Could any one with backtesting expertise please post results regarding the correlation of EUR/USD's first 4h candle of the day vs the same day's daily candle. Also the correlation between the day's first 4h candle vs the previous day's daily candle. e.g if the day's first 4h candle was green how did the daily candle end up. Similarly if the day's first 4 hr candle was green what was the previous days daily candle. The period of study could be one year or max two years. This knowledge could benefit a lot of traders. Thanks
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
So I had fiddle here is my analysis for the AUDUSD H4 bars (with server time GMT+3):
R output:
A chart of the output:
I'll upload the R code to my FF stats collection thread here.
I'm guessing this stat might be more interesting for the Yen pairs and crosses but for AUDUSD its worth noting that day of the week has no impact the bias and that the bias occurs about every 1 in 3 days.
Before anyone asks for it in MT4 - I don't write analysis in MQL4. If you don't understand why go and hammer a nail into hardwood with a shoe..... hard when your not using the right tool isn't it? If you follow the above mentioned thread I will eventually start adding charts for the identified setups/points of interest.
Cheers,
ninety47.
R output:
Inserted Code
H4 to D1 bias
=============
Overall:
Total observations: 3862
Invalid D1 bars (NAs): 26
Succesful bias bars: 1403 ( 36.57% )
Failed bias bars: 2433 ( 63.43% )
Break down by day of the week:
Bias
Day Bearish None Bullish
Monday 16.4 64.6 19.0
Tuesday 17.6 61.3 21.1
Wednesday 15.9 64.5 19.7
Thursday 16.0 63.8 20.2
Friday 16.8 62.9 20.3 A chart of the output:
I'll upload the R code to my FF stats collection thread here.
I'm guessing this stat might be more interesting for the Yen pairs and crosses but for AUDUSD its worth noting that day of the week has no impact the bias and that the bias occurs about every 1 in 3 days.
Before anyone asks for it in MT4 - I don't write analysis in MQL4. If you don't understand why go and hammer a nail into hardwood with a shoe..... hard when your not using the right tool isn't it? If you follow the above mentioned thread I will eventually start adding charts for the identified setups/points of interest.
Cheers,
ninety47.
Hi fffx,
Glad you found the results useful. I mean this in the most sincere way but I'm just not interested in writing that kind of a filter. The idea just doesn't really fit my approach to trading. That said I encourage you to export the data from MT4 and load in it Excel or LibreOffice Calc (this is one is free if you can't afford Excel or dislike Micrsoft etc) and learn to do some analysis. The key difference I can see between successful traders (either from books e.g. Market Wizards, forums like this or friends who trade for a living) is that at some point they all compiled statistics and hunted out patterns and setups.
To export data from MT4, open the terminal:
Glad you found the results useful. I mean this in the most sincere way but I'm just not interested in writing that kind of a filter. The idea just doesn't really fit my approach to trading. That said I encourage you to export the data from MT4 and load in it Excel or LibreOffice Calc (this is one is free if you can't afford Excel or dislike Micrsoft etc) and learn to do some analysis. The key difference I can see between successful traders (either from books e.g. Market Wizards, forums like this or friends who trade for a living) is that at some point they all compiled statistics and hunted out patterns and setups.
To export data from MT4, open the terminal:
- Press F2 or Go to the "Tools"menu and select "History Center"
- Select the currency pair you want and press the download button.
- Once the download is complete press the Export Button
- Save the file as ASCII Text (CSV) data.
You can then easily import this into Excel or LibreOffice Calc - If you have trouble just Google for "import CSV file Excel" or similar. If this is all new to you, then you'll probably need to learn some worksheet functions etc But then you can go as quant as want on that bad boy! 
Also don't forget to share your results here as well - I'm sharing so that other traders can benefit and will hopefully share their data (as many people have here already) 
Good luck!
ninety47
Hi Conglom,
I can see the logic and I'd love yes but if was that simple we'd all be retired forex traders in 6 months.
Essentially the Chi-squared test just show that for the data I used there is an association between the resulting distribution of bullish, bearish and "no bias" for some currency pairs (namely a number of the Yen pairs - will address that below). Though as you've pointed out most of these pairs show no bias around 50-60% of the time (bias being set by the type of the bar printed in the first 4 hours of the day). The "no bias" outcome doesn't take into account:
If you follow the link (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post7069607) in the post you quoted you see the analysis for:
So it means - if you have about 60% of "no bias" go short when the first H4 candle is green and long when it is red. Should result in about 60% winning trades then. Could be a start of a strategy where more details have to be found.
I can see the logic and I'd love yes but if was that simple we'd all be retired forex traders in 6 months.
Essentially the Chi-squared test just show that for the data I used there is an association between the resulting distribution of bullish, bearish and "no bias" for some currency pairs (namely a number of the Yen pairs - will address that below). Though as you've pointed out most of these pairs show no bias around 50-60% of the time (bias being set by the type of the bar printed in the first 4 hours of the day). The "no bias" outcome doesn't take into account:
- how far against the "bias bar" price moved,
- how much it missed being classified as biased day (e.g. some of these might have missed out by one 1 pip),
- the relative price action e.g. near support/resistance or reversal patterns like pin bars
- event impacts e.g. news was not considered in the calculations.
As I mentioned the flip side of the no-bias is that 40-50% of the time the bias is set by the first 4 hours of trading in a day. For simplicity if you assume an even split between bearish and bullish you could say for example 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 Mondays the bias works. Which translates to need a return of 3 times your risk to break even for (1 in 4 days) and 4 times for the later. Tall order given you stops may need to be pretty big. So you need to find something to filter the bad ones (the 75-80% that are false signals - quite a lot to clean out).
Its also important not to put much stock in the results of this analysis because it is a VERY simple threshold analysis and reduces all the information contained in the price down to essentially a binary value (biased or not-biased).
On issue of significant relationships identified for the Yen pairs is likely due in part to the fact that my data is GMT+3 (NY close midnight) so the first bar of the day is print during the Asian session. A way to investigate if this is the case would be to run the analysis and use London or the Frankfurt open as the start of the day instead on New York close (Sydney open).
So whilst I think that the bias analysis result isn't very effective on its own, knowing about it and using as a form of (weak) confluence with other set ups is how I think this basic information could be used e.g. if the first bar of the day prints a bearish pin bar into resistance at the top of a rally then you have the knowledge that on its own that bearish H4 bar has a 20-25% chance of bias the rest of the days price action.
Can you analyze the EURUSD also, please?
If you follow the link (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post7069607) in the post you quoted you see the analysis for:
- AUDCAD
- AUDCHF
- AUDJPY
- AUDNZD
- AUDUSD
- CADJPY
- CHFJPY
- EURAUD
- EURCHF
- EURGBP
- EURJPY
- EURUSD
- GBPAUD
- GBPCHF
- GBPJPY
- GBPUSD
- NZDJPY
- NZDUSD
- USDCHF
- USDJPY
Regards,
ninety47