, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=320940 Can you tell me if your theory is the same as mine?

I checked your link, but Nothing much there to compare !.
What happened, did you gave up or what?

Anyway, I had to check your code to know "your theory". It looks good to me. But different.

Thanks for stopping by,
No guts, no glory
  • #266
  • Edited 7:24am Apr 12, 2014 6:05am | Edited 7:24am
Before moving to Big Candle 5, here is a fix of known issues on Big Candle 4, along with a test on GBP/USD 2014 using same settings linked to Trade Explorer. Impressive Results.

The new release includes the following fixes:

  1. No multiple trades on Same Candle.
  2. Partial Take Profit Fixed on MicroLots(0.01).

    1. Technical Details : This was done using MODE_LOTSTEP which allows micro on closing, however Minimum Lot to Open a Trade is still using MODE_MINLOT which is a MiniLot(0.1)
    2. Test was run on FXDD Real Account with Fixed Spread and it allows micro lot for trade opening.

  3. ​​​EA will keep try performing each operation (open, close, move stop ... etc) until done.

​EDIT: reloaded EA after adding Error_Handling

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BC4_GU_M30_2014.PNG Size: 47 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Big_Candle_04.ex4   27 KB | 834 downloads
No guts, no glory
  • #267
  • Apr 12, 2014 6:22am Apr 12, 2014 6:22am
Here are the test results for the 8 pairs linked to TE for the period 1/1/2014 to 12/4/2014 using M30 and same settings for all pairs as linked to TE:
PAIR $ PROFIT/LOSS
====== ========
GBP/USD +3536
EUR/USD -1222
AUD/USD +2177
NZD/USD +1852
USD/JPY +955
USD/CAD +1101
EUR/JPY -435
GBP/JPY -1683
============
TOTAL +6281

Remember that settings were initially optimized for GBP/USD and same settings applied to all pairs.
Ideally each pair should have its own settings.
No guts, no glory
  • #268
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:26am Apr 13, 2014 4:26am
Side Talk,

You think that you have a successful trading strategy, but trading it manually involves fear and greed, so you fail.

I have read books and articles on Trader's Discipline as key to success in trading. But couldn't find a way to guarantee discipline better than mechanical trading through an EA.

Many would say that mechanical trading systems can NOT be profitable.

Is this business only for people with deep pockets? so they sell at yearly high, and buy at yearly low with no stop loss, and keep position open until they get their profit targets.

I am confused.
No guts, no glory
  • #269
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:34am Apr 13, 2014 4:34am
Side Talk:

I studded hundreds of trading strategies. I even made-up many on my own, and they looked very profitable at first glance. So, I put them in an EA, and they failed on the long run. Well, I was very disciplined but yet failed.
No guts, no glory
  • #270
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:37am Apr 13, 2014 4:37am
Hi Abokwaik,

I think your system is very good and it can be and is profitable. It should be revised every three months or so (settings), but in general it is very good. Keep up the good work.

lp

Dragan
fxkeys
  • #271
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:39am Apr 13, 2014 4:39am
Side Talk:

The only strategy that worked in all market conditions and on the long run and brought huge profits, required a huge starting balance ($100,000)-not the Big Candle BTW.

I hope the Big Candle will show success on the long run, but I'm not very optimistic.

Back to work.
No guts, no glory
  • #272
  • Apr 13, 2014 4:41am Apr 13, 2014 4:41am
Quoting dragan9
Hi Abokwaik, I think your system is very good and it can be and is profitable. It should be revised every three months or so (settings), but in general it is very good. Keep up the good work. lp Dragan

Thanks for the encouragement. I might loose a trade but never lose HOPE.
No guts, no glory
  • #273
  • Apr 13, 2014 6:56am Apr 13, 2014 6:56am
Some notes on the EA trades :

Won Trades:

As we are working on M30 time frame, most of the profitable trades were not able to catch a Big Trend, and in most of them the Final Take Profit was less than the Partial Take Profit because of hitting the Trailing Stop too soon, or the micro-trend reversal.

Look at the late EUR/USD trade :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm30_71.png Size: 39 KB


So how to work around such cases ?

What if we don't trail the stop loss, and keep it at break-even, or even at the original place, AND,
Take multiple profit targets as long as the micro-trend goes:

For example in the above trade, the partial take profit 50% was taken at 20 pips (as calculated from the settings, 10xATR multiples), so instead of trailing the stop at 10xATR we keep it as is, or move it to break even, and take
profit in, lets say 5 steps, 20% for each additional 20 pips in our direction.

This will keep us safe from pull-backs in the emerging micro-trend, isn't it.
No guts, no glory
  • #274
  • Apr 13, 2014 7:12am Apr 13, 2014 7:12am
Some notes on the EA trades :

Won Trades:

Another note about Won Trades. Over 90% of won trades reached Partial Take Profit/Break Even before beating the Big Candle.

So what if we minimize the stop loss (currently 20xATR), to be just few pips under/above the Big Candle. This will minimize the loss on almost all lost trades.
No guts, no glory
  • #275
  • Apr 14, 2014 12:23am Apr 14, 2014 12:23am
Quoting abokwaik
Some notes on the EA trades : Won Trades: As we are working on M30 time frame, most of the profitable trades were not able to catch a Big Trend, and in most of them the Final Take Profit was less than the Partial Take Profit because of hitting the Trailing Stop too soon, or the micro-trend reversal. Look at the late EUR/USD trade : {image} So how to work around such cases ? What if we don't trail the stop loss, and keep it at break-even, or even at the original place, AND, Take multiple profit targets as long as the micro-trend goes: For example...
Hi, the trade you're mentioning is great, everyone would be happy to take its profits and if you look forward there is another big candle and buying oportunity which would also be in profit..
I think that only thing that is missing is that you incorporate tp, sl, 1st tp, trailing and be in pips to the EA in addition to the atr values, so that you can trade either way, or that you can combine both.

lp

Dragan
fxkeys
  • #276
  • Apr 14, 2014 4:30am Apr 14, 2014 4:30am
Quoting dragan9
{quote} Hi, the trade you're mentioning is great, everyone would be happy to take its profits and if you look forward there is another big candle and buying oportunity which would also be in profit.. I think that only thing that is missing is that you incorporate tp, sl, 1st tp, trailing and be in pips to the EA in addition to the atr values, so that you can trade either way, or that you can combine both. lp Dragan

In fact the other big candle was traded also, see attached image.
So out of this micro-trend we got two trades (Yellow Rectangles), but look at what we missed(Gray Rectangle).
We exited a winning Buy Trade (missing the momentum that came with the second big candle), and then opened a new buy trade. Foolish isn't it? There were no Opposite Signal during this micro-trend.

As for your second suggestion on having levels in Pips in addition to ATR multiples, we had this option in the earlier versions but was only complicating things, specially if you intend to run the EA on multiple pairs.

ATR multiples can be easily converted to pips (and this is in fact implemented inside the EA), and ATR multiples makes more sense as they can be easily applied to any pair, any time frame.

Regards,

Khalil
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm30_72.png Size: 42 KB
No guts, no glory
  • #277
  • Apr 14, 2014 4:43am Apr 14, 2014 4:43am
I am raising these issues on trades taken by BC4 as a preparation for BC5, and as I always do, settings will be flexible so that you can enable it or disable to reach your optimum settings for each pair/tf.

We started the testing with M30 in order to have more trades to evaluate, although I preferred a larger time frame (H4 ), but what done is done. And I'll continue using the M30 time frame for the rest of this test.

I encourage other traders who have the time to test the EA on other time frames (shorter and longer), and on some exotic pairs, and post their findings in order to have some team work here, which will minimize the time needed to reach the final version.
No guts, no glory
  • #278
  • Apr 14, 2014 4:53am Apr 14, 2014 4:53am
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} In fact the other big candle was traded also, see attached image. So out of this micro-trend we got two trades (Yellow Rectangles), but look at what we missed(Gray Rectangle). We exited a winning Buy Trade (missing the momentum that came with the second big candle), and then opened a new buy trade. Foolish isn't it? There were no Opposite Signal during this micro-trend. As for your second suggestion on having levels in Pips in addition to ATR multiples, we had this option in the earlier versions but was only complicating things, specially...
Hi Abokwaik,

I think that those two trades are great and it doesn't matter that you missed the grey area. When you got the first trade, you didn't know what will happen next, so you didn't miss anything. My view is that you will never get everything.
I would very much agree with your idea about the SL being placed below or above the candle and big candle value in pips instead of ATR.

lp

Dragan
fxkeys
  • #279
  • Apr 14, 2014 5:45am Apr 14, 2014 5:45am
Quoting dragan9
{quote} Hi Abokwaik, I think that those two trades are great and it doesn't matter that you missed the grey area. When you got the first trade, you didn't know what will happen next, so you didn't miss anything. My view is that you will never get everything. I would very much agree with your idea about the SL being placed below or above the candle and big candle value in pips instead of ATR. lp Dragan

Right. No one knows for sure what will happen next. My idea was that instead of Stop Trailing, why don't we try Profit Trailing. Because in most of the winning trades we gave back so much to the market.
No guts, no glory
  • #280
  • Apr 14, 2014 7:19am Apr 14, 2014 7:19am
Technical:

I am thinking of how to best implement Profit Trailing (or in other words Taking Profit at pre-defined steps).

Requirement Explanation:

We have a setting parameter for Partial Profit Taking in terms of ATR multiples, currently set in the EA to 10.
So, for example if the BigCandle Trigger size (set currently to 8xATR) was 40 pips, then EA will take partial profit (fixed now at 50% of original position size) when the trade is positive (40x(10/8)) = +50 pips.
My new idea is the 50% be a variable settable by the trader. So suppose the trader set this to 20%. This will mean that EA should take profit on 20% of the original position each time the trade moves additional 50 pips in our favor.
At the first Profit Taking, SL will be moved to BE, and stay there, not trailed, in order to allow for pull backs without exiting the trade.

Implementation:

Option 1: Open multiple orders each with different profit taking, and divide the position size equally between them.
Example:using the numbers above, and using 20% as profit steps. the EA will open (100/20) = 5 trades. All with the same Stop Loss. 1st with TP=50 pips, 2nd with TP 100 pips, 3rd TP 150, 4th TP 200 pips, 5th TP 250 pips.
Once 1st TP is hit, SL for all trades will be moved to break even (opening price).

The disadvantage with this option on the current account linked to TE is that the minimum lot size to open is 0.1, so looking at the above example the positions total will be 0.5, each trade is 0.1, which could be more than the desired risk percentage.

Option 2: Open one position. and Partially close 20% of original position, each time the price makes additional 50 pips. This option is ideal, but how to know the Original Position. I though of using the Comment field and save the original position there, but comment field will get changed by the broker. Or maybe looking at the history and calculate the original size for the open trade from all related orders ...

EDIT: Please note that we can not use calculated memory variables as they will get reset when a disconnection occur. This is a current bug with BC4.
No guts, no glory
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